Last major update issued on April 17, 2014 at 05:05 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update April 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update April 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update April 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update April 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update April 2, 2014)]
[POES auroral activity level October
2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated April 17, 2014]
[Presentation 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf)]
The geomagnetic field was quiet on April 16. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 272 and 345 km/s. A weak disturbance began late in the day and has caused unsettled conditions early on April 17.
Solar flux at 17h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 173.1 (increasing 21.8 over the last solar rotation, the measurement at 17h UTC was used due to an M1 flare enhancing the flux at 20h UTC). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 151.9. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.4). Three hour interval K indices: 11111012 (planetary), 01122322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level.
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions in 2K resolution (SN: 386) and 14 active regions in 1K resolution (SN: 270) SDO images on the visible solar disk.
Region 12032 [N11W42] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12033 [N11W31] was quiet and stable.
Region 12034 [N04W12] developed with new flux emerging in the central and trailing sections. C and minor M class flares are possible.
Region 12035 [S16E09] was fairly active with some decay observed, particularly in the central and trailing spot sections. Another minor M class flare is possible. C5+ flares: C5.2 at 08:44, C7.5/1F at 12:51, M1.0/1N at 19:59 UTC.
Region 12036 [S18W13] decayed slowly and was remarkably quiet. An M class flare is still a possibility.
Region 12037 [S09W13] decayed and lost the magnetic delta structures. There is still polarity intermixing and a minor M class flare is possible.
Region 12038 [S13E52] was quiet and stable.
Region 12039 [N14E10] decayed slowly losing all umbrae on both polarities.
Region 12040 [N24W02] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 12041 [S20W29] emerged on April 15 and was numbered by SWPC the next day.
New region 12042 [N19E68] rotated into view and developed quickly. The region produced a few low level C flares. A minor M class flare is possible.
Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3323 [S16E32] was quiet and stable.
New region S3330 [N17E30] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3331 [S11W03] emerged with penumbra spots.
April 14-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A small trans equatorial coronal hole (CH612) rotated across the central meridian on April 16.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of active intervals on April 17 and quiet on April 18. Weak effects from CH612 could cause unsettled intervals on April 19.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejection (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
NOAA swapped positions for ARs 12039 and 12040 on April 16.
see AR 12040
|Total spot count:||135||246||130|
|Sunspot number:||245||386||270||(total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)|
|Weighted SN:||190||299||183||(Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)|
|Relative sunspot number (Wolf number):||147||135||149||k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)|
|Month||Average solar flux||International sunspot number
|Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2013.10||132.1||131.2||85.6||(74.9 projected, +1.8)||7.71|
|2013.11||148.3||145.1||77.6||(74.9 projected, -0.0)||5.68|
|2013.12||147.7||143.1||90.3||(74.4 projected, -0.5)||4.68|
|2014.01||157.4||152.4||82.0||(74.3 projected, -0.1)||5.44|
|166.3||102.8 (cycle peak)||(73.7 projected, -0.6)||10.70|
|2014.03||149.9||148.5||92.2||(73.8 projected, +0.1)||4.88|
|2014.04||146.0 (1)||65.0 (2A) / 121.8 (2B) / 107.4 (2C)||(73.0 projected, -0.8)||(6.8)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.