Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on October 22, 2014 at 05:45 UTC. Updates will be irregular until October 27.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)]
[Solar cycles 23-24 (last update October 1, 2014)] [Cycle 24 progress (last update October 1, 2014) ]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update October 1, 2014)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update October 1, 2014)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update October 10, 2014)]

[Noon SDO sunspot count 1K Reference: 4K (large file) (updated daily)]

[POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated October 11, 2014]
[Presentations: 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013 (pdf) / 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on October 21. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 531 and 749 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream.

Solar flux at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 199 (increasing 54.3 over the last solar rotation). The 90 day 10.7 flux at 1 AU was 137.3. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.8). Three hour interval K indices: 32323343 (planetary), 22333332 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level.

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 285) and 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 182) SDO images on the visible solar disk.

Region 12187 [S09W54] was quiet and stable.
Region 12191 [S12W38] was quiet and stable.
Region 12192 [S14E23] is still growing and has become the region with the largest area of any cycle 24 regions. There are multiple magnetic delta structures within the huge main penumbral structure (which spans nearly 10 degrees latitudinally and 13 degrees longitudinally). There's a moderate to high chance of a major (proton) flare until the region rotates out of view in 8-9 days time. The region was the source of a major M8.7 long duration event peaking at 01:59 UTC on October 22 (at the time of writing there is no relevant imagery to determine if there was a CME associated with this event).
Region 12193 [N03W18] was quiet and stable.
New region 12194 [S12E58] rotated into view on October 19 and was numbered by SPWC two days later.

Spotted regions not numbered (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S3921 [N12E06] was quiet and stable.
New region S3926 [N07E83] rotated partly into view.
New region S3927 [S25W12] emerged with a penumbra spot.
New region S3928 [S08W26] was observed with penumbra spots.

C2+ flares (GOES):

Magnitude Peak time (UTC) Location AR Comment
C4.2 02:20 S08E33 12192  
C5.7 06:14 S11E31 12192  
C2.9 06:57 S14E29 12192  
C3.1/1F 08:10 S08E28 12192  
C6.3 10:58   12192  
C4.4 12:28   S3926  
M1.2 13:38   12192  
C4.0 19:10   12192  
C6.5/1F 20:22 S16E25 12192  
C3.4 22:04   12192  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 19-21: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH640) was in an Earth facing position on October 19-22.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on October 22-24 due to effects from CH640.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions

(Click on image for 2K resolution) Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered
detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlay
Comment
SWPC Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12187 2014.10.11 3 6 1 S08W53 0170 CSO CHO area: 0290

location: S09W54

12189 2014.10.11
2014.10.14
      N23W77           plage
S3900 2014.10.13       N03W31           plage
12191 2014.10.14
2014.10.15
  3 1 S11W38 0008   AXX  
12190 2014.10.14       N22W37           plage
S3910 2014.10.16       S17W19           plage
12192 2014.10.16
2014.10.17
66 144 74 S14E19 2410 FKC FKC beta-gamma-delta

location: S14E23

area: 3560

S3914 2014.10.16       N05W13           plage
S3915 2014.10.17       S24W21           plage
S3916 2014.10.17       S25W34           plage
S3917 2014.10.17       N18W53           plage
12193 2014.10.18
2014.10.19
9 28 8 N04W18 0080 DAO DAO area: 0140
S3921 2014.10.19   4 3 N12E06 0013   BXO  
12194 2014.10.19
2014.10.21
2 3 2 S13E58 0130 CSO DAO area: 0160
S3926 2014.10.21   2 1 N07E83 0120   HAX    
S3927 2014.10.21   1 1 S25W12 0003   AXX    
S3928 2014.10.21   4 1 S08W26 0008   AXX    
Total spot count: 80 195 92  
Sunspot number: 120 285 182  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 105 230 127  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 72 100 100 k * (sunspot number). k = 0.6 for SWPC, k = 0.35 for MSN 2K, k = 0.55 for MSN 1K (MSN=Magnetic Sunspot Number)

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2013.06 110.1 113.7 52.5 62.6 (+2.7) 12.60
2013.07 115.5 119.3 57.0 65.5 (+2.9) 9.47
2013.08 114.6 118.3 66.0 69.0 (+3.5) 8.27
2013.09 102.6 103.7 36.9 73.1 (+4.1) 5.23
2013.10  132.1 131.2 85.6 75.0 (+1.9) 7.71
2013.11  148.3 145.1 77.6 75.4 (+0.4) 5.68
2013.12 147.7 143.1 90.3 76.0 (+0.6) 4.68
2014.01 157.4 152.4 81.8 77.3 (+1.3) 5.44
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 102.3 (cycle peak) 78.4 (+1.1) 10.70
2014.03 149.9 148.5 91.9 80.8 (+2.4) 4.88
2014.04 143.9 144.8 84.7 (82.7 projected, +1.9) 7.88
2014.05 129.7 132.9 75.2 (82.3 projected, -0.4) 5.75
2014.06 122.0 125.8 71.0 (81.1 projected, -1.2) 6.72
2014.07 137.4 141.8 72.5 (79.4 projected, -1.7) 4.50
2014.08 124.7 127.9 74.7 (77.1 projected, -2.3) 7.71
2014.09 146.2   87.6 (73.8 projected, -3.3) 9.78
2014.10 137.7 (1)   54.8 (2A) / 81.0 (2B) / 85.2 (2C) (71.4 projected, -2.4) (8.5)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official WDC-SILSO international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Boulder SN current month average to date. 2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.