Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on August 15, 2022 at 07:05 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (August 7, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (August 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (August 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (August 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (August 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 14. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 455 and 544 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 125.5 - decreasing 23.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 108.26). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.6). Three hour interval K indices: 32211101 (planetary), 33212311 (Boulder), 53212201 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 292) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 156) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13074 [S17W50] was quiet and stable.
Region 13075 [N23W30] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13076 [N15W22] decayed slowly with the main penumbra fragmenting into smaller penumbrae.
Region 13078 [S24E08] developed significantly as new flux emerged. Polarities are intermixed and there are many spots in a relatively small area. Minor class flaring will become likely if the region continues to develop. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 03:40, C1.0 @ 06:29, C1.1 @ 18:10, C1.0 @ 19:18 UT
Region 13079 [S11W37] was less active than on the previous day. There is still polarity intermixing in the trailing spot section. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 08:31, C1.3 @ 21:54 UT
Region 13080 [N19W65] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13081 [N11E31] produced a few small C flares and has, despite the presence of many spots, a fairly simple magnetic layout. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 04:47, C1.2 @ 14:57, C1.0 @ 15:55 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7766 [S10E22] was quiet and stable.
S7767 [N17W24] decayed further. The region was the main source of a long duration C2 event peaking at 12:35 UT. A partial halo CME was associated with this event.
S7771 [S27E01] was quiet and stable.
New region S7776 [N20W22] emerged before noon with several spots to the north of ARs 13076 and S7767. The development of this region may have triggered the C2 flare in AR 7767.
New region S7778 [S09E71] rotated into view with a tiny spot.
New region S7779 [N11E13] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7780 [N14W57] emerged with a tiny spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.4 12:35   S7767 GOES16 LDE, partial halo CME
C5.3 14:00 S11W33 13079 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

August 12-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
August 14: A partial halo CME was observed after a long duration C2 event, mainly in AR S7767 but also extending northwards to AR S7776, peaking just after noon. The CME could reach Earth on August 17.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A boomerang shaped recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1094) will rotate across the central meridian on August 14-17.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet conditions are likely on August 15-16. Quiet to minor storm conditions is expected for August 17-20 due to effects from CH1094 and the August 14 CME.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13071 2022.08.01
2022.08.03
1     S18W90 0120 HSX    

rotated out of view

13074 2022.08.04
2022.08.05
1 6 3 S16W52 0110 HSX CSO

area: 0140

location: S17W50

13075 2022.08.05
2022.08.07
  3   N18W44 0005   BXO location: N23W30
13076 2022.08.06
2022.08.07
9 9 6 N16W23 0090 CAI CAO SWPC includes AR S7767 in this group

location: N15W22

area: 0070

S7755 2022.08.07       N30W46            
13077 2022.08.07
2022.08.09
      S18W74         location: S17W71
13078 2022.08.09
2022.08.10
5 28 13 S25E06 0060 CAO DAC beta-gamma

area: 0100

location: S24E08

S7763 2022.08.09       N30W54            
S7766 2022.08.10   3   S10E22 0006   BXO  
S7767 2022.08.11   9 3 N17W24 0015   BXO reversed polarities
13081 2022.08.11
2022.08.13
13 45 19 N10E31 0160 DAI DAI location: N11E31

area: 0260

13080 2022.08.11
2022.08.12
  2 2 N20W66 0004   AXX

location: N19W65

13079 2022.08.11
2022.08.12
15 24 11 S11W39 0130 CAI DAI beta-gamma

location: S11W37

S7771 2022.08.11   1   S27E01 0001   AXX  
S7773 2022.08.12       N23W12            
S7774 2022.08.13       S12W24            
S7775 2022.08.13       N36E04          
S7776 2022.08.14   15 6 N20W22 0050   DRI      
S7777 2022.08.14       N26W00          
S7778 2022.08.14   1   S09E71 0002   AXX    
S7779 2022.08.14   5 3 N11E13 0010   BXO    
S7780 2022.08.14   1   N14W57 0001   AXX    
Total spot count: 44 152 66  
Sunspot number: 104 292 156  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 74 180 94  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 114 161 125  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 (65.8 projected, +5.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 (70.8 projected, +5.0) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.9 projected, +5.1) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.4 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.5 (88.3 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (95.5 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 111.5 (1)   29.9 (2A) / 66.2 (2B) / 92.5 (2C) (102.0 projected, +6.5) (10.8)
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +4.9)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (123.7 projected, +6.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.