Last major update issued on August 8, 2010 at 06:30 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on August 7. Solar wind speed ranged between 355 and 413 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 23h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 81.8 (at 20h UTC the flux was 90.5, however, it was flare enhanced and the measurement at 23h is used instead). The planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.8). Three hour interval K indices: 12111111 (planetary), 11221211 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 3 spotted regions.
Region 11092 was quiet and stable.
Region 11093 decayed slowly. Flare: M1.0/2F at 18:24 UTC. This flare was associated with a moderate type II radio sweep and a large and wide CME.
Region 11095 changed slowly and remains simply structured.
August 5-6: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were seen in LASCO or STEREO
August 7: An impressive CME was observed in STEREO-B images after the M1 flare in region 11093. The CME is highly likely Earth directed.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A small, recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH416) was Earth facing on August 5.
Image courtesy of SDO (NASA) and the AIA consortium. Annotations are my own. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on August 8-9 due to effects from CH416. Sometime between 18h UTC on August 9 and 18h on August 10 the CME observed on August 7 will likely reach Earth and cause unsettled to major storm conditions.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO (NASA) / AIA 4500
|11094||2010.08.05||3||N25W85||0030||BXO||rotated out of view|
|Total spot count:||7||5|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2009.07||68.2||3.2||3.6 (+0.9)||5.49 / 4.55|
|2009.08||67.3||0.0||4.8 (+1.2)||5.70 / 4.89|
|2009.09||70.5||4.3||6.2 (+1.4)||3.88 / 3.61|
|2009.10||72.6||4.8||7.1 (+0.9)||3.66 / 3.56|
|2009.11||73.6||4.1||7.6 (+0.5)||2.45 / 2.63|
|2009.12||76.7||10.8||8.3 (+0.7)||1.41 / 1.92|
|2010.01||81.1||13.2||9.3 (+1.0)||2.93 / 3.07|
|2010.02||84.7||18.8||(10.6 predicted, +1.3)||4.15 / 4.61|
|2010.03||83.4||15.4||(12.3 predicted, +1.7)||4.58 / 4.65|
|2010.04||75.9||7.9||(13.9 predicted, +1.6)||10.22 / 10.24|
|2010.05||73.8||8.8||(15.3 predicted, +1.4)||9.18 / 8.15|
|2010.06||72.5||13.5||(16.7 predicted, +1.4)||8.17 / 6.85|
|2010.07||79.8||16.1||(18.3 predicted, +1.6)||6.31|
|2010.08||81.0 (1)||7.1 (2)||(19.5 predicted, +1.2)||(13.33)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.