Last major update issued on February 15, 2010 at 05:20 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on February 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 276 and 330 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field become stronger and was moderately southwards after 21h UTC. This caused an increase in geomagnetic disturbance levels.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 89.4. The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.9). Three hour interval K indices: 00111003 (planetary), 00222012 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk.
Region 11046 decayed further and was quiet.
Region 11048 was mostly unchanged. Occasional C flares are possible. Flare: C4.3 at 12:04 UTC.
February 13-14: No obvious Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO images.
February 12: A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO images after the M8 flare in region 11046.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH392) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on February 11-12. A new coronal hole (CH393) in the southern hemisphere will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on February 15.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 23:12 UTC on February 14. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on February 15-16 due to CME and coronal hole effects. Quiet conditions are likely on February 17 and quiet to unsettled on February 18 as another coronal hole stream becomes geoeffective.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SWPC
|Location at midnight||Area||SWPC
|11048||2010.02.13||2||2||N20E64||0010||BXO||classification was CSO at midnight, area 0040|
|Total spot count:||8||8|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average Ap
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2009.07||68.2||3.5||3.6 (+0.9)||5.49 / 4.55|
|2009.08||67.3||0.0||(5.0 predicted, +1.4)||5.70 / 4.89|
|2009.09||70.5||4.2||(6.8 predicted, +1.8)||3.88 / 3.61|
|2009.10||72.6||4.6||(8.7 predicted, +1.9)||3.66 / 3.56|
|2009.11||73.6||4.2||(10.7 predicted, +2.0)||2.45 / 2.63|
|2009.12||76.7||10.6||(12.9 predicted, +2.2)||1.41 / 1.92|
|2010.01||81.1||13.1||(15.4 predicted, +2.5)||2.93 / 3.07|
|2010.02||86.0 (1)||18.0 (2)||(18.3 predicted, +2.9)||(4.54)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.