Last major update issued on February 17, 2010 at 05:00 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on February 16. Solar wind speed ranged between 287 and 343 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 86.8. The planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.4). Three hour interval K indices: 42330103 (planetary), 42440213 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A7 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk.
Region 11046 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11048 lost the trailing spot and gained new spots near the leader
spot.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S752] This region emerged with a couple of tiny spots in the southeast
quadrant on February 16. Location at midnight: S19E26
February 14-16: No obvious Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO images.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago
A new coronal hole (CH393) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on February 15.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 23:24 UTC on February 16. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on February 17-19.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered | SWPC spot count |
STAR spot count |
Location at midnight | Area | SWPC Classification |
Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11046 | 2010.02.07 | 3 | 3 | N22W49 | 0040 | CRO | classification was BXO at midnight, area 0010 |
| 11047 | 2010.02.08 | S18W35 | plage | ||||
| 11048 | 2010.02.13 | 5 | 5 | N21E34 | 0010 | BXO | classification was CRO at midnight, area 0020 |
| S752 | 2010.02.16 | 2 | S19E26 | 0000 | BXO | ||
| Total spot count: | 8 | 10 | |||||
| SSN: | 28 | 40 | |||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000.04 | 184.2 | 125.5 | 120.8 cycle 23 sunspot max. |
|
| 2000.07 | 202.3 | 170.1 | 119.8 | |
| 2001.12 | 235.1 | 132.2 | 114.6 (-0.9) | |
| 2008.07 | 65.7 | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
| 2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
| 2009.01 | 69.8 | 1.3 | 1.8 (+0.1) | 3.70 |
| 2009.02 | 70.0 | 1.4 | 1.9 (+0.1) | 4.68 |
| 2009.03 | 69.2 | 0.7 | 2.0 (+0.1) | 4.85 |
| 2009.04 | 69.7 | 1.2 | 2.2 (+0.2) | 4.52 |
| 2009.05 | 70.5 | 2.9 | 2.3 (+0.1) | 4.75 |
| 2009.06 | 68.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 (+0.4) | 5.22 |
| 2009.07 | 68.2 | 3.5 | 3.6 (+0.9) | 5.49 / 4.55 |
| 2009.08 | 67.3 | 0.0 | (5.0 predicted, +1.4) | 5.70 / 4.89 |
| 2009.09 | 70.5 | 4.2 | (6.8 predicted, +1.8) | 3.88 / 3.61 |
| 2009.10 | 72.6 | 4.6 | (8.7 predicted, +1.9) | 3.66 / 3.56 |
| 2009.11 | 73.6 | 4.2 | (10.7 predicted, +2.0) | 2.45 / 2.63 |
| 2009.12 | 76.7 | 10.6 | (12.9 predicted, +2.2) | 1.41 / 1.92 |
| 2010.01 | 81.1 | 13.1 | (15.4 predicted, +2.5) | 2.93 / 3.07 |
| 2010.02 | 86.1 (1) | 20.0 (2) | (18.3 predicted, +2.9) | (5.41) |
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower.
3) Running average based on the
daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on
official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.