Last major update issued on June 12, 2010 at 04:45 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on June 11. Solar wind speed ranged between 348 and 449 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 74.6. The planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.9). Three hour interval K indices: 22111111 (planetary), 22112112 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight there were 2 spotted regions on the visible solar disk.
Region 11080 was quiet and stable.
New region 11081 emerged quickly in the northwest quadrant. The region has polarity intermixing, and a magnetic delta structure could be forming in the leading spot section. An M2.0 flare (with an associated moderately strong type II radio sweep) was recorded at 00:57 UTC on June 12. Further M class flares are possible.
June 9-11: No obvious Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO
June 12: A CME was observed in STEREO-A images after the M2 flare in region 11081. Too few images are currently available to forecast whether or not this CME could have any influence on the geomagnetic field.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH408) will rotate into an Earth facing position on June 12-13.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on June 12. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on June 12-14 becoming quiet to active on June 15-16 due to effects from CH408. Should the CME observed early on June 12 have any Earth directed components, it could influence the geomagnetic field on June 15.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SWPC
|Location at midnight||Area||SWPC
|11078||2010.06.08||1||S22W86||0005||AXX||rotated out of view|
|11080||2010.06.09||4||7||S23W54||0100||DAI||classification was DSO at midnight, area 0050|
|11081||2010.06.11||8||18||N22W43||0050||BXO||classification was DAI at midnight, area 0080
|Total spot count:||13||25|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2009.07||68.2||3.2||3.6 (+0.9)||5.49 / 4.55|
|2009.08||67.3||0.0||4.8 (+1.2)||5.70 / 4.89|
|2009.09||70.5||4.3||6.1 (+1.3)||3.88 / 3.61|
|2009.10||72.6||4.8||7.0 (+0.9)||3.66 / 3.56|
|2009.11||73.6||4.1||7.6 (+0.6)||2.45 / 2.63|
|2009.12||76.7||10.8||(8.2 predicted, +0.6)||1.41 / 1.92|
|2010.01||81.1||13.1||(9.2 predicted, +1.0)||2.93 / 3.07|
|2010.02||84.7||18.6||(10.7 predicted, +1.5)||4.15 / 4.61|
|2010.03||83.4||15.4||(12.5 predicted, +1.8)||4.58 / 4.65|
|2010.04||75.9||7.9||(14.1 predicted, +1.6)||10.22 / 10.24|
|2010.05||73.8||8.8||(15.4 predicted, +1.3)||9.18 / 8.15|
|2010.06||71.9 (1)||8.0 (2)||(16.9 predicted, +1.5)||(7.63)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Current impact on the monthly SSN based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.