Last major update issued on June 13, 2010 at 04:45 UTC.
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The geomagnetic field was quiet on June 12. Solar wind speed ranged between 322 and 354 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 76.2. The planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.4). Three hour interval K indices: 10001122 (planetary), 01011022 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk.
Region 11079 reemerged with a few spots and is rotating out of view at
the southwest limb.
Region 11080 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11081 decayed after the flare activity early in the day. There's still a chance of another minor M class event before the region rotates out of view. Flares: M2.0 at 00:57 UTC (associated with a moderately strong type II sweep and a small CME. This event was likely the source of a weak proton flux enhancement later in the day), C1.0 at 04:06 and C6.1 at 09:22 (associated with a moderately strong type IV radio sweep).
June 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were seen in LASCO or STEREO images.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH408) was in an Earth facing position on June 12-13. CH408 has become better defined in the central parts over the last rotation.
Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on June 13. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on June 13-14 becoming quiet to minor storm on June 15-16 due to effects from CH408.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||SWPC
|Location at midnight||Area||SWPC
|11079||2010.06.09||2||2||S24W82||0010||BXO||classification was CRO at midnight, area 0020|
|11080||2010.06.09||4||3||S23W67||0050||DRO||classification was BXO at midnight, area 0010|
|11081||2010.06.11||10||6||N24W58||0080||DRO||classification was DSO at midnight, area 0040|
|Total spot count:||16||11|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2009.07||68.2||3.2||3.6 (+0.9)||5.49 / 4.55|
|2009.08||67.3||0.0||4.8 (+1.2)||5.70 / 4.89|
|2009.09||70.5||4.3||6.1 (+1.3)||3.88 / 3.61|
|2009.10||72.6||4.8||7.0 (+0.9)||3.66 / 3.56|
|2009.11||73.6||4.1||7.6 (+0.6)||2.45 / 2.63|
|2009.12||76.7||10.8||(8.2 predicted, +0.6)||1.41 / 1.92|
|2010.01||81.1||13.1||(9.2 predicted, +1.0)||2.93 / 3.07|
|2010.02||84.7||18.6||(10.7 predicted, +1.5)||4.15 / 4.61|
|2010.03||83.4||15.4||(12.5 predicted, +1.8)||4.58 / 4.65|
|2010.04||75.9||7.9||(14.1 predicted, +1.6)||10.22 / 10.24|
|2010.05||73.8||8.8||(15.4 predicted, +1.3)||9.18 / 8.15|
|2010.06||72.3 (1)||9.5 (2)||(16.9 predicted, +1.5)||(7.27)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Current impact on the monthly SSN based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.