Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Last major update issued on May 2, 2010 at 04:00 UTC. Minor update posted at 14:05 UTC.

[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22 and 23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 2, 10, 13, 17, 20 and 23 (last update October 4, 2007)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports (last update April 2, 2010)]

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on May 1. Solar wind speed ranged between 288 and 393 km/s.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 77.8. The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.8). Three hour interval K indices: 02011212 (planetary), 02011110 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A5 level.

At midnight there were 3 spotted regions on the visible solar disk.

Region 11064 decayed slowly and could become spotless today.

Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S763] This region emerged with a tiny spot in the southeast quadrant on May 1. Location at midnight: S26E29
[S764] An active region rotated into view at the northeast limb. Flare: C5.7 at 01:39 UTC.

Update posted at 09:40 UTC: The interplanetary magnetic field has become stronger and swung moderately southwards over the past few hours. Active to minor storm conditions are possible.

Update posted at 14:05 UTC: The disturbance which began earlier today is intensifying and it appears that major and even severe storming is possible for the remainder of the day. The source is probably CH402.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

April 29 - May 1: No obvious Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO images.

Coronal holes

Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago

A well defined recurrent coronal hole (CH402) in the northern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on April 30 and May 1.

Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 02:48 UTC on May 2. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on May 2. A high speed stream from CH402 will likely cause unsettled to minor storm conditions on May 3-4.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejections (2) M and X class flares (3)



1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.

Active solar regions (Recent map)

Compare to the previous day's image

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.

Active region Date numbered SWPC
spot
count
STAR
spot
count
Location at midnight Area SWPC
Classification
Comment
11063 2010.04.28     N16W25     plage
11064 2010.04.30 3 1 N16E15 0010 CRO classification was AXX at midnight, area 0000
S763 2010.05.01   1 S26E29 0000 AXX  
S764 2010.05.01   2 N24E67 0000 BXO  
Total spot count: 3 4  
SSN: 13 34  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average measured solar flux International sunspot number (SIDC) Smoothed sunspot number Average ap
(3)
2000.04 184.2 125.5 120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.
 
2000.07 202.3 170.1 119.8  
2001.12 235.1 132.2 114.6 (-0.9)  
2008.07 65.7 (SF minimum) 0.5 2.8 (-0.4)  
2008.12 69.2 0.8 1.7 (-)
sunspot minimum
3.25
2009.03 69.2 0.7 2.0 (+0.1) 4.85
2009.04 69.7 1.2 2.2 (+0.2) 4.52
2009.05 70.5 2.9 2.3 (+0.1) 4.75
2009.06 68.6 2.6 2.7 (+0.4) 5.22
2009.07 68.2 3.5 3.6 (+0.9) 5.49 / 4.55
2009.08 67.3 0.0 4.8 (+1.2) 5.70 / 4.89
2009.09 70.5 4.2 6.1 (+1.3) 3.88 / 3.61
2009.10 72.6 4.6 7.0 (+0.9) 3.66 / 3.56
2009.11 73.6 4.2 (7.7 predicted, +0.7) 2.45 / 2.63
2009.12 76.7 10.6 (8.9 predicted, +1.2) 1.41 / 1.92
2010.01 81.1 13.1 (10.2 predicted, +1.3) 2.93 / 3.07
2010.02 84.7 18.6 (11.8 predicted, +1.6) 4.15 / 4.61
2010.03 83.4 15.4 (13.7 predicted, +1.9) 4.58 / 4.65
2010.04 75.9 7.9 (15.3 predicted, +1.8) 10.22
2010.05 77.8 (1) 0.4 (2) (16.6 predicted, +1.3) (3.75)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on official NGDC ap indices.

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis, and partly on data from some of these solar data sources. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.