Last major update issued on October 15, 2010 at 03:00 UTC. Minor update posted at 05:30 UTC
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The geomagnetic field was very quiet on October 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 289 and 331 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 80.4 (down 1.8 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 2 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.6). Three hour interval K indices: 10000001 (planetary), 11000000 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class A8 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 4 spotted regions.
Region 11112 developed fairly quickly as new flux emerged. C flares
Region 11113 was mostly unchanged and displayed little activity of interest.
New region 11114 emerged in the southwest quadrant.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S822] This region became visible against the southeast limb early in the day and contains a single symmetrical spot. Location at midnight: S28E77
Minor update added at 05:30 UTC: A sudden increase in solar wind speed was observed just after 03h UTC. This may be the arrival of the CME from October 11, although the associated disturbance so far is unimpressive.
October 12-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were seen in LASCO or STEREO images.October 11: A possibly Earth directed CME was observed in STEREO images early in the day following a filament eruption (which began late on October 10) stretching northwestwards from region 11112.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent coronal hole (CH425) in the northern hemisphere will like rotate into an Earth facig position on October 17. CH425 has decayed significantly over the last solar rotation and it is uncertain if the coronal hole will produce any geomagnetic disturbance this time.
Image courtesy of SDO (NASA) and the AIA consortium. Annotations are my own. The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be initially quiet on October 15. Quiet to active conditions are possible during the latter half of October 15 and on October 16 should the CME observed on October 11 reach Earth. 16. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on October 17-19. Weak effects from CH425 are possible on October 20-21.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
Compare to the previous day's image
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered||Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO (NASA) / AIA 4500
|Total spot count:||4||20|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
cycle 23 sunspot max.
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2009.07||68.2||3.2||3.6 (+0.9)||5.49 / 4.55|
|2009.08||67.3||0.0||4.8 (+1.2)||5.70 / 4.89|
|2009.09||70.5||4.3||6.2 (+1.4)||3.88 / 3.61|
|2009.10||72.6||4.8||7.1 (+0.9)||3.66 / 3.56|
|2009.11||73.6||4.1||7.6 (+0.5)||2.45 / 2.63|
|2009.12||76.7||10.8||8.3 (+0.7)||1.41 / 1.92|
|2010.01||81.1||13.2||9.3 (+1.0)||2.93 / 3.07|
|2010.02||84.7||18.8||10.6 (+1.3)||4.15 / 4.61|
|2010.03||83.4||15.4||12.3 (+1.7)||4.58 / 4.65|
|2010.04||75.9||8.0||(13.9 predicted, +1.6)||10.22 / 10.24|
|2010.05||73.8||8.7||(15.2 predicted, +1.3)||9.18 / 8.15|
|2010.06||72.5||13.6||(16.7 predicted, +1.5)||8.17 / 6.85|
|2010.07||79.8||16.1||(18.3 predicted, +1.6)||6.31 / 5.15|
|2010.08||79.2||19.6||(19.5 predicted, +1.2)||8.49 / 7.77|
|2010.09||81.1||25.2||(20.7 predicted, +1.2)||5.33|
|2010.10||77.8 (1)||8.5 (2A) / 18.9 (2B)||(23.1 predicted, +2.4)||(5.73)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.