Last major update issued on February 15, 2011 at 05:15 UTC.
[Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (updated daily)]
[Solar wind and electron fluence charts (updated daily)
[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update February 1, 2011)]
[Solar cycles 1-20]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24 (last update February 1, 2011)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and 24 (last update February 1, 2011)]
[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (last update April 5, 2007)]
[Archived reports since January 2003 (last update February 1, 2011)]
[POES auroral activity level
charts since October 2009]
Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2104 [Nov-Dec.2010]- 2105 [Dec-Jan.2011] NEW
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on February 14. Solar wind speed ranged between 279 and 411 km/s. A solar wind shock was observed at SOHO at 15:02 UTC. Solar wind speed increased abruptly from 310 to 370 km/s and there were abrupt changes in wind density and the IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) as well.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 112.6 (increasing 31.6 over the last solar rotation - and a new high for cycle 24). The planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.5). Three hour interval K indices: 00000344 (planetary), 00111343 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B8 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted regions.
Region 11157 decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 11158 developed further and is approaching an FKC classification. There are at least 3 separate magnetic delta structures within the region. By far the most interesting one is in the large central penumbra which has a strong and unusually large delta. Further X class flares are likely. Flares: C1.6 at 02:42, C7.1 at 04:48, C8.3 at 04:49, C6.6 at 06:58, C1.8 at 08:49, C1.7 at 12:00, C9.4 at 12:53, C7.0 at 14:27, M2.2/1N at 17:26 (associated with a moderate type II radio sweep and a likely Earth directed CME) and C6.6 at 19:30 UTC. The region produced an X2.2 at 01:55 UTC on February 15. This event was associated with a larger Earth directed CME.
Region 11159 was quiet and stable.
Region 11160 added a few small spots and was quiet (note that NOAA/SWPC now has this as region 11161, apparently they weren't aware that they had already numbered the region).
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S875] This region in the northeast quadrant reemerged on February 13 and was mostly unchanged on February 14 Location at midnight: N20E01
[S876] This region emerged in the southeast quadrant on February 11, was spotless the next day and reemerged with a few tiny spots on February 13. No significant changes were observed on February 14. Location at midnight: S17E32
[S878] A new region emerged in the northeast quadrant on February 13 and was mostly unchanged on February 14. Location at midnight: N15E34
[S879] This region emerged in the northwest quadrant with a single small spot on February 14. Location at midnight: N04W42
[S880] Tiny spots emerged in a plage area in the northeast quadrant on February 14. Location at midnight: N04E01
February 12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO or STEREO
February 13: A small partial halo CME was observed after the M6 flare in region 11158. The CME could reach Earth on February 15 or 16.
February 14: A CME was observed in association with an M2 event in region 11158 and could reach Earth on February 16 or 17.
February 15: Another and larger CME was observed following an X2 event in region 11158. The CME could reach Earth on February 17.
Coronal hole history (since late October 2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
No significant coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.
The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to very poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on February 15, quiet to minor storm on February 16 and unsettled to major storm on February 17 due to CME effects.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||50||84|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2009.11||73.6||4.1||7.6 (+0.5)||2.45 / 2.63|
|2009.12||76.7||10.8||8.3 (+0.7)||1.41 / 1.92|
|2010.01||81.1||13.2||9.3 (+1.0)||2.93 / 3.07|
|2010.02||84.7||18.8||10.6 (+1.3)||4.15 / 4.61|
|2010.03||83.4||15.4||12.3 (+1.7)||4.58 / 4.65|
|2010.04||75.9||8.0||14.0 (+1.7)||10.22 / 10.24|
|2010.05||73.8||8.7||15.5 (+1.5)||9.18 / 8.15|
|2010.06||72.5||13.6||16.4 (+0.9)||8.17 / 6.85|
|2010.07||79.8||16.1||16.8 (+0.4)||6.31 / 5.15|
|2010.08||79.2||19.6||(17.1 predicted, +0.3)||8.49 / 7.77|
|2010.09||81.1||25.2||(17.7 predicted, +0.6)||5.33 / 5.45|
|2010.10||81.6||23.5||(19.0 predicted, +1.3)||6.07 / 6.27|
|2010.11||82.5||21.6||(20.7 predicted, +1.7)||4.80 / 5.50|
|2010.12||84.2||14.5||(22.2 predicted, +1.5)||3.41 / 4.35|
|2011.01||83.6||19.1||(23.8 predicted, +1.6)||4.32|
|2011.02||88.6 (1)||23.9 (2A) / 47.9 (2B)||(25.5 predicted, +1.7)||(6.38)|
1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.