Last major update issued on June 14, 2011 at 03:55 UTC. Minor update posted at 18:45 UTC
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Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2109 [April-May 2011] - 2110 [May-June 2011] NEW
[Solar polar fields vs solar cycles - updated June 11, 2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 13. Solar wind speed ranged between 390 and 519 km/s under the influence of a high speed stream from CH454. That stream came to an end near 22h UTC with another high speed stream (from CH455) becoming the dominant solar wind source.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 86.6 (decreasing 4.9 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 8.4). Three hour interval K indices: 21222332 (planetary), 21232322 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 9 spotted regions.
Region 11234 developed slowly and was quiet.
Region 11235 was quiet and stable.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1049] reemerged with a single spot near the southwest limb.
[S1060] emerged in the northeast quadrant on June 11. Location at midnight: N18E09
[S1062] rotated into view at the northeast limb on June 13. Further C class flaring is likely. Location at midnight: N15E81. Flare: C1.2 at 00:55 UTC.
[S1063] emerged in the northeast quadrant on June 13. Location at midnight: N33E37
[S1064] emerged in the southeast quadrant on June 13. Location at midnight: S16E38
[S1065] emerged in the northeast quadrant on June 13. Location at midnight: N17E13
[S1066] emerged in the northwest quadrant at a high latitude on June 13. Polarities are reversed. Cycle 25 region? Location at midnight: N44W10
Minor update added at 18:45 UTC on June 14: The large region at the northeast limb, now numbered 11236 by NOAA/SWPC, continues to produce small flare and M class flares are possible. The region currently appears to have an EHO classification. An updated version of the high resolution active region map is here. Note the new region, S1067, at a high northern hemisphere latitude. The polarity fields, although nearly north-south, appear to be reversed as the positive polarity is a little further to the west compared to the opposite polarity.
A large partial halo CME was observed earlier today after an extensive filament eruption in the southeastern quadrant.
June 11-13: No obviously earth directed CMEs were observed.
Coronal hole history (since late October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
An elongated coronal hole (CH455) in the southern hemisphere was Earth facing on June 10-11. A small coronal hole (CH456) in the northern hemisphere near the equator was Earth facing on June 13.
The above coronal hole map is based on a new method where coronal holes are detected automatically. The method may need some fine tuning, however, it has significant advantages over detecting coronal holes manually. The main improvement is the ability to detect coronal holes at and just beyond the solar limbs. Early results using this method for SDO images over a span of several weeks indicate a good match between coronal holes observed over the visible disk and their extent and position at the east and west limbs. Note that the polar coronal holes are easily detected using the new method, the extent and intensity of both holes are consistent with other data sources.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on June 14-15 with a chance of a few active intervals on June 14 due to effects from CH455. Effects from CH456 could reach Earth on June 16 and cause some unsettled intervals that day and on June 17.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with polarity overlay
|Total spot count:||6||32|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2010.02||84.7||18.8||10.6 (+1.3)||4.15 / 4.61|
|2010.03||83.4||15.4||12.3 (+1.7)||4.58 / 4.65|
|2010.04||75.9||8.0||14.0 (+1.7)||10.22 / 10.24|
|2010.05||73.8||8.7||15.5 (+1.5)||9.18 / 8.15|
|2010.06||72.5||13.6||16.4 (+0.9)||8.17 / 6.85|
|2010.07||79.8||16.1||16.7 (+0.3)||6.31 / 5.15|
|2010.08||79.2||19.6||17.4 (+0.7)||8.49 / 7.77|
|2010.09||81.1||25.2||19.6 (+2.2)||5.33 / 5.45|
|2010.10||81.6||23.5||23.2 (+3.6)||6.07 / 6.27|
|2010.11||82.5||21.5||26.5 (+3.3)||4.80 / 5.50|
|2010.12||84.2||14.4||(29.4 predicted, +2.9)||3.41 / 4.35|
|2011.01||83.6||19.1||(32.6 predicted, +3.2)||4.32 / 5.51|
|2011.02||94.6||29.4||(35.2 predicted, +2.6)||5.41 / 6.44|
|2011.03||115.0||56.2||(37.5 predicted, +2.3)||7.79|
|2011.04||112.6||54.4||(40.4 predicted, +2.9)||9.71|
|2011.05||95.8||41.6||(43.7 predicted, +3.3)||9.18|
|2011.06||96.5 (1)||28.6 (2A) / 66.1 (2B)||(47.4 predicted, +3.7)||(11.0)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.