Last major update issued on May 6, 2011 at 03:50 UTC.
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[Solar cycles 21-24 (last update May 1, 2011)]
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update May 1, 2011)]
[Graphical comparison of cycles 10, 12, 13, 14, 16 and
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[Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006
(last update April 5, 2007)]
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1, 2011)]
[POES auroral activity level charts since October
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Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation
2107 [Feb.-March
2011] - 2108 [March-April
2011]
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on May 5. Solar wind speed ranged between 351 and 462 km/s.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 104.9 (decreasing 3.8 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.4). Three hour interval K indices: 33211122 (planetary), 23312121 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 7 spotted regions.
Region 11201 reemerged with spots on May 5. It is difficult to
separate this region from spots in region S988, spots are therefore currently
counted as if there is just one region.
Region 11203 displayed no significant changes and was quiet.
Region 11204 was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 11205 decayed further and could soon become spotless.
New region 11207 emerged in the northeast quadrant on May 3 and was
numbered by NOAA/SWPC two days later.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S976] was first observed with spots in the northeast quadrant on
April 28, became spotless and then reemerged with spots on May 4.
Location at midnight: N09W47
[S993] emerged with a tiny spot in a plage in the northeast quadrant on May
5. Location at midnight: N18E61
May 3-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October
2002)
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days
ago 26
days ago
A poorly defined coronal hole (CH447) in the southern hemisphere was in an Earth facing position on May 2-3.
The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on May 6-8 due to weak coronal hole streams.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejections (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
| Active region | Date numbered detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with polarity overlay |
Comment | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC | STAR SDO | SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | |||||
| 11201 | 2011.04.24 2011.04.27 |
3 | 4 | N14W70 | 0020 | BXO | BXO |
 |
||
| 11200 | 2011.04.25 2011.04.26 |
2 | S18W75 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
spotless | |||
| S974 | 2011.04.27 | S37W51 | plage | |||||||
| 11203 | 2011.04.28 | 2 | 7 | N17W15 | 0080 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N16W13 |
| S976 | 2011.04.28 | 1 | N09W47 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 11206 | 2011.04.29 2011.05.03 |
2 | N22W46 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
location: N22W41 spotless |
|||
| 11204 | 2011.04.30 2011.05.02 |
12 | 22 | N17W00 | 0120 | CAO | CAI |
 |
 |
location: N15W00 |
| 11205 | 2011.04.30 2011.05.02 |
1 | 1 | N14E09 | 0005 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
location: N12E14 |
| S985 | 2011.04.30 | N21W58 | plage | |||||||
| S986 | 2011.05.01 | S22W16 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| S988 | 2011.05.02 | N12W72 |
 |
merged with 11201 | ||||||
| S990 | 2011.05.03 | N29E26 |
 |
reversed polarities plage |
||||||
| 11207 | 2011.05.03 2011.05.05 |
3 | 5 | N24E40 | 0020 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
formerly region S991 location: N20E38 |
| S992 | 2011.05.04 | S20E22 |
 |
plage | ||||||
| S993 | 2011.05.04 | 1 | N18E61 | 0000 | AXX |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 25 | 41 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 95 | 111 | ||||||||
| Month | Average measured solar flux | International sunspot number (SIDC) | Smoothed sunspot number | Average ap (3) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008.07 | 65.7 (SF minimum) | 0.5 | 2.8 (-0.4) | |
| 2008.12 | 69.2 | 0.8 | 1.7 (-) sunspot minimum |
3.25 |
| 2010.02 | 84.7 | 18.8 | 10.6 (+1.3) | 4.15 / 4.61 |
| 2010.03 | 83.4 | 15.4 | 12.3 (+1.7) | 4.58 / 4.65 |
| 2010.04 | 75.9 | 8.0 | 14.0 (+1.7) | 10.22 / 10.24 |
| 2010.05 | 73.8 | 8.7 | 15.5 (+1.5) | 9.18 / 8.15 |
| 2010.06 | 72.5 | 13.6 | 16.4 (+0.9) | 8.17 / 6.85 |
| 2010.07 | 79.8 | 16.1 | 16.7 (+0.3) | 6.31 / 5.15 |
| 2010.08 | 79.2 | 19.6 | 17.4 (+0.7) | 8.49 / 7.77 |
| 2010.09 | 81.1 | 25.2 | 19.6 (+2.2) | 5.33 / 5.45 |
| 2010.10 | 81.6 | 23.5 | 23.2 (+3.6) | 6.07 / 6.27 |
| 2010.11 | 82.5 | 21.5 | (26.9 predicted, +3.7) | 4.80 / 5.50 |
| 2010.12 | 84.2 | 14.4 | (30.1 predicted, +3.2) | 3.41 / 4.35 |
| 2011.01 | 83.6 | 19.1 | (33.1 predicted, +3.0) | 4.32 / 5.51 |
| 2011.02 | 94.6 | 29.4 | (35.6 predicted, +2.5) | 5.41 / 6.44 |
| 2011.03 | 115.0 | 56.2 | (37.9 predicted, +2.3) | 7.79 |
| 2011.04 | 112.6 | 54.4 | (40.8 predicted, +2.9) | 9.71 |
| 2011.05 | 106.9 (1) | 11.4 (2A) / 70.4 (2B) | (44.1 predicted, +3.3) | (13.08) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2800 MHz.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder
(NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The
official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month
average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices.
Values in red are based on the official NGDC
ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
