Last major update issued on May 23, 2011 at 04:35 UTC.
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[POES auroral activity level charts since October
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Annotated geomagnetic activity charts - Carrington rotation 2108 [March-April 2011] - 2109 [April-May 2011] NEW
The geomagnetic field was quiet on May 22. Solar wind speed ranged between 372 and 494 km/s under the influence of a weak coronal hole stream.
Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 84.5 (decreasing 27.6 over the last solar rotation). The planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.3). Three hour interval K indices: 22001111 (planetary), 22112101 (Boulder).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level.
At midnight UTC the visible solar disk had 8 spotted regions.
Region 11216 was quiet and stable.
Region 11218 was quiet and stable.
Region 11219 was quiet and stable.
New region 11220 emerged in the northwest quadrant on May 21 and was numbered the next day by NOAA/SWPC.
Spotted regions not numbered by NOAA/SWPC:
[S1010] emerged in the southeast quadrant on May 15. Location at midnight: S18W31
[S1018] emerged in the northeast quadrant on May 19, became spotless on May 21 and reemerged on May 22. Location at midnight: N17W03
[S1020] emerged in the southwest quadrant on May 20. Location at midnight: S33W39
[S1023] emerged in the southwest quadrant on May 22. Location at midnight: S18W57
A filament erupted near 02h UTC on May 23 in the northeast quadrant. A CME may have been associated with this event.
May 20-22: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in LASCO and STEREO imagery.
Coronal hole history (since late October
Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH450) will likely rotate into an Earth facing position on May 24-25.
The darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on May 23-25.
|Coronal holes (1)||Coronal mass ejections (2)||M and X class flares (3)|
1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-20% probability, Yellow: 20-60% probability, Red: 60-100% probability.
(Click on image for higher resolution image) Compare to the previous day's image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue (blue-green) is positive.
Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers.
|Active region||Date numbered
|Spot count||Location at midnight||Area||Classification||SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with polarity overlay
|1||S23W94||0030||HSX||rotated out of view|
|4||9||N14W65||0010||BXO||BXO||formerly region S1022
|Total spot count:||7||32|
|Month||Average measured solar flux||International sunspot number (SIDC)||Smoothed sunspot number||Average ap
|2008.07||65.7 (SF minimum)||0.5||2.8 (-0.4)|
|2010.02||84.7||18.8||10.6 (+1.3)||4.15 / 4.61|
|2010.03||83.4||15.4||12.3 (+1.7)||4.58 / 4.65|
|2010.04||75.9||8.0||14.0 (+1.7)||10.22 / 10.24|
|2010.05||73.8||8.7||15.5 (+1.5)||9.18 / 8.15|
|2010.06||72.5||13.6||16.4 (+0.9)||8.17 / 6.85|
|2010.07||79.8||16.1||16.7 (+0.3)||6.31 / 5.15|
|2010.08||79.2||19.6||17.4 (+0.7)||8.49 / 7.77|
|2010.09||81.1||25.2||19.6 (+2.2)||5.33 / 5.45|
|2010.10||81.6||23.5||23.2 (+3.6)||6.07 / 6.27|
|2010.11||82.5||21.5||(26.9 predicted, +3.7)||4.80 / 5.50|
|2010.12||84.2||14.4||(30.1 predicted, +3.2)||3.41 / 4.35|
|2011.01||83.6||19.1||(33.1 predicted, +3.0)||4.32 / 5.51|
|2011.02||94.6||29.4||(35.6 predicted, +2.5)||5.41 / 6.44|
|2011.03||115.0||56.2||(37.9 predicted, +2.3)||7.79|
|2011.04||112.6||54.4||(40.8 predicted, +2.9)||9.71|
|2011.05||96.2 (1)||41.9 (2A) / 59.1 (2B)||(44.1 predicted, +3.3)||(7.18)|
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days). The official SIDC international sunspot number is typically 30-50% lower. 2B) Month average to date.
3) Running average based on the preliminary daily SWPC ap indices. Values in red are based on the official NGDC ap indices.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.