Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on December 20, 2021 at 08:35 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (December 1, 2021)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (December 1, 2021) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (December 1, 2021) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (December 1, 2021) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (December 1, 2021) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on December 19. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels. A high speed stream from CH1049 began to influence the field after noon.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 115.3 - increasing 37.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 80.58). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 13 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.1). Three hour interval K indices: 10012345 (planetary), 00012444 (Boulder), 10001436 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 233) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 181) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12906 [S29W43] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12907 [S21W10] decayed slowly losing area and spots. Polarity intermixing is still evident in the trailing spot section. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 11:59, C1.8 @ 16:23 UT.
Region 12908 [S21E02] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12909 [S21E15] decayed slowly and quietly. The region was the source of a C4.4 flare at 03:21 UT on December 20. The associated EIT wave expanded mostly northwards. It's not yet certain if there was a CME related to this event..
Region 12910 [N13W51] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 12911 [N20E28] was quiet and stable.
New region 12912 [S12E67]  rotated into view on December 18 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7239 [S17E00] decayed slowly and quietly. SWPC includes these spots in AR 12908.
S7243 [S27E45] was quiet and stable.
S7244 [S18E50] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7247 [N17E67] was quiet and stable.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location AR Recorded by Comment
C3.7/1F 21:12 S20W09   GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

December 17-19: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1049) rotated across the central meridian on December 17-18.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on December 20-21 due to effects from CH1049 and quiet on December 22-23.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are red colored.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12910 2021.12.11
2021.12.16
2  2 2 N13W53 0020 HSX CRO location: N13W51
12905 2021.12.11
2021.12.12
      S12W53            
12907 2021.12.12
2021.12.13
15 36 21 S21W14 0250 DKI ESI beta-gamma

location: S21W10

S7233 2021.12.12       S19W42            
12906 2021.12.13
2021.12.13
1 5 2 S29W45 0020 HRX CRO location: S29W43
S7236 2021.12.13       N29W43            
12908 2021.12.14
2021.12.15
13 29 15 S21E02 0240 EAI DAO area: 0120
12909 2021.12.14
2021.12.15
4 21 13 S21E16 0120 CAO CAO  
S7239 2021.12.15   15 8 S17E00 0030   BXO SWPC includes this in AR 12908
12911 2021.12.16
2021.12.16
3 5 4 N20E28 0050 HAX CAO area: 0040
S7242 2021.12.17       N15W34            
S7243 2021.12.17   5 3 S28E45 0013   CRO  
S7244 2021.12.18   2 1 S18E50 0005   AXX  
12912 2021.12.18
2021.12.19
1 1 1 S12E64 0040 HSX HSX location: S12E67
S7246 2021.12.18       N15W06          
S7247 2021.12.18   2 1 N17E67 0005   BXO  
S7248 2021.12.18       S10E13          
S7249 2021.12.19       S16W81          
Total spot count: 39 123 71  
Sunspot number: 109 233 181  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 77 157 105  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 120 128 145  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.06 69.5 71.7 5.8 7.9 (+2.3) 3.75
2020.07 69.5 71.8 6.3 9.0 (+1.1) 4.28
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.6 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.3 19.1 (+1.8) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.3 21.8 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.9 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.9 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.3 (26.9 projected, +1.0) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.4 (29.9 projected, +3.0) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.4 (34.6 projected, +4.7) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.5 (40.3 projected, +5.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (44.7 projected, +4.4) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.1 (49.3 projected, +4.6) 9.9
2021.12 90.6 (1)   27.5 (2A) / 44.8 (2B) / 52.1 (2C) (55.1 projected, +5.8) (6.2)
2022.01       (58.7 projected, +3.6)  
2022.02       (63.5 projected, +4.8)  
2022.03       (68.9 projected, +5.4)  
2022.04       (74.0 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (80.4 projected, +6.4)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.