Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 14, 2021 at 11:30 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (November 4, 2021)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (November 4, 2021) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (November 4, 2021) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (November 4, 2021) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (November 4, 2021) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was very quiet on November 13. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 81.0 - increasing 3.6 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 80.83). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 1 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 1.4). Three hour interval K indices: 01010001 (planetary), 010010** (Boulder), 00000022 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class A6 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 6 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 80) and in 4 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 48) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12894 [S27W35] decayed losing spots and area. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 08:43 UT
Region 12895 [N22W18] decayed slowly and quietly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7184 [N09W30] was quiet and stable.
S7186 [N16W76] was spotless at noon, then developed one spot with rudimentary penumbra.
S7189 [S14W51] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7190 [S18E87] rotated into view with a single mature spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location AR Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 11-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1041) will rotate across the central meridian on November 13-14.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on November 14-15. On November 16-17 there is a chance of unsettled to active conditions due to effects from CH1041.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are red colored.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
S7174 2021.11.04       S04W52            
12894 2021.11.04
2021.11.05
3 7 4 S28W33 0100 CSO CSO area: 0140

location: S27W35

S7176 2021.11.06       S15W53            
12895 2021.11.07
2021.11.08
1 6 2 N22W20 0010 AXX BXO

location: N22W18

S7181 2021.11.09       S19W25            
S7182 2021.11.10       N18W31            
S7183 2021.11.10       N24E28            
S7184 2021.11.10   4 1 N09W30        
S7185 2021.11.10       S15W18          
S7186 2021.11.12   1 1 N15W76 0010   HRX  
S7187 2021.11.12       N09W44            
S7188 2021.11.12       S18W36            
S7189 2021.11.12   1   S14W51 0001   AXX  
S7190 2021.11.13   1   S18E87 0050   HSX    
Total spot count: 4 20 8  
Sunspot number: 24 80 48  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 9 33 21  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 26 44 38  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.05 69.0 70.6 0.2 5.6 (+2.0) 3.80
2020.06 69.5 71.7 5.8 7.9 (+2.3) 3.75
2020.07 69.5 71.8 6.3 9.0 (+1.1) 4.28
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.6 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.3 19.1 (+1.8) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.3 21.8 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.9 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 (26.6 projected, +1.7) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.3 (29.8 projected, +3.2) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.4 (34.4 projected, +4.6) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.4 (39.1 projected, +4.7) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.5 (44.8 projected, +5.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (49.1 projected, +4.3) 7.38
2021.11 89.1 (1)   16.4 (2A) / 37.8 (2B) / 52.1 (2C) (53.7 projected, +4.6) (13.3)
2021.12       (59.6 projected, +5.9)  
2022.01       (63.2 projected, +3.6)  
2022.02       (67.9 projected, +4.7)  
2022.03       (73.4 projected, +5.5)  
2022.04       (78.5 projected, +5.1)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.