Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on October 7, 2021 at 06:45 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (October 3, 2021)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (October 1, 2021) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (October 1, 2021) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (October 1, 2021) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (October 1, 2021) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on October 6. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active conditions.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 84.8 - decreasing 14.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 79.76). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.3). Three hour interval K indices: 22222321 (planetary), 12343321 (Boulder), 21023431 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 5 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 69) and in 3 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 35) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12880 [N32W50] decayed further and was quiet.
Region 12882 [N16E40] gained tiny trailing spots and was mostly quiet. The region produced a C5.5 flare at 02:46 UT on October 7.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7120 [N24E35] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7121 [N26W08] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7122 [S31E72] rotated into view with tiny spots.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location AR Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 4-6: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

An extension (CH1035) of the northern polar coronal hole lost some of its southernmost area on October 6 and may be too far to the north to cause a disturbance.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on October 7-10.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are red colored.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12880 2021.09.27
2021.09.28
1 6 1 N32W50 0020 HRX CRO

area: 0010

S7108 2021.09.28       S17W57            
S7109 2021.09.28       N25W26            
S7110 2021.09.28       N25W52            
12882 2021.10.03
2021.10.03
1 8 3 N16E43 0240 CSO CHO area: 0330

location: N17E40

SWPC classification requires at least 2 spots

S7113 2021.10.03       N28W24            
S7114 2021.10.04       S14W09            
S7115 2021.10.04       S18W24            
S7116 2021.10.04       S24W08            
S7117 2021.10.04       N08E13            
S7118 2021.10.04       N21E43          
S7119 2021.10.06       S35E07          
S7120 2021.10.06   2 1 N24E35 0005   BXO    
S7121 2021.10.06   1   N26W08 0001   AXX    
S7122 2021.10.06   2   S31E72 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 2 19 5  
Sunspot number: 22 69 35  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 10 32 18  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 24 38 28  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (cycle peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.04 69.5 70.0 5.4 3.6 (+0.6) 5.32
2020.05 69.0 70.6 0.2 5.6 (+2.0) 3.80
2020.06 69.5 71.7 5.8 7.9 (+2.3) 3.75
2020.07 69.5 71.8 6.3 9.0 (+1.1) 4.28
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.6 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.3 19.1 (+1.8) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.3 21.8 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 (26.0 projected, +4.2) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 (28.7 projected, +2.7) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.3 (31.9 projected, +3.2) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.4 (36.5 projected, +4.6) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.4 (41.1 projected, +4.6) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.5 (46.8 projected, +5.7) 6.6
2021.10 85.6 (1)   5.5 (2A) / 28.2 (2B) / 53.1 (2C) (51.2 projected, +4.4) (6.9)
2021.11       (55.8 projected, +4.6)  
2021.12       (61.7 projected, +5.9)  
2022.01       (65.3 projected, +3.6)  
2022.02       (70.0 projected, +4.7)  
2022.03       (75.4 projected, +5.4)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.