The geomagnetic field was quiet on August 13, weakly under the influence of a high speed stream from CH1093. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 452 and 558 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 124.2 - decreasing 37.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 108.11). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.9). Three hour interval K indices: 12222222 (planetary), 13332322 (Boulder), 33324345 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 242) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 139) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13071 [S17W75] was quiet and stable.
Region 13074 [S17W37] was quiet and decayed slightly.
Region 13075 [N23W12] developed slightly as new tiny trailing spots
emerged.
Region 13076 [N15W09] was quiet and in slow decay.
Region 13077 [S17W58] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13078 [S23E21] was quiet and mostly
stable. The region has reversed
polarities. C1 flare: C1.2 @ 22:55 UT
Region 13079 [S11W23] developed before noon and produced many C
flares. Slow decay was observed late in the day. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 00:43,
C1.1 @ 01:28, C1.5 @ 01:37, C1.2 @ 02:16, C1.2 @ 04:26, C1.3 @ 05:45, C1.4 @
10:18, C1.4 @ 13:38, C1.2 @ 15:02, C1.0 @ 20:25 UT
Region 13080 [N19W51] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13081 [N11E45] emerged on August 11 and was numbered by
SWPC 2 days later. The region continued to develop but was mostly quiet. C
flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 01:54 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7766 [S10E37] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7767 [N17W11] decayed and was quiet. The region has reversed polarities.
S7771 [S27E15] reemerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7775 [N36E17] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 03:01 | 13079 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.2 | 05:12 | 13079 | GOES16 | LDE | |
| C2.0 | 05:32 | 13081 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.8 | 07:31 | 13079 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.8 | 08:37 | 13079 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.7 | 13:00 | 13079 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 20:25 | S12W22 | 13079 | GOES16 | |
| C4.4 | 23:07 | 13081 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to AR 13079 by SWPC |
August 11-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A boomerang shaped recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1094) will rotate across the central meridian on August 14-17.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on August 14 due to lingering effects from CH1093. Quiet is likely on August 15-16. Quiet to minor storm conditions can be expected for August 17-20 due to effects from CH1094.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13071 | 2022.08.01 2022.08.03 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S18W76 | 0120 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
|
| 13074 | 2022.08.04 2022.08.05 |
1 | 4 | 1 | S18W37 | 0100 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0140 |
| 13075 | 2022.08.05 2022.08.07 |
9 | 2 | N18W30 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N23W12 | ||
| 13076 | 2022.08.06 2022.08.07 |
10 | 8 | 5 | N15W10 | 0170 | DAO | CAO |
 |
 |
SWPC includes AR S7767 in this group |
| S7755 | 2022.08.07 | N30W33 | |||||||||
| 13077 | 2022.08.07 2022.08.09 |
2 | 1 | S18W60 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
location: S17W58 area: 0002 |
|
| S7758 | 2022.08.08 | S29W49 | |||||||||
| 13078 | 2022.08.09 2022.08.10 |
2 | 10 | 3 | S25E20 | 0020 | HAX | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0050 location: S23E21 reversed polarities |
| S7763 | 2022.08.09 | N30W41 | |||||||||
| S7765 | 2022.08.10 | S27W49 | |||||||||
| S7766 | 2022.08.10 | 3 | S10E37 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S7767 | 2022.08.11 | 17 | 10 | N17W11 | 0040 | DRI |
 |
 |
reversed polarities | ||
| 13081 | 2022.08.11 2022.08.13 |
9 | 32 | 14 | N10E44 | 0240 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
location: N11E45 |
| 13080 | 2022.08.11 2022.08.12 |
2 | 3 | 2 | N20W52 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
location: N19W51 |
| 13079 | 2022.08.11 2022.08.12 |
9 | 22 | 11 | S11W25 | 0120 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0160 location: S11W24 |
| S7771 | 2022.08.11 | 1 | S27E15 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7772 | 2022.08.12 | S18W52 |
 |
||||||||
| S7773 | 2022.08.12 | N23E01 |
 |
||||||||
| S7774 | 2022.08.13 | S12W11 |
 |
||||||||
| S7775 | 2022.08.13 | 1 | N36E17 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 36 | 112 | 49 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 116 | 242 | 139 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 66 | 148 | 85 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 128 | 133 | 111 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | (65.8 projected, +5.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | (70.8 projected, +5.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (82.4 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.5 | (88.3 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (95.5 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 110.4 (1) | 26.5 (2A) / 63.3 (2B) / 94.2 (2C) | (102.0 projected, +6.5) | (11.2) | |
| 2022.09 | (106.9 projected, +4.9) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (110.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (112.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (117.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (123.7 projected, +6.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
