Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on August 23, 2022 at 06:30 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (August 7, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (August 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (August 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (August 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (August 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on August 22 under the decreasing influence of CME effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 501 and 680 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 102.6 - increasing 3.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 109.10). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.6). Three hour interval K indices: 33121111 (planetary), 33121221 (Boulder), 54221223 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 160) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 98) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13081 [N10W80] decayed rapidly losing all mature penumbra as the main penumbra fragmented into several small penumbrae.
Region 13082 [N28W23] decayed slowly and lost the leader spots.
Region 13084 [S10W35] decayed slowly and quietly. C1 flare: C1.2 @ 17:36 UT.
Region 13085 [N30E02] developed further and matured towards the end of the day. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 05:04, C1.5 @ 06:36, C1.7 @ 07:00, C1.1 @ 07:31, C1.2 @ 09:29, C1.4 @ 12:03, C1.2 @ 18:20, C1.6 @ 18:48 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7799 [S12W29] decayed slowly and quietly.
S7802 [S22E57] developed slowly and quietly.
S7803 [N21E55] was quiet and stable.
New region S7805 [S15W73] emerged with a small spot.
New region S7806 [N08E38] emerged as a bipolar group before noon, then decayed leaving only a tiny spot at the end of the day.
New region S7807 [S15E79] rotated into view with a single mature spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C5.0 14:09   13085 GOES16  
C3.4 19:38   13085 GOES16  
C2.9 20:55 N30E05 13085 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

August 20-22: No obvious Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1095) was Earth facing on August 19.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet conditions are likely on August 23-25.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13081 2022.08.11
2022.08.13
2 8 3 N13W79 0120 HAX HRX location: N10W80

area: 0030

13084 2022.08.14   2   S07W33 0003   BXO location: S10W35
13082 2022.08.15
2022.08.16
1 2 1 N29W24 0010 AXX HRX location: N28W23

area: 0007

S7785 2022.08.15       N16W53            
S7786 2022.08.16       S20W04          
S7788 2022.08.16       S16W05            
S7790 2022.08.17       N13W33            
S7792 2022.08.18       N30E01            
S7794 2022.08.19       S18W34          
S7795 2022.08.19       N18W48            
S7796 2022.08.19       N14W23            
S7797 2022.08.20       S21W59            
13085 2022.08.20
2022.08.21
11 30 15 N30E01 0150 DSO DSI area: 0300

location: N30E02

S7799 2022.08.20   2   S12W29 0002   BXO  
S7800 2022.08.20       N05W23            
S7801 2022.08.20       S23W46            
S7802 2022.08.21   8 4 S22E57 0020   BXO  
S7803 2022.08.21   4 3 N21E55 0010   BXO  
S7804 2022.08.21       N28E36          
S7805 2022.08.22   2 1 S15W73 0010   HRX    
S7806 2022.08.22   1   N08E38 0001   AXX  
S7807 2022.08.22   1 1 S15E79 0090   HSX    
Total spot count: 14 60 28  
Sunspot number: 44 160 98  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 29 79 47  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 48 88 78  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 (65.8 projected, +5.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 (70.8 projected, +5.0) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.9 projected, +5.1) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.4 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.5 (88.3 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (95.5 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 112.1 (1)   49.4 (2A) / 69.6 (2B) / 89.1 (2C) (102.0 projected, +6.5) (12.4)
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +4.9)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (123.7 projected, +6.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.