The geomagnetic field was quiet on August 25. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 346 and 469 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 117.8 - increasing 24.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 109.34). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.4). Three hour interval K indices: 10111002 (planetary), 10111112 (Boulder), 20022002 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 11 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 216) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 152) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13085 [N30W37] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13086 [S23E14] matured and was quiet.
Region 13087 [S14E39] was quiet and stable.
New region 13088 [S28W46] emerged on August 24 and continued to
develop rapidly on August 25 when the group was numbered by SWPC. The region
is currently not very complex magnetically, however, the rapid development
spurred one M and multiple C flares. A major flare is possible. C1 flares:
C1.8 @ 09:36, C1.4 @ 11:52, C1.7 @ 13:56, C1.5 @ 14:26, C1.9 @ 17:21 UT
New region 13089 [S22E58] emerged on August 24 and developed quickly
on August 25 as the region was assigned its NOAA number. The region had a
magnetic delta at its center during most of the day, however, this
disappeared. Significant polarity intermixing is still present and further M
class flares are possible. Early on August 26 the magnetic delta is back. C1
flares: C1.0 @ 02:33, C1.3 @ 04:04, C1.4 @ 07:04, C1.2 @ 09:28, C1.4 @
12:09, C1.7 @ 15:16, C1.5 @ 17:41, C1.4 @ 21:15 UT
New region 13090 [N16E62] rotated into view on August 23 and was
numbered 2 days later by SWPC as the region began to decay. The easternmost
spot could be a separate region.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7803 [N20E15] was quiet and stable.
New region S7811 [N13E13] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7812 [N35W37] emerged with a tiny spot to the north of AR
13085.
New region S7813 [N03E01] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7814 [N34E20] emerged with tiny
spots.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 06:08 | S22E70 | 13089 | GOES16 | |
| C3.6 | 10:01 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 11:19 | S23E68 | 13089 | GOES16 | |
| C2.4 | 15:48 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 16:01 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.2 | 16:40 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.3/1N | 17:58 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.2 | 18:58 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.0 | 19:09 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.8/1N | 19:51 | 13088 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13089 | |
| C2.2 | 22:03 | S28W42 | 13088 | GOES16 | |
| C2.0 | 22:34 | 13089 | GOES16 | ||
| C9.1 | 23:19 | 13088 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.0 | 23:27 | 13089 | GOES16 |
August 23-24: No obvious Earth directed CMEs were observed.
August 25: A partial halo CME was observed after 05 UT in LASCO C3
imagery. The distribution of material indicates a northern hemisphere
source, however, with the lack of obvious CMEs on the frontside, the source
was likely backsided.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1096) will be rotating across the central meridian on August 25-27.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet conditions are likely on August 26-27 becoming quiet to active on August 28-29 due to effects from CH1096.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13084 | 2022.08.14 | S07W78 | location: S10W74 | ||||||||
| 13082 | 2022.08.15 2022.08.16 |
N29W65 | location: N27W67 | ||||||||
| S7786 | 2022.08.16 | S17W41 | |||||||||
| S7788 | 2022.08.16 | S16W44 | |||||||||
| S7792 | 2022.08.18 | N30W38 | |||||||||
| 13085 | 2022.08.20 2022.08.21 |
10 | 15 | 6 | N32W35 | 0280 | DKO | ESO |
 |
 |
location: N30W37 |
| 13086 | 2022.08.21 2022.08.23 |
3 | 17 | 10 | S24E14 | 0120 | DSO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S23E14 area: 0080 |
| S7803 | 2022.08.21 | 3 | 1 | N20E15 | 0005 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7804 | 2022.08.21 | N28W03 | |||||||||
| S7806 | 2022.08.22 | N08W01 | |||||||||
| 13087 | 2022.08.22 2022.08.23 |
1 | 4 | 1 | S16E38 | 0040 | HAX | HAX |
 |
 |
location: S14E39 |
| 13090 | 2022.08.23 2022.08.25 |
1 | 4 | 2 | N14E60 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| 13088 | 2022.08.24 2022.08.25 |
10 | 28 | 14 | S26W45 | 0240 | DAI | DKC |
 |
 |
location: S28W46 area: 0500 |
| 13089 | 2022.08.24 | 9 | 24 | 14 | S24E56 | 0150 | DSI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S22E58 |
| S7811 | 2022.08.25 | 6 | 2 | N13E13 | 0012 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S7812 | 2022.08.25 | 1 | 1 | N35W37 | 0004 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S7813 | 2022.08.25 | 2 | N03E01 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S7814 | 2022.08.25 | 2 | 1 | N34E20 | 0007 | CRO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 34 | 106 | 52 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 94 | 216 | 152 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 64 | 142 | 88 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 103 | 119 | 122 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | (65.8 projected, +5.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | (70.8 projected, +5.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (82.4 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.5 | (88.3 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (95.5 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 111.7 (1) | 55.6 (2A) / 69.0 (2B) / 88.6 (2C) | (102.0 projected, +6.5) | (11.2) | |
| 2022.09 | (106.9 projected, +4.9) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (110.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (112.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (117.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (123.7 projected, +6.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
