Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on December 6, 2022 at 04:50 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (December 4, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (December 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (December 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (December 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (December 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on December 5. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 408 and 578 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 149.8 - increasing 17.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 121.32). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.8). Three hour interval K indices: 02222210 (planetary), 12323211 (Boulder), 12313320 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 257) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 156) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13153 [S16E18] was the source of a few low level C flares. More intermediate spots emerged. A major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 06:42, C1.4 @ 10:47, C1.4 @ 15:16, C1.4 @ 15:59 UT
Region 13154 [S38W58] was quiet and stable.
Region 13155 [N23W36] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13156 [N25E27] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 01:51 UT
Region 13157 [N17E43] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13158 [N25W06] produced a few C flares and is still struggling to develop mature penumbra on any spot. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 10:18, C1.6 @ 20:57 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8057 [N23E37] was quiet and stable.
S8059 [N32W17] was quiet and stable.
New region S8062 [N29E79] rotated into view with a single small spot.
New region S8063 [N16E25] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.
New region S8064 [N12W48] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8065 [emerged with a tiny spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.7 05:30 N23E04 13158 GOES16  
C2.0 17:01 N24W02 13158 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

December 3-5: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1118) rotated across the central meridian on December 4-5.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet conditions are likely on December 6. On December 7-8 quiet to minor storm is expected due to effects from CH1118.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
S8043 2022.11.27       N25W58            
S8044 2022.11.27       N18W39            
13154 2022.11.29
2022.12.01
  1   S38W59 0001   AXX

location: S38W58

13158 2022.11.30
2022.12.04
10 26 14 N24W07 0110 DAI DRI

location: N25W06

13153 2022.11.30
2022.12.01
13 53 27 S16E19 0690 FKC FKI

location: S16E18

area: 1040

S8051 2022.11.30       N13W51            
13155 2022.12.01
2022.12.01
9 20 10 N22W38 0110 DAO DAO

location: N23W36

13156 2022.12.01
2022.12.02
2 7 3 N24E29 0080 HSX CSO  
S8054 2022.12.01       N28E04            
S8056 2022.12.02       N28E21          
S8057 2022.12.02   3 1 N23E37 0006   BXO  
S8058 2022.12.02       S13W51            
S8059 2022.12.03   2   N32W17 0003   AXX  
13157 2022.12.03
2022.12.03
5 16 6 N17E09 0170 DAO EHI area: 0310

location: N17E43

S8062 2022.12.05   1 1 N29E79 0040   HRX    
S8063 2022.12.05   5 3 N16E25 0010   AXX    
S8064 2022.12.05   2 1 N17W48 0005   BXO    
S8065 2022.12.05   1   S18E48 0001   AXX  

 

Total spot count: 39 137 66  
Sunspot number: 89 257 156  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 69 173 102  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 98 141 125  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 77.3 (+4.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (80.7 projected, +3.6) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (85.7 projected, +5.0) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (91.4 projected, +5.7) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (96.3 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (99.5 projected, +3.2) 11.16
2022.11 123.4 120.7 77.6 (102.3 projected, +2.8) 9.6
2022.12 134.0 (1)   11.8 (2A) / 73.0 (2B) / 86.5 (2C) (107.1 projected, +4.8) (13.8)
2023.01       (113.1 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (118.1 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (121.2 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (126.6 projected, +5.4)  
2023.05       (132.4 projected, +5.8)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.