Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on December 16, 2022 at 08:05 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (December 4, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (December 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (December 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (December 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (December 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on December 15. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 333 and 381 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 165.9 - increasing 49.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 123.15). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.8). Three hour interval K indices: 22211111 (planetary), 12212121 (Boulder), 22110344 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C3 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 279) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 176) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13160 [N22W41] was quiet and stable.
Region 13162 [S13W23] gained a few spots and was quiet.
Region 13163 [S19W00] produced several C flares and remains capable of M class flaring.
Region 13165 [S20W62] lost some spots as the largest penumbrae grew in size. The region is very unstable and further major flares are likely.
Region 13166 [S07W11] gained spots and area as new flux continued to emerge. The region has a fairly simple magnetic layout, however, C and minor M class flares are possible.
Region 13167 [N19W26] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13168 [S15E56] lost a few tiny spots and was quiet.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8096 [N15E05] was quiet and stable.
New region S8097 [N25E34] emerged with tiny spots.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C6.3 00:53   13165 GOES16  
M1.6 01:37   13165 GOES16  
C8.9 02:08   13165 GOES16  
C3.9 02:51   13165 GOES16 weak type II radio sweep
C4.2 03:07 S22E10 13163 GOES16  
C2.7 04:15   13165 GOES16  
C4.5 04:43   13165 GOES16 weak type II radio sweep
C7.7 05:25   13165 GOES16  
C3.7 06:10   13165 GOES16  
M2.3 07:07   13165 GOES16  
M1.0 07:58   13165 GOES16  
C9.2 08:10   13165 GOES16  
M1.5 10:16   13165 GOES16  
M1.6 10:30   13165 GOES16  
C6.0 12:06   13165 GOES16  
C5.5 12:48   13165 GOES16  
C8.3 13:17   13165 GOES16  
C9.1 14:15   13165 GOES16  
C9.5 14:23   13165 GOES16  
C6.5 14:55   13165 GOES16  
C6.2 15:44   13163 GOES16  
C8.0/1N 15:50 S21E05 13163 GOES16  
M1.0 16:10 behind NE limb   GOES16  
M1.1 16:44   13165 GOES16  
M2.0 16:56   13165 GOES16  
M1.2 17:27   13163 GOES16  
C5.8 20:07   13163 GOES16  
C6.4 21:07   13163 GOES16  
C5.3 22:03   13165 GOES16  
C6.7 22:18   13165 GOES16  
M5.7 22:40   13165 GOES16  
C4.3 23:49   13165 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

December 13-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1119) will rotate across the central meridian on December 14-17. CH1119 could be too far to the south to cause a disturbance. A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1120) could become Earth facing on December 17-18.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected for December 16-18, however, a high speed stream from CH1119 could cause a few unsettled and active intervals on December 17-18.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13159 2022.12.05
2022.12.06
      N29W59           location: N29W51
13160 2022.12.06
2022.12.06
1 2 1 N23W42 0070 HSX HSX

location: N22W41

area: 0100

13162 2022.12.07
2022.12.09
2 11 5 S12W23 0080 CSO CSO area: 0130
13163 2022.12.09
2022.12.10
23 63 35 S19E02 0400 EKC EHC beta-gamma-delta

location: S19W00

area: 0600

S8075 2022.12.09       S24W40            
S8077 2022.12.09       S13W50            
13165 2022.12.10
2022.12.11
16 36 14 S19W63 0340 EKC EKC beta-gamma-delta

area: 0620

location: S20W62

13166 2022.12.10
2022.12.11
15 41 25 S08W11 0080 DAO DAI

area: 0210

location: S07W11

S8080 2022.12.10       S03W44            
S8081 2022.12.11       N17W35            
S8082 2022.12.11       S24W49            
13167 2022.12.12
2022.12.13
10 22 11 N21W26 0120 DSO DAO area: 0180

location: N19W26

S8084 2022.12.12       N20W19            
S8085 2022.12.12       S19W58            
S8087 2022.12.12       N29W31            
S8088 2022.12.12       S32W32          
S8091 2022.12.13       N26E12            
13168 2022.12.13
2022.12.14
3 10 4 S15E53 0070 HSX CSO area: 0110

location: S15E56

S8093 2022.12.13       S45W02            
S8094 2022.12.13       S09W02            
S8095 2022.12.13       S43W21            
S8096 2022.12.14   1   N15E05 0001   AXX  
S8097 2022.12.15   3 1 N25E34 0007   BXO    
Total spot count: 70 189 96  
Sunspot number: 140 279 176  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 115 234 141  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 154 153 141  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 77.3 (+4.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (80.7 projected, +3.6) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (85.7 projected, +5.0) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (91.4 projected, +5.7) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (96.3 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (99.5 projected, +3.2) 11.16
2022.11 123.4 120.7 77.6 (102.3 projected, +2.8) 9.33
2022.12 145.2 (1)   54.6 (2A) / 112.9 (2B) / 110.5 (2C) (107.1 projected, +4.8) (9.4)
2023.01       (113.1 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (118.1 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (121.2 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (126.6 projected, +5.4)  
2023.05       (132.4 projected, +5.8)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.