The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on December 29 as a disturbance related to CH1122 started after 04h UT according to DSCOVR data (no CIR was observed due the weak western part of CH1122). Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 433 and 509 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to severe storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 160. The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.5). Three hour interval K indices: 00223334 (planetary), 01224333 (Boulder), 00113457 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 263) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 163) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13169 [N23W79] rotated partly out of
view and decayed.
Region 13171 [N23W63] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13172 [S36W34] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13173 [N23W14] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13175 [S21E06] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13176 [N19E24] developed further and may
be capable of M class flaring.
Region 13177 [S18E57] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13178 [S04W68] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13179 [N13W10] was first observed with spots on December 28
and developed quickly on December 29 when it was numbered by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8130 [N31W63] reemerged with a few spots.
New region S8133 [N19E82] rotated partly into view. The two leader
spots are latitudinally at some distance from each and may be 2 separate
regions.
New region S8134 [S38E01] emerged with a tiny spot.
December 27-29: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1122) rotated across the central meridian on December 25-27. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1123) will likely become Earth facing on January 1-2.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to minor storm conditions are expected for December 30-31 due to effects from CH1122. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on January 1-3. Quiet to minor storm conditions are expected on January 4-5 due to effects from CH1123.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13169 | 2022.12.16 2022.12.17 |
1 | 6 | 4 | N23W84 | 0040 | HAX | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N23W79 |
| 13171 | 2022.12.18 2022.12.19 |
2 | 8 | 3 | N23W65 | 0040 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N23W63 |
| 13172 | 2022.12.20 2022.12.21 |
4 | 11 | 6 | S36W34 | 0010 | BXO | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| 13173 | 2022.12.22 2022.12.22 |
3 | 9 | 5 | N25W16 | 0030 | HSX | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N23W14 |
| 13175 | 2022.12.24 2022.12.25 |
12 | S20E03 | 0020 | CRO |
 |
 |
location: S21E06 | |||
| S8120 | 2022.12.24 | N20W35 | |||||||||
| S8121 | 2022.12.24 | S07W34 | |||||||||
| S8123 | 2022.12.25 | S17W34 | |||||||||
| 13176 | 2022.12.25 2022.12.26 |
14 | 47 | 21 | N19E24 | 0380 | EKI | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0630 |
| 13178 | 2022.12.27 2022.12.29 |
2 | 6 | 2 | S03W70 | 0060 | CSO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: S04W68 |
| 13177 | 2022.12.27 2022.12.28 |
3 | 14 | 7 | S18E58 | 0120 | DSO | DSI |
 |
 |
area: 0320 |
| S8128 | 2022.12.27 | N05E05 | |||||||||
| S8129 | 2022.12.27 | N18W44 | |||||||||
| S8130 | 2022.12.27 | 2 | 1 | N31W63 | 0015 | CRO |
 |
||||
| 13179 | 2022.12.28 2022.12.29 |
4 | 23 | 12 | N13W11 | 0030 | CAO | DRI |
 |
 |
location: N13W10 area: 0100 |
| S8133 | 2022.12.29 | 4 | 2 | N19E82 | 0300 | DAO |
 |
two groups? | |||
| S8134 | 2022.12.29 | 1 | S38E01 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 33 | 143 | 63 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 113 | 263 | 163 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 78 | 190 | 110 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 124 | 145 | 130 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.8 (+4.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.9 (+4.1) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.1 (+4.2) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.3 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | (80.7 projected, +3.6) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (85.7 projected, +5.0) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 75.4 | (91.4 projected, +5.7) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.3 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 146.8 (1) | 103.3 (2A) / 110.7 (2B) / 131.5 (2C) | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | (10.4) | |
| 2023.01 | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | ||||
| 2023.02 | (118.1 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (121.2 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (126.6 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (132.4 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
