Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on February 9, 2022 at 08:35 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (February 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (February 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (February 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (February 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (February 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on February 8. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 123.1 - increasing 19.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 85.19). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.3). Three hour interval K indices: 20111121 (planetary), 10112221 (Boulder), 40002353 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B4 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 189) and in 5 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 88) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12939 [S16W45] decayed slowly losing several small spots. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 16:39 UT.
Region 12940 [N17W45] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12941 [N24E12] developed further and a weak magnetic delta formed in the central spot section. An M class flare is possible.
Region 12942 [S12W85] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 12943 [S19E48] rotated into view on February 6 and was numbered 2 days later by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7328 [S24W46] was quiet and stable.
S7339 [N11W21] was quiet and stable.
New region S7344 [S20E08] emerged before noon with tiny spots.
New region S7345 [S22E70] rotated into view.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C5.1 21:45 S16W42 12939 GOES16 weak type II radio sweep

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 7-8: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
February 6: A faint full halo CME was observed after a C3.1 long duration event near noon in AR 12939. The region became unstable as new flux emerged to the south of the leader spot.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A very well defined recurrent southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1060) will likely rotate across the central meridian on February 9-10.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to minor storm on February 9-10 due to CME effects, quiet to unsettled on February 11 and quiet to minor storm on February 12-13 due to effects from CH1060.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12939 2022.01.29
2022.01.30
4 5 4 S17W44 0160 CSO CSO

location: S16W45

area: 0250

12940 2022.01.30
2022.01.30
9 27 7 N17W45 0140 DAO DAO  
S7327 2022.01.30       N18W57            
S7328 2022.01.30   3 2 S24W46 0007   AXX  
12941 2022.02.02
2022.02.03
20 49 21 N23E10 0260 EKI FAI

beta-gamma-delta

location: N24E12

area: 0320

S7336 2022.02.02       S22W44           reversed polarities
S7338 2022.02.04       S22W26            
S7339 2022.02.04   4   N11W21 0005   BXO  
12942 2022.02.05
2022.02.06
1 1   S11W88 0010 AXX AXX area: 0002

location: S12W85

S7342 2022.02.05       N00W32           probably SC24
12943 2022.02.06
2022.02.08
2 7 4 S19E48 0020 BXO DRO  
S7344 2022.02.08   2   S20E08 0003   AXX    
S7345 2022.02.08   1   S22E70 0001   AXX    
Total spot count: 36 99 38  
Sunspot number: 86 189 88  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 56 117 56  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 95 104 70  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.07 69.5 71.8 6.1 9.0 (+1.1) 4.28
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.5 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.7 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 (36.2 projected, +4.8) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 (42.3 projected, +6.1) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (46.7 projected, +4.4) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.0 (51.3 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (57.2 projected, +5.9) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (60.8 projected, +3.6) 8.9
2022.02 126.6 (1)   23.9 (2A) / 83.6 (2B) / 82.0 (2C) (65.5 projected, +4.7) (14.0)
2022.03       (71.0 projected, +5.5)  
2022.04       (76.1 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (82.6 projected, +6.5)  
2022.06       (88.4 projected, +5.9)  
2022.07       (95.7 projected, +7.3)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.