Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on January 8, 2022 at 13:25 UT

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (January 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (January 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (January 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (January 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (January 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was inactive on January 7. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded inactive levels. Solar wind density has increased during the first half of January 8, likely due to low speed stream from CH1053

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 107.3 - increasing 30.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 82.02). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 0 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 0.3). Three hour interval K indices: 00000000 (planetary), 00101220 (Boulder), 00000000 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux was at the class B4 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 6 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 133) and in 4 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 78) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12924 [S30E11] developed further but remained mostly quiet. M class flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 08:13 UT.
Region 12925 [S33E44] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7281 [S18E31] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7283 [S18E59] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7284 [N21E18] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7285 [S03E39] emerged with tiny spots. This is probably an SC24 group.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location AR Recorded by Comment
C2.7 22:10   12924 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

January 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1053) rotated across the central meridian on January 4-5.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair to good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on January 8-9 due to effects from CH1053 and quiet on January 10-11.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12922 2021.12.30
2021.12.31
      S17W72           location: S17W66
S7274 2022.01.01       S01W35           probably SC24
12924 2022.01.03
2022.01.04
14 55 29 S31E06 0430 EHI EKI location: S30E11

area: 0500

S7279 2022.01.04       N21E20            
12925 2022.01.04
2022.01.05
4 8 6 S34E41 0100 CSO HSX location: S33E44

area: 0130

S7281 2022.01.06   4 2 S18E31 0010   BXO  
S7282 2022.01.06       S17W13          
S7283 2022.01.07   2 1 S18E59 0008   BXO    
S7284 2022.01.07   2   N21E18 0004   BXO    
S7285 2022.01.07   2   S03E39 0004   BXO    
Total spot count: 18 73 38  
Sunspot number: 38 133 78  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 33 88 53  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 42 73 62  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.06 69.5 71.7 5.8 7.9 (+2.3) 3.75
2020.07 69.5 71.8 6.3 9.0 (+1.1) 4.28
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.6 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.3 19.1 (+1.8) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.3 21.8 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.9 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.9 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.3 27.8 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.4 (31.8 projected, +4.0) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.4 (36.5 projected, +4.7) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.5 (42.2 projected, +5.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (46.6 projected, +4.4) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.1 (51.2 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (57.0 projected, +5.8) 6.5
2022.01 91.0 (1)   6.4 (2A) / 28.3 (2B) / 80.5 (2C) (60.6 projected, +3.6) (5.9)
2022.02       (65.4 projected, +4.8)  
2022.03       (70.8 projected, +5.4)  
2022.04       (75.9 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (82.3 projected, +6.4)  
2022.06       (88.2 projected, +5.9)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.