The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on January 29 under the influence of effects from CH1057. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 125.3 - increasing 36.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 83.76). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 15 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.9). Three hour interval K indices: 44334111 (planetary), 33435110 (Boulder), 55334003 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 205) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 157) SDO/HMI images.
Region 12934 [S24W48] was quiet and stable.
Region 12935 [N27W57] was quiet and stable.
Region 12936 [N17E05] continued to develop quickly gaining area and
many spots. Major flares, even X flares are possible. The region has a few
weak magnetic delta structures, primarily near the center of the region, and
one at the southern edge of the nearly symmetrical leading penumbra. C1 flares:
C1.4 @ 01:19, C1.1 @ 05:36, C1.0 @ 07:11, C1.3 @ 10:33, C1.1 @ 15:24, C1.3 @
15:35, C1.6 @ 21:37 UT.
Region 12937 [S20W36] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12938 [N18E28] decayed in the trailing spot section while new
flux emerged in the leading spot section.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
New region S7321 [N35W11] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7322 [S32W03] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7323 [S24E39] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S7324 [S14E86] rotated partly into view. Based on activity
in SDO/AIA imagery the region could be capable of M class flaring. C1
flares: C1.2 @ 13:43, C1.5 @ 16:37 (wrongly attributed to AR 12936 by NOAA),
C1.2 @ 18:24 (wrongly attributed to AR 12936 by NOAA) UT.
AR S7325 (N18E86 @ 06:00 UT) began rotating into view at the northeast limb early on January 30. The region is fairly active and could produce M class flares.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.0 | 00:50 | N16E24 | 12936 | GOES16 | |
| C2.3 | 04:17 | N16E24 | 12936 | GOES16 | |
| C6.9 | 12:14 | N17E13 | 12936 | GOES16 | |
| C2.0 | 14:17 | S14E90 | S7324 | GOES16 | wrongly attributed to AR 12936 by NOAA |
| C7.3 | 16:55 | S14E90 | S7324 | GOES16 | |
| C2.1 | 17:34 | 12936 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.3 | 19:38 | S14E90 | S7324 | GOES16 | |
| M1.1 | 23:32 | N18E08 | 12936 | GOES17 | LDE, halo CME |
January 27-28: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 29: The long duration M1.1 event in AR 12936 late in the day
was associated with an asymmetrical halo CME. The fastest parts of the CME
was observed off the northeast limb. The CME could reach Earth on February 1
or 2.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
No obvious coronal holes are currently or near Earth facing positions.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on January 30-31 and early on February 1. Sometime during the latter half of February 1 or early on February the CME observed late on January 29 is expected to reach Earth causing unsettled to minor storm conditions.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 12934 | 2022.01.19 2022.01.20 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S26W49 | 0060 | HSX | HSX |
 |
 |
area: 0120 location: S24W48 |
| 12937 | 2022.01.20 2022.01.25 |
3 | 3 | 2 | S20W39 | 0020 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S20W36 area: 0007 |
| S7310 | 2022.01.21 | N23W55 | |||||||||
| 12936 | 2022.01.23 2022.01.25 |
26 | 83 | 45 | N17E05 | 0640 | DKC | EKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0860 |
| 12935 | 2022.01.24 2022.01.24 |
4 | 10 | 7 | N27W58 | 0040 | CRO | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| 12938 | 2022.01.25 2022.01.26 |
13 | 8 | N19E34 | 0030 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N18E28 | ||
| S7319 | 2022.01.26 | N16W41 | |||||||||
| S7320 | 2022.01.28 | N24E04 |
 |
||||||||
| S7321 | 2022.01.29 | 1 | 1 | N35W11 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S7322 | 2022.01.29 | 1 | 1 | S32W03 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S7323 | 2022.01.29 | 2 | 1 | S24E39 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S7324 | 2022.01.29 | 1 | 1 | S14E86 | 0180 | HSX |
 |
||||
| S7325 | 2022.01.30 | N18E86 @ 06:00 |
0070 |
 |
|
||||||
| Total spot count: | 34 | 115 | 67 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 74 | 205 | 157 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 52 | 135 | 87 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 81 | 113 | 126 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.06 | 69.5 | 71.7 | 5.8 | 7.9 (+2.3) | 3.75 |
| 2020.07 | 69.5 | 71.8 | 6.3 | 9.0 (+1.1) | 4.28 |
| 2020.08 | 71.6 | 73.4 | 7.6 | 9.5 (+0.5) | 5.68 |
| 2020.09 | 70.7 | 71.4 | 0.7 | 10.5 (+1.0) | 8.59 |
| 2020.10 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 14.6 | 11.9 (+1.4) | 6.13 |
| 2020.11 | 89.9 | 88.0 | 34.5 | 13.6 (+1.7) | 4.77 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.3 | 19.1 (+1.8) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.3 | 21.8 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.9 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.9 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.3 | 27.8 (+1.9) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.4 | (31.8 projected, +4.0) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.4 | (36.5 projected, +4.7) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.5 | (42.2 projected, +5.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 38.1 | (46.6 projected, +4.4) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 35.1 | (51.2 projected, +4.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.6 | (57.0 projected, +5.8) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 102.1 (1) | 51.4 (2A) / 54.9 (2B) / 62.5 (2C) | (60.6 projected, +3.6) | (8.9) | |
| 2022.02 | (65.4 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2022.03 | (70.8 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2022.04 | (75.9 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2022.05 | (82.3 projected, +6.4) | ||||
| 2022.06 | (88.2 projected, +5.9) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
