Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on July 2, 2022 at 10:55 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (June 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (July 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (July 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (July 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (July 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 1. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 344 and 417 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind density increased gradually 09-23 UT while the total field of the interplanetary magnetic field displayed always the same development, except that the main increase of the IMF was after 17h UT. The source of this disturbance is uncertain and it caused unsettled to minor storm conditions from late on July 1.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 98.0 - decreasing 2.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 102.87). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.0). Three hour interval K indices: 10011133 (planetary), 33332223 (Boulder), 10011225 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 153) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 96) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13040 [S13W63] gained some trailing spots and was quiet.
Region 13042 [N09W59] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13043 [S15W18] was quiet and stable.
Region 13045 [S10E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13046 [N17E62] rotated into view on June 30 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7666 [S19E19] developed as new flux emerged with lots of small spots observed.
New region S7668 [S08E49] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7669 [S11E74] rotated into view with a small spot.
New region S7670 [N16E05] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7671 [S31E35]was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

June 30-July 1: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
June 29: A faint and slow CME was observed early in the day in LASCO imagery following a filament eruption in the northern hemisphere late on June 28. The CME may have a weak Earth directed component and could cause unsettled or active intervals on July 2 or 3.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1086) could rotate into an Earth facing position on July 2-3.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

Quiet to active conditions are likely on July 2 becoming quiet to unsettled on July 3-4. A high speed stream associated with CH1086 could reach Earth on July 5 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13040 2022.06.20
2022.06.21
7 10 6 S13W62 0120 DSO DSI  
13042 2022.06.27
2022.06.28
  2   S02W62 0002   AXX

location: N09W59

SWPC location is way off

S7656 2022.06.27       N15W27          
13044 2022.06.27
2022.06.28
      S21W27          
13043 2022.06.27
2022.06.28
  2 1 S14W19 0007   BXO location: S15W18
13045 2022.06.28
2022.06.30
1 8 4 S11E12 0010 AXX CRO location: S10E13

area: 0020

S7662 2022.06.28       S22W46            
S7663 2022.06.28       S19W45          
S7664 2022.06.29       S27W02            
13046 2022.06.30
2022.07.01
1 1 1 N17E64 0080 HSX HSX area: 0130
S7666 2022.06.30   20 9 S19E19 0060   DRI  
S7667 2022.06.30       S29W33          
S7668 2022.07.01   7 4 S08E49 0020   CRO    
S7669 2022.07.01   1 1 S11E74 0008   HRX    
S7670 2022.07.01   1   N16E05 0001   AXX    
S7671 2022.07.01   1   S31E35 0001   AXX  

 

Total spot count: 9 53 26  
Sunspot number: 39 153 96  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 19 75 48  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 43 84 77  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.3 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.0 (+4.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.0 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.6 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.7 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (59.5 projected, +3.8) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (65.1 projected, +5.6) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.5 (70.5 projected, +5.4) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.7 projected, +5.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.2 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.6 (88.1 projected, +5.9) 8.4
2022.07 98.0 (1)   1.3 (2A) / 39 (2B) / 93.5 (2C) (95.3 projected, +7.2) (6)
2022.08       (101.9 projected, +6.6)  
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +5.0)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.11       (141.4 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.