Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on July 8, 2022 at 09:00 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (July 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (July 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (July 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (July 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (July 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on July 7. A weak solar wind shock was observed at DSCOVR at 05:57 UT, however, the main part of the disturbance arrived at DSCOVR after 10:30 UT. The interplanetary magnetic field swung strongly southwards causing minor geomagnetic storming until early on July 8. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 297 and 447 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 121.3 - increasing 10.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 103.23). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 18 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 17.8). Three hour interval K indices: 01235434 (planetary), 23334433 (Boulder), 00136554 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 227) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 126) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13046 [N18W17] gained a trailing polarity spot while the main umbra fragmented into smaller umbrae.
Region 13047 [S18W55] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13049 [S13W02] was quiet and stable.
Region 13051 [N28W11] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13052 [N15E28] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13053 [N14E47] developed further in the trailing spot section. Weak polarity intermixing is present in several parts of the region. The region was mostly quiet, however, a major flare is possible.
Region 13054 [N20W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13055 [S18E61] rotated into view on July 6 with relatively small spots. The region developed significantly on July 7 when it was numbered by SWPC. There is a chance for C flares and possibly a minor M class flare. C1 flare: C1.5 @ 01:29 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
New region S7689 [N21W02] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7690 [S20E36] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

July 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1087) could rotate into an Earth facing position on July 9-10.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

Quiet to minor storm conditions are likely on July 8 due to CME effects, quiet conditions are likely on July 9-10.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13045 2022.06.28
2022.06.30
                  location: S10W63
13046 2022.06.30
2022.07.01
2 9 6 N16W18 0090 HSX DAO

location: N18W17

13047 2022.06.30
2022.07.02
  2   S20W59 0002   AXX

location: S18W55

13048 2022.07.01
2022.07.02
      S13W34            
13049 2022.07.01
2022.07.03
  10 1 S12W07 0015   BXO location: S13W02
S7671 2022.07.01       S32W43            
13051 2022.07.02
2022.07.04
3 16 8 N28W13 0030 CRO DRI area: 0060

location: N28W11

13050 2022.07.02
2022.07.04
      N18W12          
S7674 2022.07.02       S23W50            
13052 2022.07.04
2022.07.05
7 18 9 N15E28 0060 CRO DRI  
S7678 2022.07.04       S15W30            
13053 2022.07.04
2022.07.05
11 38 20 N14E47 0680 EKO EKI beta-gamma
S7680 2022.07.04       S32W17            
S7681 2022.07.05       S30W26            
13054 2022.07.05
2022.07.06
1 1 1 N21W40 0010 HRX HRX  
S7683 2022.07.05       N18W51          
S7684 2022.07.05       N41W46            
S7685 2022.07.05       S13E41            
S7686 2022.07.05       S23W10          
13055 2022.07.06
2022.07.07
4 26 11 S18E60 0130 DAO DAI area: 0280

location: S18E61

S7688 2022.07.07       N17E08          
S7689 2022.07.07   3   N21W02 0003   BXO    
S7690 2022.07.07   4   S20E36 0004   AXX    
Total spot count: 28 127 56  
Sunspot number: 88 227 126  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 57 156 84  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 97 125 101  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.3 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.0 (+4.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.0 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.6 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.7 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (59.5 projected, +3.8) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (65.1 projected, +5.6) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.5 (70.5 projected, +5.4) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.7 projected, +5.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.2 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.6 (88.1 projected, +5.9) 8.4
2022.07 107.2 (1)   16.0 (2A) / 70.1 (2B) / 103.5 (2C) (95.3 projected, +7.2) (10.1)
2022.08       (101.9 projected, +6.6)  
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +5.0)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.11       (141.4 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.