The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on July 11. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 320 and 393 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. A disturbance, possibly related to CH1087 began after noon.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 161.0 - increasing 15.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 104.04). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 10.3). Three hour interval K indices: 10122343 (planetary), 10122333 (Boulder), 10124454 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 277) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 168) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13046 [N17W70] decayed slowly and
was mostly quiet.
Region 13051 [N28W61] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13052 [N15W28] was quiet and stable.
Region 13053 [N14W08] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.5 @ 14:27, C1.4 @ 21:09, C1.5 @ 21:42, C1.3 @ 22:06, C1.3 @ 23:07 UT.
Region 13055 [S17E07] gained area, however, the negative and positive
polarity areas are mostly well separated. There are a few patches with polarity intermixing
and a major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 04:35, C1.7 @ 08:34, C1.4 @
20:34 UT
Region 13056 [S17E51] decayed significantly after the M1.1 flare and
was mostly quiet for the remainder of the day. The trailing polarity spots
retained only a small amount of rudimentary penumbra. C1 flares: C1.2 @
03:01, C1.2 @ 03:19, C1.7 @ 04:16, C1.5 @ 10:26, C1.9 @ 15:12, C1.8 @ 16:08
UT
New region 13057 [N17E70] rotated partly into view on July 10 and was
numbered the next day by SWPC. The trailing spots have very small umbrae and
the region was mostly quiet.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7690 [S21W15] was quiet and stable.
S7695 [N22E08] was quiet and stable.
New region S7697 [S27E10] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area.
New region S7698 [S15E23] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7699 [N21E24] was observed with
tiny spots in an old plage area.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.0 | 00:11 | 13051 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.2/1N | 00:48 | S18E64 | 13056 | GOES16 | |
| C3.5 | 01:12 | 13056 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.8 | 01:53 | 13056 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 02:20 | 13055 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 05:58 | S18E65 | 13056 | GOES16 | |
| C5.1 | 07:17 | 13046 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.1/1F | 09:19 | S18E62 | 13056 | GOES16 | |
| C2.3 | 18:20 | 13057 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.1 | 18:49 | 13055 | GOES16 |
July 9-11: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
July 8: A faint, asymmetric full halo was observed in LASCO imagery after
the M2.5 LDE in AR 13053 peaking at 20:49 UT. The CME could reach Earth on
July 12.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small, poorly defined northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1087) was in an Earth facing position on July 9-10.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to active conditions are likely on July 12-13 with a chance of minor storm intervals due to effects from CH1087 and possibly a CME. Quiet conditions are likely on July 14-15.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13046 | 2022.06.30 2022.07.01 |
1 | 2 | 1 | N16W70 | 0010 | HRX | AXX |
 |
 |
area: 0006 location: N17W70 |
| 13049 | 2022.07.01 2022.07.03 |
S12W63 | location: S12W44 | ||||||||
| 13051 | 2022.07.02 2022.07.04 |
2 | 3 | 2 | N26W62 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
 |
 |
location: N28W61 |
| 13050 | 2022.07.02 2022.07.04 |
N18W68 | |||||||||
| 13052 | 2022.07.04 2022.07.05 |
1 | 3 | 1 | N14W28 | 0010 | HRX | CRO |
 |
 |
|
| 13053 | 2022.07.04 2022.07.05 |
24 | 44 | 23 | N16W06 | 0410 | EKI | EKI |
 |
 |
location: N14W08 |
| S7685 | 2022.07.05 | S13W11 | |||||||||
| 13055 | 2022.07.06 2022.07.07 |
25 | 43 | 28 | S16E05 | 0960 | EKC | EKC |
 |
 |
location: S17E07 |
| S7688 | 2022.07.07 | N17W44 | |||||||||
| S7689 | 2022.07.07 | N21W54 | |||||||||
| S7690 | 2022.07.07 | 6 | S21W15 | 0008 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S7691 | 2022.07.08 | N18E22 | |||||||||
| S7692 | 2022.07.09 | N45W16 | |||||||||
| 13056 | 2022.07.09 2022.07.10 |
9 | 21 | 12 | S17E54 | 0200 | CAO | DAI |
 |
 |
location: S17E51 |
| S7695 | 2022.07.09 | 11 | 2 | N22E08 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13057 | 2022.07.10 2022.07.11 |
2 | 14 | 8 | N17E68 | 0220 | DSO | EHO |
 |
 |
area: 0450 location: N17E70 |
| S7697 | 2022.07.11 | 5 | S27E10 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
|||||
| S7698 | 2022.07.11 | 1 | S15E23 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7699 | 2022.07.11 | 4 | 1 | N21E24 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 64 | 157 | 78 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 134 | 277 | 168 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 100 | 198 | 119 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 147 | 152 | 134 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.3 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.3 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.0 (+4.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.0 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.6 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.7 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (59.5 projected, +3.8) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 59.7 | (65.1 projected, +5.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.5 | (70.5 projected, +5.4) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.7 projected, +5.2) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (82.2 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.6 | (88.1 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 121.0 (1) | 29.4 (2A) / 82.9 (2B) / 112.3 (2C) | (95.3 projected, +7.2) | (10.3) | |
| 2022.08 | (101.9 projected, +6.6) | ||||
| 2022.09 | (106.9 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (110.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (112.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (117.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (141.4 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
