Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on July 16, 2022 at 14:10 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (July 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (July 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (July 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (July 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (July 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on July 15. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 363 and 636 km/sec under the influence of weak CME effects. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 171.4 - increasing 31.2 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 105.12). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.6). Three hour interval K indices: 22012223 (planetary), 23122322 (Boulder), 43123445 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 354) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 218) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13052 [N15W82] was quiet and stable.
Region 13053 [N15W62] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13055 [S17W49] was mostly quiet and stable. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 13:23 UT.
Region 13056 [S18W01] developed further gaining spots and area. An M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 00:42, C1.5 @ 01:26. C1.9 @ 03:56, C1.9 @ 15:22 UT
Region 13057 [N16E17] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13058 [N14E53] developed and has significant polarity intermixing. An M class flare is possible. c1 flares: C1.9 @ 05:47 UT
New region 13059 [S08E70] rotated into view on July 14 and was numbered the next day as the region developed slowly. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 10:34 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7695 [N17W42] was quiet and stable.
S7697 [S29W35] reemerged with a single spot.
S7701 [N20W07] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7703 [N12E62] was quiet and stable. SWPC appears to be grouping this with AR 13058.
New region S7704 [N33E11] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7705 [N18E60] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7706 [S06E31] emerged with a tiny spot.

Filament eruptions spanning the central meridian in the northern hemisphere were observed after 13h UT on July 15 and again at 02:57 UT on July 16. CME may be associated with these eruptions and could reach Earth on July 19-20.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.3 05:31 S18E12 13056 GOES16  
C3.1 07:24   13058 GOES16  
C3.1 07:36 S18E12 13056 GOES16  
C5.5 07:59 S19E11 13056 GOES16  
C2.1 10:07   13057 GOES16  
C5.5 12:05 N13E60 13058 GOES16  
C2.3 16:07 N12E58 13058 GOES16  
C2.0 16:37   13056 GOES16  
C2.0 17:15   13056 GOES16  
C5.8 18:16 N13E61 13058 GOES16  
C2.7 18:44 S16E03 13056 GOES16  
C2.2 19:01   13058 GOES16  
C2.9 22:13 N14E54 13058 GOES16  
C3.7/1N 23:09 N19E21 13057 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

July 13-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A small northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1088) will likely rotate across the central meridian on July 15. A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1089) could be Earth facing on July 18-20.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet conditions are likely on July 15-17.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnigh4t Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13052 2022.07.04
2022.07.05
  1   N15W84 0004   AXX  
13053 2022.07.04
2022.07.05
13 19 10 N17W61 0300 CKI EAI

area: 0180

13055 2022.07.06
2022.07.07
16 33 17 S18W48 0930 EKI EKI

location: S17W49

S7690 2022.07.07       S16W57            
S7691 2022.07.08       N18W30            
13056 2022.07.09
2022.07.10
28 68 39 S18W01 0250 EAI EAI

beta-gamma

location: S18E13

S7695 2022.07.09   4 1 N17W42 0006   BXO  
13057 2022.07.10
2022.07.11
13 35 25 N16E16 0230 CKI EHI

beta-gamma

location: N16E17

area: 0400

S7697 2022.07.11   1   S28W35            
S7698 2022.07.11       S15W22            
S7699 2022.07.11       N20W25          
13058 2022.07.13
2022.07.14
9 30 17 N14E56 0220 DAO DAI beta-gamma

location: N14E53

S7701 2022.07.13   7 1 N20W07 0010   AXX    
13059 2022.07.14
2022.07.15
2 9 6 S07E71 0180 DAO DAO location: S08E70
S7703 2022.07.14   2 1 N12E62 0060   HSX  
S7704 2022.07.15   3   N33E11 0004   AXX    
S7705 2022.07.15   1 1 N18E60 0003   AXX    
S7706 2022.07.15   1   S06E31 0001   AXX    
Total spot count: 81 214 118  
Sunspot number: 141 354 218  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 126 264 168  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 155 195 174  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.3 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.0 (+4.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.0 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.6 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.7 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (59.5 projected, +3.8) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (65.1 projected, +5.6) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.5 (70.5 projected, +5.4) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (75.7 projected, +5.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (82.2 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.6 (88.1 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 133.4 (1)   40.7 (2A) / 93.6 (2B) / 110.8 (2C) (95.3 projected, +7.2) (9.6)
2022.08       (101.9 projected, +6.6)  
2022.09       (106.9 projected, +5.0)  
2022.10       (110.1 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (112.9 projected, +2.8)  
2022.12       (117.7 projected, +4.8)  
2023.11       (141.4 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.