The geomagnetic field was quiet on July 20. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 372 and 498 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 132.2 - increasing 10.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 106.14). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 6 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 5.8). Three hour interval K indices: 22112112 (planetary), 32122221 (Boulder), 34213333 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 15 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 285) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 157) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13056 [S13W73] decayed slowly producing
many C flares. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 05:23, C1.5
@ 09:02, C1.8 @ 09:15, C1.2 @ 16:57, C1.3 @ 22:37 UT
Region 13057 [N17W52] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13058 [N14W14] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13059 [S08W02] was quiet and stable.
Region 13060 [N11W06] decayed slowly and quietly. An interesting C5.6
flare was recorded at 01:11 UT on July 21 at N14W01. Some coronal dimming
was observed, as was a very faint (at least partial halo) CME.
Region 13061 [N25W76] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13062 [S25E63] was unchanged and produced a long duration C4
event near the end of the day.
New region 13063 [N10E12] emerged on July 18 and was numbered 2 days
later by SWPC.
New region 13064 [N08E30] emerged on July 19 with SWPC numbered the
region the following day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7712 [N28E26] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7713 [N17W04] was quiet and stable.
S7717 [N21W25] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S7718 [S17E44] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
New region S7719 [N40E05] emerged with a tiny spot at a high latitude
location.
New region S7720 [N25W03] emerged with tiny spots.
A C1.9 flare was recorded at 00:15 UT from a location behind the southwest limb.
C2+ flares:
Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
C3.3 | 02:15 | N13E04 | 13058 | GOES16 | |
C2.0 | 04:07 | 13056 | GOES16 | ||
C2.1 | 10:29 | 13056 | GOES16 | ||
C2.0 | 11:38 | 13056 | GOES16 | ||
C2.0 | 12:26 | 13056 | GOES16 | ||
C2.0 | 15:04 | 13056 | GOES16 | ||
C2.9 | 19:31 | 13056 | GOES16 | ||
C3.9 | 19:51 | 13056 | GOES16 | ||
C4.1 | 00:09 (on July 21, the event began at 23:01) | 13062 | GOES16 | LDE, CME |
July 21: A faint CME was observed after a C5.6 flare near center disk
in AR 13060. The CME could reach Earth either late on July 24 or on July 25.
July 19-20: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
July 18: A partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption in
the southern hemisphere after 20h UT. The filament eruption triggered
activity in AR 13056 and a partial halo CME was observed late in the day.
While the bulk of the CME is not headed towards Earth, there is a chance of
weak effects on July 22.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A large trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1089) was Earth facing on July 18-20.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to minor storm conditions are possible on July 21-23 due to effects from CH1089 and possibly from the July 18 CME. Quiet to active is possible on July 24-25 if the July 21 CME reaches Earth.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnigh4t | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
2K | 1K | ||||||||||
13056 | 2022.07.09 2022.07.10 |
7 | 14 | 5 | S14W73 | 0040 | CRO | CRI |
location: S13W73 |
||
13057 | 2022.07.10 2022.07.11 |
8 | 18 | 6 | N17W48 | 0200 | HSX | CHO |
location: N17W52 area: 0260 |
||
13058 | 2022.07.13 2022.07.14 |
5 | 10 | 7 | N13W15 | 0030 | BXO | CRO |
location: N14W14 |
||
13059 | 2022.07.14 2022.07.15 |
8 | 22 | 10 | S08W00 | 0130 | CSO | CSO |
location: S08W02 area: 0160 |
||
13060 | 2022.07.14 2022.07.16 |
6 | 8 | 2 | N13W06 | 0030 | HRX | CAO | location: N11W06 | ||
S7704 | 2022.07.15 | N33W54 | |||||||||
S7705 | 2022.07.15 | N18W05 | |||||||||
S7706 | 2022.07.15 | S06W34 | |||||||||
S7707 | 2022.07.16 | S15W25 | |||||||||
13061 | 2022.07.16 2022.07.17 |
1 | 1 | N24W78 | 0003 | AXX | location: N24W76 | ||||
13063 | 2022.07.18 2022.07.20 |
8 | 22 | 12 | N10E09 | 0030 | BXO | DRI |
area: 0060 location: N10E12 |
||
S7710 | 2022.07.18 | S15E43 | |||||||||
S7711 | 2022.07.18 | N25W10 | |||||||||
S7712 | 2022.07.18 | 2 | N28E26 | 0002 | AXX | ||||||
S7713 | 2022.07.19 | 8 | 4 | N17W04 | 0025 | CRO | |||||
13062 | 2022.07.19 2022.07.19 |
1 | 1 | 1 | S26E60 | 0070 | HSX | HSX |
location: S25E63 area: 0090 |
||
13064 | 2022.07.19 2022.07.20 |
6 | 20 | 9 | N08E29 | 0030 | BXO | DRO | |||
S7717 | 2022.07.19 | 4 | N21W25 | 0004 | BXO | ||||||
S7718 | 2022.07.20 | 2 | S17E44 | 0005 | AXX | ||||||
S7719 | 2022.07.20 | 1 | N40E05 | 0001 | AXX | ||||||
S7720 | 2022.07.20 | 2 | N25W03 | 0003 | AXX | ||||||
Total spot count: | 49 | 135 | 57 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 129 | 285 | 157 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
Weighted SN: | 70 | 175 | 97 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 142 | 157 | 126 |
Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Measured | 1 AU | ||||
2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.3 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.3 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.0 (+4.7) | 6.33 |
2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.0 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.6 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.7 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (59.5 projected, +3.8) | 8.92 |
2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 59.7 | (65.1 projected, +5.6) | 10.46 |
2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.5 | (70.5 projected, +5.4) | 10.20 |
2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.7 projected, +5.2) | 11.79 |
2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (82.2 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.6 | (88.1 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
2022.07 | 138.2 (1) | 67.5 (2A) / 104.6 (2B) / 107.2 (2C) | (95.3 projected, +7.2) | (9.6) | |
2022.08 | (101.9 projected, +6.6) | ||||
2022.09 | (106.9 projected, +5.0) | ||||
2022.10 | (110.1 projected, +3.2) | ||||
2022.11 | (112.9 projected, +2.8) | ||||
2022.12 | (117.7 projected, +4.8) | ||||
2023.11 | (141.4 projected max SC25) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.