The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 12 under the influence of weak coronal hole effects. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 121.3 - decreasing 40.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 100.66). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 10 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.6). Three hour interval K indices: 12223332 (planetary), ******** (Boulder), 42234533 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 16 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 285) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 164) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13029 [S23W21] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC has moved AR 13029 westwards to the position of AR
S7622.
Region 13030 [N19E37] was quiet and stable.
Region 13031 [S26E20] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13032 [N20E47] rotated into view on June 9 and was
numbered by SWPC as they finally realized their initial misinterpretation.
The region developed all day and has polarity intermixing. The region was
the source of a long duration M3.4 flare peaking at 04:07 UT. A significant
CME was likely produced with this event, however, analysis awaits the
availability of relevant LASCO imagery. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 06:16, C1.3 @
07:03, C1.8 @ 08:42, C1.5 @ 22:10 UT.
New region 13033 [N16E66] rotated into view on June 11 and developed
slowly. Further C flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.0 @ 19:47, C1.3 @ 20:08
UT.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7609 [S23W81] gained a few tiny spots and was quiet.
S7622 [S18W52] was quiet and stable.
S7623 [S21E11] was quiet and stable.
S7628 [S15E17] was quiet and stable.
S7629 [N17E17] was quiet and stable.
New region S7634 [N00E81] began to rotate into view near noon
and is a very unusual region in that the leader spot extends both into the
northern and southern hemisphere. This equatorial sunspot group is likely an
SC24 group, highly surprising considering that the solar minimum is 2.5
years in the past. C flares are possible.
New region S7635 [S18E80] rotated into view at noon and was mostly
quiet.
New region S7636 [S13W28] emerged before noon, then decayed
slowly.
New region S7637 [N17E02] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7638 [S13W11] emerged with tiny
spots.
New region S7639 [N11W09] emerged with tiny spots inside CH1081.
Minor update added at 09:50 UT: An impressive partial halo CME was observed after the M3.4 LDE. While Earth will likely not be in the path of the main ejecta, parts of the CME could reach us on June 16 and cause unsettled to minor storm conditions.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.0 | 21:40 | 13033 | GOES16 |
June 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
June 13: An Earth directed CME may be associated with the M3.4 LDE in
AR 13032.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1081) was Earth facing position on June 11-13. A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1082) will likely rotate across the central meridian on June 15.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet to active is likely on June 13 to to coronal hole effects. Quiet to active conditions are expected on June 14-16 due to effects from CH1081. CME effects are possible on June 16-17 if the June M3 event produced an Earth directed CME.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| S7609 | 2022.06.02 | 5 | S23W81 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 13029 | 2022.06.03 2022.06.04 |
8 | 2 | S17W53 | 0015 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S23W32 Note that SWPC has moved the location of this group to that of AR S7622 |
||
| 13028 | 2022.06.04 2022.06.04 |
N14W60 | location: N14W54 | ||||||||
| S7622 | 2022.06.08 | 3 | S18W52 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S7623 | 2022.06.08 | 11 | 3 | S21E11 | 0030 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13030 | 2022.06.09 2022.06.10 |
9 | 19 | 8 | N20E35 | 0040 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0090 location: N19E37 |
| S7625 | 2022.06.09 | N19W40 | |||||||||
| 13032 | 2022.06.09 2022.06.12 |
5 | 20 | 11 | N21E46 | 0090 | DAI | DAC |
 |
 |
area: 0180 beta-gamma |
| S7627 | 2022.06.09 | N19W25 | |||||||||
| S7628 | 2022.06.10 | 11 | 2 | S15E17 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S7629 | 2022.06.10 | 6 | 2 | N17E17 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13031 | 2022.06.10 2022.06.11 |
5 | 22 | 7 | S27E23 | 0030 | CRO | CRI |
 |
 |
location: S26E20 |
| 13033 | 2022.06.11 2022.06.12 |
4 | 9 | 4 | N17E64 | 0030 | BXO | CAO |
 |
 |
location: N16E66 |
| S7632 | 2022.06.11 | N17W16 |
 |
||||||||
| S7633 | 2022.06.11 | S38W42 |
 |
||||||||
| S7634 | 2022.06.12 | 3 | 2 | N00E81 | 0180 | DSO |
 |
 |
|||
| S7635 | 2022.06.12 | 2 | 1 | S18E80 | 0060 | CSO |
 |
 |
|||
| S7636 | 2022.06.12 | 1 | S13W28 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S7637 | 2022.06.12 | 1 | N17E02 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7638 | 2022.06.12 | 2 | 1 | S13W11 | 0005 | BXO |
 |
||||
| S7639 | 2022.06.12 | 2 | 1 | N11W09 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 23 | 125 | 44 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 63 | 285 | 164 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 36 | 153 | 72 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 69 | 157 | 131 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.3 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.3 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.0 (+4.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.0 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.6 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | (55.7 projected, +5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (60.4 projected, +4.7) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 59.7 | (66.9 projected, +6.5) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.5 | (72.4 projected, +5.5) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (77.6 projected, +5.2) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (84.1 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 104.2 (1) | 17.5 (2A) / 43.7 (2B) / 96.9 (2C) | (89.9 projected, +5.8) | (5.3) | |
| 2022.07 | (97.2 projected, +7.3) | ||||
| 2022.08 | (103.8 projected, +6.6) | ||||
| 2022.09 | (108.8 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (112.0 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (114.8 projected, +2.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
