Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on June 14, 2022 at 10:10 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (June 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (June 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (June 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (June 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (June 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (April 10, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on June 13 under the influence of coronal hole effects. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 131.5 - decreasing 39.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 100.83). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 13.5). Three hour interval K indices: 45222232 (planetary), ******** (Boulder), 46223333 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 14 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 294) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 174) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13029 [S23W21] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC has moved AR 13029 westwards to the position of AR S7622.
Region 13030 [N19E23] decayed early in the day, then developed slowly as new flux emerged in the central parts. C1 flare: C1.1 @ 23:32 UT
Region 13031 [S28E10] decayed slowly before noon, then developed quickly as new flux emerged in the southeastern part of the region. C and M class flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 16:51, C1.4 @ 18:37, C1.3 @ 20:35 UT
Region 13032 [N20E32] decayed slowly after the M3 flare, however, further M class flares may be possible
Region 13033 [N16E53] gained spots and was mostly quiet. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 01:28, C1.2 @ 17:42 UT
New region 13034 [N01E68] rotated into view on June 12 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. The region decayed slightly in the trailing spot section and was quiet. This is likely an SC24 group.
New region 13035 [S18E67] rotated into view on June 12 and was numbered by SWPC the next day. The region was quiet.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7623 [S21W01] was quiet and stable.
S7628 [S16E09] was quiet and stable.
S7629 [N18E08] was quiet and stable.
S7636 [S13W41] gained spots and area and could produce C flares.
S7637 [N17W12] was quiet and stable.
New region S7640 [N22E43] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7641 [S19E32] was observed with a tiny spot.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
M3.4/1N 04:07 N22E45 13032 GOES16 wide flare center, LDE, CME, moderate type II and weak type IV radio sweep
C2.0 10:57   13033 GOES16  
C8.5 21:24   13031 GOES16 impulsive

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

June 10-12: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
June 13: The M3.4 LDE in AR 13032 peaking at 04:07 UT was associated with a very dense CME core off the east limbs. Faint component of the CME were observed over most of the western limbs. The core of the CME will probably not reach Earth, but if it does it will likely be early on June 15 and could cause severe geomagnetic storming. The faint shock associated with the CME is more likely to reach Earth and, provided that the CME core doesn't reach Earth, could cause unsettled to minor storm intervals on June 15-16.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1081) was Earth facing position on June 11-13. A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1082) will likely rotate across the central meridian on June 15.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.

Forecast

Quiet conditions are expected most of June 14. Late in the day or early on June 15 a high speed stream from CH1081 could cause unsettled to minor storm conditions. A solar wind shock associated with the June 13 LDE could reach Earth on June 15 with a possibility for active to minor storm conditions (severe storm is possible should the CME core reach us) that day and on June 16.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13029 2022.06.03
2022.06.04
  3   S17W67 0003   BXO

location: S21W49

Note that SWPC has moved the location of this group to that of AR S7622

13028 2022.06.04
2022.06.04
      N14W74           location: N14W54
S7622 2022.06.08       S18W65          
S7623 2022.06.08   12 5 S21W01 0030   BXO  
13030 2022.06.09
2022.06.10
5 17 11 N20E21 0040 DAO ERI area: 0080

location: N19E23

S7625 2022.06.09       N19W53            
13032 2022.06.09
2022.06.12
9 28 13 N21E33 0180 DAI DAO area: 0140

location: N20E32

beta-gamma

S7627 2022.06.09       N19W38            
S7628 2022.06.10   11   S16E09 0015   BXO  
S7629 2022.06.10   6 3 N18E08 0012   AXX  
13031 2022.06.10
2022.06.11
10 34 20 S27E09 0020 CRO DAI location: S28E10

area: 0120

13033 2022.06.11
2022.06.12
7 18 9 N17E52 0050 DSO DRI location: N16E53
S7632 2022.06.11       N17W29            
S7633 2022.06.11       S38W55            
13034 2022.06.12
2022.06.13
3 3 3 N01E69 0110 DSO CSO area: 0150

likely SC24 group

13035 2022.06.12
2022.06.13
2 6 3 S18E68 0080 DSO CAO  
S7636 2022.06.12   10 5 S13W41 0040   DRI  
S7637 2022.06.12   2   N17W12 0002   BXO  
S7638 2022.06.12       S13W24          
S7639 2022.06.12       N11W22          
S7640 2022.06.13   3 2 N22E43 0010   CRO    
S7641 2022.06.13   1   S19E32| 0001   AXX    
Total spot count: 36 154 74  
Sunspot number: 96 294 174  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 64 186 106  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 106 162 139  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.3 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.0 (+4.7) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.0 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.6 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 (55.7 projected, +5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (60.4 projected, +4.7) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (66.9 projected, +6.5) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.5 (72.4 projected, +5.5) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.1 (77.6 projected, +5.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (84.1 projected, +6.5) 7.48
2022.06 106.3 (1)   20.7 (2A) / 47.7 (2B) / 96.9 (2C) (89.9 projected, +5.8) (5.9)
2022.07       (97.2 projected, +7.3)  
2022.08       (103.8 projected, +6.6)  
2022.09       (108.8 projected, +5.0)  
2022.10       (112.0 projected, +3.2)  
2022.11       (114.8 projected, +2.8)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.