The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on June 14 under the influence of coronal hole effects. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. A high speed stream was observed arriving at DSCOVR at 03:57 on June 15.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 145.5 - decreasing 34.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 101.03). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 6.6). Three hour interval K indices: 22212213 (planetary), 24335323 (Boulder), 31222224 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 348) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 201) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13030 [N19E07] was mostly quiet and
stable. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 04:52 UT
Region 13031 [S26W03] developed fairly quickly and has gained 2
magnetic delta structures in the trailing and central spot sections. M class
flaring is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 02:03, C1.5 @ 06:49, C1.2 @ 07:18,
C1.7 @ 09:44, C1.7 @ 12:36, C1.5 @ 16:08, C1.7 @ 17:08, C1.2 @ 22:45 UT
Region 13032 [N20E19] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. C1 flares:
C1.3 @ 08:52 UT
Region 13033 [N17E41] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13034 [N01E54] was quiet and stable. This is likely an SC24 group.
Region 13035 [S18E52] was quiet and stable.
New region 13036 [S12W54] emerged on June 12 and was numbered by SWPC
2 days later. The region developed further on June 14 and could produce a
minor M class flare. There's polarity intermixing in the southern part of
the trailing spot section. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 16:02 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7623 [S20W13] developed and gained mature
penumbra on one spot.
S7628 [S17W05] was quiet and stable.
S7629 [N18W05] was quiet and stable.
New region S7642 [N13E83] rotated partly into view with a tiny spot.
New region S7643 [N12E02] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7644 [N07W07] was observed with tiny spots in an old
plage area.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C3.5 | 04:00 | 13030 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 05:40 | 13031 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 10:06 | GOES16 | |||
| C2.2 | 11:12 | S14W44 | 13036 | GOES16 | |
| C2.9 | 11:32 | N20E17 | 13030 | GOES16 | |
| C2.9 | 11:50 | 13031 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.5 | 13:13 | 13036 | GOES16 | ||
| C8.5 | 13:26 | S28E05 | 13031 | GOES16 | |
| C8.6 | 14:20 | S28E05 | 13031 | GOES16 | |
| C7.2 | 14:28 | S28E01 | 13031 | GOES16 | |
| C3.9 | 17:44 | N13E43 | 13033 | GOES16 | |
| C2.2 | 18:42 | 13031 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.6 | 23:24 | S19W58 | 13036 | GOES16 |
June 12, 14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
June 13: The M3.4 LDE in
AR 13032 peaking at 04:07 UT was associated with a very dense CME core off
the east limbs. Faint component of the CME were observed over most of the
western limbs. The core of the CME will probably not reach Earth, but if it
does it will likely be early on June 15 and could cause severe geomagnetic
storming. The faint shock associated with the CME is more likely to reach
Earth and, provided that the CME core doesn't reach Earth, could cause
unsettled to minor storm intervals on June 15-16.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1081) was Earth facing position on June 11-13. A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1082) will likely rotate across the central meridian on June 15.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet to minor storm conditions are likely on June 15-16 due to effects from CH1081 becoming quiet to unsettled on June 17. Quiet to active is likely on June 18 due to effects from CH1082.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13029 | 2022.06.03 2022.06.04 |
S17W81 |
 |
location: S21W62 Note that SWPC has moved the location of this group to that of AR S7622 |
|||||||
| 13028 | 2022.06.04 2022.06.04 |
N14W88 | |||||||||
| S7622 | 2022.06.08 | S18W78 | |||||||||
| S7623 | 2022.06.08 | 20 | 6 | S20W13 | 0060 | DAO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13030 | 2022.06.09 2022.06.10 |
7 | 36 | 18 | N20E09 | 0040 | DAO | ERI |
 |
 |
area: 0070 location: N19E07 |
| 13032 | 2022.06.09 2022.06.12 |
7 | 23 | 9 | N21E19 | 0120 | DSO | DSO |
 |
 |
area: 0140 location: N20E19 |
| S7627 | 2022.06.09 | N19W51 | |||||||||
| S7628 | 2022.06.10 | 6 | 1 | S17W05 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S7629 | 2022.06.10 | 9 | 3 | N18W05 | 0014 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13031 | 2022.06.10 2022.06.11 |
15 | 49 | 27 | S27W04 | 0160 | DAI | EAC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: S26W03 area: 0420 |
| 13033 | 2022.06.11 2022.06.12 |
12 | 35 | 18 | N17E41 | 0070 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0110 |
| S7632 | 2022.06.11 | N17W42 | |||||||||
| 13034 | 2022.06.12 2022.06.13 |
2 | 8 | 5 | N01E55 | 0070 | CSO | CSO |
 |
 |
area: 0160 likely SC24 group |
| 13035 | 2022.06.12 2022.06.13 |
4 | 12 | 6 | S18E54 | 0050 | CSO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0090 |
| 13036 | 2022.06.12 2022.06.14 |
4 | 15 | 8 | S12W56 | 0050 | DSO | DAO |
 |
 |
area: 0160 location: S12W54 |
| S7637 | 2022.06.12 | N17W25 |
 |
||||||||
| S7638 | 2022.06.12 | S13W37 | |||||||||
| S7639 | 2022.06.12 | N11W35 | |||||||||
| S7640 | 2022.06.13 | N22E30 |
 |
||||||||
| S7641 | 2022.06.13 | S19E19 |
 |
||||||||
| S7642 | 2022.06.14 | 1 | N13E83 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7643 | 2022.06.14 | 2 | N12E02 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| S7644 | 2022.06.14 | 2 | N07W07 | 0003 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 51 | 218 | 101 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 121 | 348 | 201 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 86 | 256 | 139 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 133 | 191 | 161 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.3 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.3 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.0 (+4.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.0 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.6 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | (55.7 projected, +5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (60.4 projected, +4.7) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 59.7 | (66.9 projected, +6.5) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.5 | (72.4 projected, +5.5) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (77.6 projected, +5.2) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (84.1 projected, +6.5) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 109.1 (1) | 24.7 (2A) / 52.9 (2B) / 97.6 (2C) | (89.9 projected, +5.8) | (6.0) | |
| 2022.07 | (97.2 projected, +7.3) | ||||
| 2022.08 | (103.8 projected, +6.6) | ||||
| 2022.09 | (108.8 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (112.0 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2022.11 | (114.8 projected, +2.8) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
