Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 2, 2022 at 10:45 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (March 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (March 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (March 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (March 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (March 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 1, weakly under the influence of a high speed stream associated with CH1066. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 99.3 - decreasing 27.2 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 86.73). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.8). Three hour interval K indices: 22322122 (planetary), 11333222 (Boulder), 42222344 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B2 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 150) and in 6 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 88) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12954 [N17W45] was quiet and stable.
Region 12955 [N15W36] was quiet and stable.
Region 12956 [N23W09] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 12957 [S13E27] was quiet and stable.
Region 12958 [N17E38] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7392 [N20W15] was quiet and stable.
S7393 [S14E37] developed further and was mostly quiet. C flares are possible.
New region S7397 [N05E08] emerged with a tiny spot. Polarities are reversed and this is likely an SC24 group.
New region S7398 [S27E40] emerged with tiny spots.

Active regions behind the northeast and southeast limbs could rotate into view today and tomorrow.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

February 27 - March 1: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1067) will rotate into an Earth facing position on March 1-4.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on March 2-3. A high speed stream associated with CH1067 could cause quiet to active conditions on March 4-7.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12954 2022.02.20
2022.02.20
1 2 2 N18W44 0070 HSX HSX

area: 0100

location: N17W45

12955 2022.02.20
2022.02.21
1 3 1 N16W34 0050 HSX CSO area: 0110

location: N15W36

12956 2022.02.25
2022.02.27
3 5 4 N27W09 0010 BXO CRO area: 0020

location: N23W09

S7388 2022.02.25       S41W28            
S7389 2022.02.25       S11W44            
12957 2022.02.26
2022.02.27
5 7 3 S12E34 0030 CRO CRO location: S13E27

SWPC includes AR S7393 in this group

12958 2022.02.27
2022.02.28
2 14 6 N18E37 0020 CRO CRI location: N17E38

area: 0040

S7392 2022.02.27   2   N20W15 0002      
S7393 2022.02.27   23 12 S14E37 0120   DAI  
S7394 2022.02.28       S26W56          
S7395 2022.02.28       S12E16          
S7396 2022.03.01       S20W17          
S7397 2022.03.01   1   N05E08 0001   AXX   likely SC24 group
S7398 2022.03.01   3   S27E40 0004   BXO    
Total spot count: 12 60 28  
Sunspot number: 62 150 88  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 28 84 52  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 68 83 70  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.5 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.7 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+3.9) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 (39.9 projected, +4.6) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (43.6 projected, +3.7) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.0 (48.2 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (54.0 projected, +5.8) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (57.7 projected, +3.7) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (62.4 projected, +4.7) 10.5
2022.03 99.3 (1)   2.0 (2A) / 62 (2B) / 78.1 (2C) (67.9 projected, +5.5) (7.8)
2022.04       (73.0 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (79.4 projected, +6.4)  
2022.06       (85.3 projected, +5.9)  
2022.07       (92.6 projected, +7.3)  
2022.08       (99.2 projected, +6.6)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.