Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on March 8, 2022 at 09:50 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (March 1, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (March 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (March 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (June 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (March 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (March 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 22, 2021) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on March 7 due to lingering effects from CH1067. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 118.3 - decreasing 4.8 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 87.37). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 8 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.8). Three hour interval K indices: 32123222 (planetary), 23223322 (Boulder), 43213443 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B7 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 7 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 184) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 129) SDO/HMI images.

Region 12957 [S12W55] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. This is the original NOAA AR number. On March 3 SWPC split what they had previously considered as one region and assigned 12961 to this region. To preserve data consistency and integrity the original numbering is kept. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 15:04 UT
Region 12960 [S20E18] was quiet and stable. Weak polarity intermixing was noted.
Region 12962 [N27E28] gained a few tiny spots and was quiet.
New region 12963 [S18W11] was first observed with spots on March 5 with SWPC numbering the region 2 days later as it began to decay.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7393 [S17W41] was quiet and in slow decay.
S7408 [S27W15] developed further and was quiet.
S7409 [N20E32] was quiet and stable.

AR S7410 rotated into view at the northeast limb early on March 8 and has a large leader spot. The region could be capable of producing M class flares. C1 flares: C1.8 @ 22:49 UT

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

March 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

No coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing locations.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on March 8 and quiet on March 9-11.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
12957 2022.02.26
2022.02.27
7 5 2 S17W46 0120 DSO CRO location: S12W55

area: 0010

Originally AR 12957. SWPC has renumbered the region as AR 12961

12958 2022.02.27
2022.02.28
      N17W43        

location: N18W45

S7393 2022.02.27   15 7 S17W41 0130   EAO

SWPC has this as AR 12957

12961 2022.03.03 3     S13W55 0010 BXO       this is originally AR 12957
S7398 2022.03.01       S24W36          
12959 2022.03.02
2022.03.03
      S19W33        

location: S18W12

12960 2022.03.02
2022.03.03
14 30 16 S21E18 0340 EHI EHI area: 0450

location: S20E18

S7402 2022.03.03       S25W23            
S7403 2022.03.04       N11W23            
S7404 2022.03.05       N13W08            
12963 2022.03.05
2022.03.07
5 22 13 S18W11 0010 BXO CRI area: 0040

location: S18W13

12962 2022.03.05 5 25 12 N28E30 0030 CRO DRI location: N27E28

area: 0050

S7407 2022.03.06       N09E02          
S7408 2022.03.06   14 8 S27W15 0050   DRI  
S7409 2022.03.06   3 1 N20E32 0005   BXO  
S741 2022.03.08       N22E89          
Total spot count: 34 114 59  
Sunspot number: 84 184 129  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 52 141 86  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 92 101 103  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2020.08 71.6 73.4 7.5 9.5 (+0.5) 5.68
2020.09 70.7 71.4 0.7 10.5 (+1.0) 8.59
2020.10 74.6 74.2 14.6 11.9 (+1.4) 6.13
2020.11 89.9 88.0 34.5 13.6 (+1.7) 4.77
2020.12 86.9 84.2 23.1 15.3 (+1.7) 4.72
2021.01 76.0 73.6 10.4 17.3 (+2.0) 4.39
2021.02 74.3 72.4 8.2 19.0 (+1.7) 9.50
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.7 (+1.9) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.7) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.3 (+3.9) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 (39.9 projected, +4.6) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 38.1 (43.6 projected, +3.7) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 35.0 (48.2 projected, +4.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.6 (54.0 projected, +5.8) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 54.0 (57.7 projected, +3.7) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 59.7 (62.4 projected, +4.7) 10.5
2022.03 112.4 (1)   15.3 (2A) / 79.7 (2B) / 77.7 (2C) (67.9 projected, +5.5) (11.2)
2022.04       (73.0 projected, +5.1)  
2022.05       (79.4 projected, +6.4)  
2022.06       (85.3 projected, +5.9)  
2022.07       (92.6 projected, +7.3)  
2022.08       (99.2 projected, +6.6)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.