The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on March 31. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels. A solar wind shock was observed at 01:41 UT at DSCOVR, the arrival of one or both CMEs observed on March 28.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 149 - increasing 35.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 90.12). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 25 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 25.0). Three hour interval K indices: 55444422 (planetary), 45344522 (Boulder), 55434342 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 289) and in 11 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 197) SDO/HMI images.
Region 12975 [N13W50] produced another major flare
and numerous C flares. Further major flares are possible. C1 flares:
C1.9 @ 02:54, C1.8 @ 03:40, C1.3 @ 23:12 UT.
Region 12976 [N15W34] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet. An M class
flare is possible.
Region 12978 [S17E25] was mostly quiet and stable and has M class flare
potential.
New region 12981 [S26E33] was finally numbered by SWPC, 4 days after
rotating into view. The region developed slowly on March 31. C1 flares: C1.4
@ 00:25 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7465 [S04W64] decayed slowly and quietly. This is an
SC24 group.
S7467 [S19W13] was quiet and stable.
S7468 [S18E60] was quiet and stable.
S7469 [S17E45] was quiet and stable.
S7470 [N23E68] was quiet and stable.
S7471 [N16E13] developed slowly and quietly.
New region S7472 [N14E58] emerged with a tiny spot.
AR S7455 behind the southwest limb produced several flares. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 07:22, C1.6 @ 17:18 UT.
C2+ flares:
Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
C3.2 | 05:42 | 12975 | GOES16 | ||
C3.9 | 08:00 | S24W90 | S7455 | GOES16 | |
C2.0 | 09:17 | S24W90 | S7455 | GOES16 | |
C2.4 | 10:20 | S24W90 | S7455 | GOES16 | |
C2.8 | 11:32 | S24W90 | S7455 | GOES16 | |
C5.4 | 12:11 | S24W90 | S7455 | GOES16 | |
C2.4 | 13:16 | 12981 | GOES16 | wrongly attributed to AR 12975 by SWPC | |
C2.9 | 14:13 | 12981 | GOES16 | ||
C3.8 | 14:38 | 12981 | GOES16 | ||
C2.1 | 15:14 | S24W90 | S7455 | GOES16 | |
C2.0 | 16:00 | 12981 | GOES16 | ||
C2.0 | 16:47 | 12975 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR S7455 behind the SW limb | |
C2.1 | 17:34 | S24W90 | S7455 | GOES16 | |
M9.6/1B | 18:35 | N13W47 | 12975 | GOES16 | moderate type II radio sweep |
C5.4 | 19:33 | 12981 | GOES16 | ||
C2.6 | 20:57 | S15E23 | 12978 | GOES16 | CME? |
C4.4 | 23:52 | 12975 | GOES16 |
March 30: A full halo CME was observed after
the X1 event in AR 12975. The CME could impact Earth on April 1 or early on
April 2 and cause active to major storm conditions. Another and more
impressive full halo CME was observed early in the day in LASCO imagery. The
source of this event was likely backsided, about 6 days behind the northeast
limb given the distribution of the ejecta.
March 29, 31: No obviously Earth directed CMEs
were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1071) will rotated across the central meridian on March 30-31.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to major storm conditions is likely on April 1-3 due to CME effects.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
2K | 1K | ||||||||||
12974 | 2022.03.21 2022.03.22 |
S19W55 |
location: S20W51 |
||||||||
12975 | 2022.03.22 2022.03.23 |
20 | 47 | 23 | N13W52 | 0330 | DKC | EKC |
beta-gamma-delta area: 0420 |
||
12976 | 2022.03.22 2022.03.24 |
6 | 24 | 15 | N16W31 | 0410 | EKO | EKO |
beta-gamma location: N15W34 area: 0550 |
||
12979 | 2022.03.25 2022.03.28 |
S22W34 | location: S19W27 | ||||||||
12977 | 2022.03.26 2022.03.27 |
N18W64 | location: N21W64 | ||||||||
12978 | 2022.03.27 2022.03.27 |
7 | 34 | 16 | S18E28 | 0400 | EHO | EHO |
location: S17E25 area: 0650 |
||
12980 | 2022.03.27 2022.03.28 |
N04W68 |
location: N08W66 |
||||||||
S7457 | 2022.03.27 | N25W10 | |||||||||
12981 | 2022.03.27 2022.03.31 |
11 | 44 | 22 | S26E31 | 0030 | DRI | DRI |
beta-gamma area: 0140 location: S26E33 |
||
S7459 | 2022.03.27 | N40W18 | |||||||||
S7461 | 2022.03.28 | N20W01 | |||||||||
S7462 | 2022.03.28 | S14W04 | |||||||||
S7463 | 2022.03.28 | S42E10 | |||||||||
S7464 | 2022.03.28 | S28E07 | |||||||||
S7465 | 2022.03.29 | 2 | 1 | S04W64 | 0010 | HRX | SC24 group | ||||
S7466 | 2022.03.29 | N21W56 | |||||||||
S7467 | 2022.03.29 | 3 | 2 | S19W13 | 0007 | BXO | |||||
S7468 | 2022.03.29 | 2 | 1 | S18E60 | 0050 | HAX | |||||
S7469 | 2022.03.30 | 2 | 1 | S17E45 | 0005 | AXX | |||||
S7470 | 2022.03.30 | 1 | 1 | N23E68 | 0050 | HSX | |||||
S7471 | 2022.03.30 | 6 | 4 | N16E13 | 0015 | BXO | |||||
S7472 | 2022.03.31 | 1 | N14E58 | 0002 | AXX | ||||||
S7473 | 2022.03.31 | 3 | 1 | S26E17 | 0006 | BXO | |||||
Total spot count: | 44 | 169 | 87 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 84 | 289 | 197 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
Weighted SN: | 77 | 215 | 133 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 92 | 159 | 158 |
Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Measured | 1 AU | ||||
2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
2020.08 | 71.6 | 73.4 | 7.5 | 9.5 (+0.5) | 5.68 |
2020.09 | 70.7 | 71.4 | 0.7 | 10.5 (+1.0) | 8.59 |
2020.10 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 14.6 | 11.9 (+1.4) | 6.13 |
2020.11 | 89.9 | 88.0 | 34.5 | 13.6 (+1.7) | 4.77 |
2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.7 (+1.9) | 5.52 |
2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.3 (+3.9) | 6.19 |
2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | (39.9 projected, +4.6) | 6.33 |
2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 38.1 | (43.6 projected, +3.7) | 7.38 |
2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 35.0 | (48.2 projected, +4.6) | 9.83 |
2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.6 | (54.0 projected, +5.8) | 6.40 |
2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (57.7 projected, +3.7) | 8.92 |
2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 59.7 | (62.4 projected, +4.7) | 10.46 |
2022.03 | 117.0 (1) | 69.1 (2A/2B) / 94.3 (2C) | (67.9 projected, +5.5) | (10.1) | |
2022.04 | (73.0 projected, +5.1) | ||||
2022.05 | (79.4 projected, +6.4) | ||||
2022.06 | (85.3 projected, +5.9) | ||||
2022.07 | (92.6 projected, +7.3) | ||||
2022.08 | (99.2 projected, +6.6) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.