The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on May 15 under the influence of a high speed stream associated with CH1078. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 153.6 - increasing 15.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 96.87). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 11 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 11.3). Three hour interval K indices: 44222321 (planetary), 44332322 (Boulder), 55333311 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 307) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 167) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13006 [S30W73] decayed further and was
mostly quiet.
Region 13007 [S22W20] lost area and remained relatively simple structured
magnetically. The region was mostly quiet despite having many spots. C1 flares: C1.3
@ 03:24, C1.5 @ 08:01 UT
Region 13008 [N17W18] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13010 [S16E37] decayed slowly and has
only tiny spots and small spots with rudimentary penumbra.
Region 13011 [N17E37] was quiet and stable.
Region 13013 [S27E16] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13014 [N22E53] rotated into view on May 13 and was
numbered by SWPC 2 days later as the region was developing slowly.
New region 13015 [N13E54] rotated into view on May 13 and was quiet
as the region was numbered by SWPC 2 days later. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 19:52,
C1.4 @ 20:49 UT
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7568 [N14E01] was quiet and stable.
New region S7572 [S17E84] rotated into view with a single spot.
New region S7573 [N05E24] emerged with a tiny spot and is
likely an SC24 group.
New region S7574 [N13E78] rotated into view
with small spots. C1 flares: C1.9 @ 12:17, C1.4 @ 13:36 UT
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.2 | 05:38 | S7574 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 06:23 | 13006 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 23:41 | S7574 | GOES16 | simultaneous event in AR 13007 |
May 13-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1078) rotated across the central meridian on May 12-14. A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1079) will be Earth facing on May 15-17.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor to fair.
Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on May 16-20 due to effects from CH1078 and CH1079, occasional active intervals are possible.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13006 | 2022.05.02 2022.05.04 |
3 | 5 | 1 | S31W72 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
|
| 13007 | 2022.05.07 2022.05.08 |
30 | 64 | 37 | S24W21 | 0340 | EKC | EAI |
 |
 |
location: S22W20 |
| S7555 | 2022.05.08 | N02W59 | likely SC24 group | ||||||||
| 13012 | 2022.05.09 2022.05.13 |
S19W25 | location: S17W30 | ||||||||
| 13008 | 2022.05.10 2022.05.11 |
3 | N16W19 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| 13013 | 2022.05.11 2022.05.14 |
1 | 5 | S28E16 | 0010 | AXX | AXX |
 |
 |
area: 0008 | |
| 13009 | 2022.05.11 2022.05.11 |
N14W74 |
location: N16W76 |
||||||||
| S7561 | 2022.05.11 | N21W45 | |||||||||
| 13010 | 2022.05.11 2022.05.12 |
12 | 54 | 26 | S15E35 | 0190 | DSO | ERI |
 |
 |
location: S16E37 area: 0110 |
| S7564 | 2022.05.12 | S13W40 | |||||||||
| 13011 | 2022.05.12 2022.05.13 |
2 | 9 | 3 | N16E40 | 0010 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: N17E37 area: 0030 |
| S7566 | 2022.05.12 | N35W47 | |||||||||
| S7567 | 2022.05.12 | N19W27 | |||||||||
| S7568 | 2022.05.13 | 3 | 2 | N14E01 | 0007 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| 13015 | 2022.05.13 2022.05.15 |
4 | 20 | 9 | N14E55 | 0060 | DAO | CSI |
 |
 |
location: N13E54 area: 0110 |
| 13014 | 2022.05.13 2022.05.15 |
7 | 16 | 7 | N21E53 | 0100 | CAO | DAI |
 |
 |
|
| S7571 | 2022.05.14 | N01W41 |
 |
SC24 group | |||||||
| S7572 | 2022.05.15 | 1 | S17E84 | 0080 | HSX |
 |
|||||
| S7573 | 2022.05.15 | 1 | N05E24 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
likely SC24 group | ||||
| S7574 | 2022.05.15 | 6 | 2 | N13E78 | 0040 | DRO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 59 | 187 | 87 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 129 | 307 | 167 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 84 | 216 | 116 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 142 | 169 | 134 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2020.10 |
74.6 | 74.2 | 14.6 | 11.9 (+1.4) | 6.13 |
| 2020.11 | 89.9 | 88.0 | 34.5 | 13.6 (+1.7) | 4.77 |
| 2020.12 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 23.1 | 15.3 (+1.7) | 4.72 |
| 2021.01 | 76.0 | 73.6 | 10.4 | 17.3 (+2.0) | 4.39 |
| 2021.02 | 74.3 | 72.4 | 8.2 | 19.0 (+1.7) | 9.50 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.3 (+3.7) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.3 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.0 (+4.7) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.0 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | (50.0 projected, +5.0) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | (55.8 projected, +5.8) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 54.0 | (60.3 projected, +4.5) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 59.7 | (65.2 projected, +4.9) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.5 | (70.7 projected, +5.5) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.1 | (75.9 projected, +5.2) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 126.0 (1) | 39.0 (2A) / 80.6 (2B) / 101.0 (2C) | (82.3 projected, +6.4) | (5.4) | |
| 2022.06 | (88.2 projected, +5.9) | ||||
| 2022.07 | (95.4 projected, +7.2) | ||||
| 2022.08 | (102.1 projected, +6.7) | ||||
| 2022.09 | (107.1 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2022.10 | (110.3 projected, +3.2) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
