Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 2, 2022 at 12:05 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (October 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (November 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (November 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (November 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (November 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on November 1 under the influence of a high speed stream from CH1110. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 401 and 485 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 128.1 - decreasing 32.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 117.77). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 7 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 7.3). Three hour interval K indices: 11332121 (planetary), 10422221 (Boulder), 40322133 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 229) and in 12 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 157) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13131 [N22W34] was quiet and stable.
Region 13133 [N24W18] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13135 [N27E13] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13136 [S08E38] developed slowly and quietly.
New region 13137 [N37E62] rotated into view on October 30 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later. Despite its simple structure and only one spot, the region was the most active on the visible disk. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 06:20, C1.3 @ 13:58 UT.
New region 13138 [S38E07] emerged on October 31 with SWPC numbering the region the next day as the region began to decay slowly.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7960 [S13W26] developed as new flux emerged in the northwestern part of the region.
S7967 [S30E15] was quiet and stable.
S7969 [S14E02] was quiet and stable.
New region S7971 [S24E49] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S7972 [N21E51] emerged with a few spots.
New region S7973 [N26E37] emerged with a few spots.
New region S7974 [N28E73] rotated into view with tiny spots.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 30 - November 1: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1110) rotated across the central meridian on October 28-30. Another recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1111) will become Earth facing on November 1-2.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on November 2 due to effects from CH1110. Quiet conditions are expected on November 3 becoming quiet to active on November 4-5 due to effects from CH1111.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13131 2022.10.23
2022.10.24
3 8 2 N22W33 0160 HSX CSO area: 0230

location: N22W34

13134 2022.10.24
2022.10.28
      N12W44         location: N11W40
13133 2022.10.24
2022.10.25
  15 6 N23W20 0025   BXO

location: N24W18

S7957 2022.10.27       S18W56            
13135 2022.10.27
2022.10.28
5 20 6 N26E12 0160 DSO ESO location: N27E13
S7959 2022.10.27       N27W18            
S7960 2022.10.28   10 3 S13W26 0020   BXO  
S7961 2022.10.28       N12W50            
S7962 2022.10.29       S07W43            
S7963 2022.10.29       S03E30            
S7964 2022.10.29    

 

  N11W48            
13136 2022.10.30
2022.10.31
3 12 6 S08E37 0010 DSO DAO area: 0060

location: S08E38

S7967 2022.10.30   8   S30E15 0010   BXO  
13137 2022.10.30
2022.11.01
1 1 1 N37E64 0020 HSX HAX area: 0030

location: N37E62

S7969 2022.10.31   6 3 S14E02 0015   CRO  
13138 2022.10.31
2022.11.01
1 1 1 S39E08 0010 DSO AXX location: S38E07

area: 0003

S7971 2022.11.01   1 1 S24E49 0002   AXX    
S7972 2022.11.01   5 3 N21E51 0012   CRO    
S7973 2022.11.01   10 4 N26E37 0015   BXO    
S7974 2022.11.01   2 1 N28E73 0006   HRX    
Total spot count: 13 99 37  
Sunspot number: 63 229 157  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 38 128 66  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 69 126 126  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (78.5 projected, +5.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (84.4 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (91.6 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (98.2 projected, +6.6) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (103.1 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (106.3 projected, +3.2) 11.4
2022.11 128.1 (1)   2.1 (2A) / 63 (2B) / 102.7 (2C) (109.1 projected, +2.8) (7.3)
2022.12       (113.9 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (119.9 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (124.9 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (128.0 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (133.4 projected, +5.4)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.