Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 8, 2022 at 08:10 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (November 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (November 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (November 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (November 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (November 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on November 7. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 362 and 424 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels. A solar wind transient (embedded in the solar wind as there was no significant change in solar wind speed, solar wind temperature was low as well) caused a geomagnetic disturbance after 08 UT on November 7.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 134.6 - decreasing 15.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 118.36). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 21 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 21.0). Three hour interval K indices: 11234552 (planetary), 11235431 (Boulder), 01124563 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 13 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 231) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 154) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13135 [N27W66] was quiet and stable.
Region 13137 [N38W08] was quiet and stable.
Region 13139 [N28W03] was quiet and stable.
Region 13140 [N26E28] was quiet and stable.
Region 13141 [N14E39] became more complex as new small spots formed. A magnetic delta might be forming in the southern central part of the region. A major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.1 @ 04:02, C1.4 @ 06:55 UT
Region 13142 [N27E09] was quiet and stable.
New region 13143 [S15E58] rotated into view on November 6 and was numbered the next day by SWPC.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7973 [N29W35] was quiet and stable.
S7986 [S25E07] developed slowly and quietly.
S7988 [N16E52] was quiet and stable.
New region S7990 [N15W12] emerged with a tiny spot before noon and decayed slowly late in the day.
New region S7991 [S16W32] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7992 [S33E01] was observed with a tiny spot in an old plage area.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C3.1 15:15   13141 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 5-7: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A relatively small southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1112) rotated across the central meridian on November 6-7, it seems that CH1112 is slowly closing.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to active conditions are likely on November 8-9. Quiet to unsettled conditions are possible on November 10-11 due to effects from CH1112.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13135 2022.10.27
2022.10.28
1 1 1 N26W67 0080 HSX HSX  
S7963 2022.10.29       S03W48            
13136 2022.10.30
2022.10.31
      S08W48         location: S07W43
S7967 2022.10.30       S29W57            
13137 2022.10.30
2022.11.01
1 3 1 N37W10 0010 AXX CRO location: N38W08
13138 2022.10.31
2022.11.01
      S39W70            
S7971 2022.11.01       S26W29            
S7972 2022.11.01       N21W27            
S7973 2022.11.01   2   N29W35 0002   AXX  
13139 2022.11.01
2022.11.03
  2 2 N28W04 0005   BXO location: N28W03
13140 2022.11.03
2022.11.04
1 8 6 N26E26 0130 HSX CSO area: 0170

location: N26E28

13142 2022.11.03
2022.11.06
8 28 9 N26E08 0020 CRO CRI area: 0050

location: N27E09

S7978 2022.11.03       N36W17            
13141 2022.11.03
2022.11.04
7 37 24 N14E39 0600 EKO EKI beta-gamma

area: 0870

S7981 2022.11.03       S16W23            
S7982 2022.11.04       N19W08            
S7983 2022.11.04       S07W31            
S7984 2022.11.04       N08W29            
S7985 2022.11.04       N20W23          
S7986 2022.11.05   8 4 S25E07 0025   CRO  
S7987 2022.11.05       S06W23            
S7988 2022.11.05   2 1 N16E52 0006   AXX  
13143 2022.11.06
2022.11.07
2 5 4 S15E58 0020 CRO CRO  
S7990 2022.11.07   1   N15W12 0002   AXX    
S7991 2022.11.07   3 2 S16W32 0007   BXO    
S7992 2022.11.07   1   S33E01 0002   AXX    
Total spot count: 20 101 54  
Sunspot number: 80 231 154  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 46 133 86  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 88 127 123  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (78.5 projected, +5.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (84.4 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (91.6 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (98.2 projected, +6.6) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (103.1 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (106.3 projected, +3.2) 11.4
2022.11 128.2 (1)   16.6 (2A) / 71.1 (2B) / 95.1 (2C) (109.1 projected, +2.8) (13.4)
2022.12       (113.9 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (119.9 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (124.9 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (128.0 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (133.4 projected, +5.4)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.