Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 20, 2022 at 13:10 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (November 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (November 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (November 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (November 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (November 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 19. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 345 and 400 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 115.1 - increasing 6.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 119.94). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.9). Three hour interval K indices: 20111011 (planetary), 21121211 (Boulder), 30110012 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 230) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 140) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13147 [S11E31] was quiet and stable.
Region 13148 [S32E21] was active early in the day, then settled down. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 03:01 UT
Region 13149 [N23E38] developed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13150 [N21W54] developed further producing C flares and one M class event. Another M class flare is possible. The M1.6 flare just after noon was associated with an EIT wave over most of the visible western hemisphere and a partial halo CME. C1 flares: C1.2 @ 07:56, C1.1 @ 08:33, C1.2 @ 12:39, C1.2 @ 17:11 UT.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8007 [N29W10] was quiet and stable.
S8012 [S19E08] was quiet and stable.
S8014 [S07E19] was quiet and stable.
S8015 [S26E22] was quiet and stable.
S8017 [N17W34] was quiet and stable.
New region S8020 [N20E11] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8021 [N32E28] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8022 [S18W29] emerged with a tiny spot.

A C1.4 flare was recorded at 01:18 UT from a source behind the northwest limb. AR S8006 was the source of a C1.1 @ 14:11 UT

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.7 01:37   13148 GOES16  
C8.3 06:23 N21W42 13150 GOES16  
M1.6 12:56   13150 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 17-18: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
November 19: The M1 flare in AR 13150 was associated with a partial halo CME. It is uncertain if Earth will be in the path of components from this CME, any effects are likely on November 22 and 23.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A large, well defined recurrent coronal hole (CH1113) in the southern hemisphere was Earth facing on November 16-19, however, CH1113 may be too far to the south to cause a geomagnetic disturbance. A recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1114) could rotate across the central meridian on November 21.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is very good. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on November 20-22 with a chance of active intervals should a high speed stream from CH1113 reach Earth.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13146 2022.11.12
2022.11.13
      N32W49          

location: N32W45

S8001 2022.11.12       S28W55            
S8006 2022.11.14       S12W40          
S8007 2022.11.15   3   N29W10 0004   BXO  
13148 2022.11.15
2022.11.16
4 16 7 S32E21 0040 DRO DRI  
13147 2022.11.15
2022.11.16
4 21 11 S11E31 0230 DAO CHO area: 0290
13149 2022.11.16
2022.11.17
5 21 12 N23E38 0030 CRO DRI area: 0070
S8012 2022.11.17   4 1 S19E08 0007   BXO  
S8014 2022.11.17   4 1 S07E19 0006   BXO  
S8015 2022.11.17   9 2 S26E22 0015   BXO  
13150 2022.11.18
2022.11.18
6 19 11 N22W55 0140 DSO DAI

location: N21W54

S8017 2022.11.18   5 4 N17W34 0016   BXO  
S8018 2022.11.18       S25W05          
S8019 2022.11.18       S17W22          
S8020 2022.11.19   5   N20E11 0006   BXO    
S8021 2022.11.19   2   N32E28 0002   BXO    
S8022 2022.11.19   1 1 S18W29 0003   AXX    
Total spot count: 19 110 50  
Sunspot number: 59 230 140  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 35 131 71  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 65 126 112  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (78.5 projected, +5.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (84.4 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (91.6 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (98.2 projected, +6.6) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (103.1 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (106.3 projected, +3.2) 11.16
2022.11 130.4 (1)   44.9 (2A) / 71.0 (2B) / 92.9 (2C) (109.1 projected, +2.8) (8.0)
2022.12       (113.9 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (119.9 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (124.9 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (128.0 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (133.4 projected, +5.4)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.