Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on November 27, 2022 at 13:00 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (November 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (November 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (November 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (November 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (November 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on November 26 due to high speed streams from CH1114 and CH1115 (the latter began to dominate near noon). Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 474 and 693 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to minor storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 107.1 - decreasing 23.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 120.49). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 16 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 16.5). Three hour interval K indices: 43323333 (planetary), 33323432 (Boulder), 43334345 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B3 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 155) and in 7 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 103) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13147 [S11W63] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13148 [S33W70] was quiet and stable.
Region 13149 [N22W57] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13151 [S16W43] developed as new flux emerged. C flares are possible.
Region 13152 [N28E23] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8036 [S14W02] was quiet and stable.
S8038 [N19W01] was quiet and stable.
New region S8040 [S20W40] emerged with tiny spots before noon, then decayed slowly.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
           

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 24-26: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1115) was Earth facing on November 23-24, while a recurrent northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1116) rotated into a potentially geoeffective position on November 25-26. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1117) will likely become Earth facing on November 28-29.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are likely on November 27-29 due to high speed streams from CH1115 and CH1116.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13148 2022.11.15
2022.11.16
  3 2 S33W75 0008   BXO location: S33W70
13147 2022.11.15
2022.11.16
2 7 3 S11W63 0070 HSX CSO  
13149 2022.11.16
2022.11.17
2 8 5 N22W57 0080 CSO CAO  
S8015 2022.11.17       S27W57            
13151 2022.11.21
2022.11.21
6 17 7 S16W47 0080 CAO DRI

location: S16W43

13152 2022.11.22
2022.11.23
10 31 13 N27E23 0120 CAO DRI location: N28E23
S8027 2022.11.22       S11W35            
S8029 2022.11.23       N35W32            
S8030 2022.11.24       S01E08            
S8031 2022.11.24       N17W13            
S8032 2022.11.24       S20W43            
S8033 2022.11.24       S08E38            
S8034 2022.11.24       S11W41            
S8035 2022.11.25       N27W43 0004        
S8036 2022.11.25   2   S14W02 0002   AXX  
S8037 2022.11.25       S01W19          
S8038 2022.11.25   4 2 N19W01 0012   AXX  
S8039 2022.11.25       N17W06          
S8040 2022.11.26   3 1 S20W40 0005   AXX  
Total spot count: 20 75 33  
Sunspot number: 60 155 103  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 40 91 49  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 66 85 82  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (78.5 projected, +5.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (84.4 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (91.6 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (98.2 projected, +6.6) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (103.1 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (106.3 projected, +3.2) 11.16
2022.11 125.7 (1)   60.3 (2A) / 69.5 (2B) / 92.8 (2C) (109.1 projected, +2.8) (7.9)
2022.12       (113.9 projected, +4.8)  
2023.01       (119.9 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (124.9 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (128.0 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (133.4 projected, +5.4)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.