Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on December 1, 2022 at 07:30 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (November 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (December 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (December 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (December 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (December 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to minor storm on November 30 due to high speed streams from CH1116 and CH1117 (the transition to CH1117 was likely near 14h UT at DSCOVR). Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 603 and 783 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to severe storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 111.0 - decreasing 14.3 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 120.67). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 24 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 24.3). Three hour interval K indices: 33354353 (planetary), 33344343 (Boulder), 54434375 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 7 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 120) and in 5 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 68) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13152 [N28W26] was mostly quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S8043 [N25E07] was quiet and stable.
S8046 [S38E07] was quiet and stable
New region S8048 [N26W17] emerged with a spots to the east of AR 13152.
New region S8049 [N26E60] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S8050 [S16E83] rotated into view as a compact region with M class flare potential. C1 flares: C1.4 @ 04:40, C1.5 @ 11:22, C1.1 @ 14:10, C1.8 @ 18:21, C1.0 @ 20:26 UT
New region S8051 [N13E14] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

AR 13051 rotated out of view and produced several C flares while at and just behind the southwest limb. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 05:42, C1.6 @ 11:13 UT

A C1.2 flare was recorded at 12:31 UT from an unnumbered region just west of CH1116.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.1 06:23   13151 GOES16  
C2.6 14:48   S8050 GOES16  
C3.0 16:17   13151 GOES16  
C2.8 17:09 near NW limb   GOES16 source: unnumbered region just west of CH1116
C2.6 18:30   13151 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 28-30: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1117) was Earth facing on November 28-29. A recurrent trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1118) will likely rotate across the central meridian on December 4.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to minor storm conditions are likely on December 1-2 due to a high speed stream from CH1117. Quiet to unsettled is likely on December 3 becoming quiet on December 4-5.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13152 2022.11.22
2022.11.23
2 21 8 N27W26 0010 BXO CRO location: N28W26

area: 0040

S8030 2022.11.24       S01W44            
S8033 2022.11.24       S08W14            
S8036 2022.11.25       S22W48          
S8038 2022.11.25       N22W56            
S8039 2022.11.25       N17W58            
S8042 2022.11.27       S19W21            
S8043 2022.11.27   5   N25E07 0010   BXO  
S8044 2022.11.27       N18E26          
S8045 2022.11.28       S20W09            
S8046 2022.11.29   8 3 S38E07 0025   CRO  
S8047 2022.11.29       S27W59          
S8048 2022.11.30   6 3 N26W17 0017   CRO    
S8049 2022.11.30   2   N26E60 0004   BXO    
S8050 2022.11.30   5 3 S16E83 0250   DAC    
S8051 2022.11.30   3 1 N13E14 0007   BXO    
Total spot count: 2 50 18  
Sunspot number: 12 120 68  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 2 64 32  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 13 66 54  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 73.1 (+4.2) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 77.3 (+4.2) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (80.7 projected, +3.6) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (85.7 projected, +5.0) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (91.4 projected, +5.7) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (96.3 projected, +4.9) 12.18
2022.10 133.5 132.7 95.4 (99.5 projected, +3.2) 11.16
2022.11 123.4 120.7 77.6 (102.3 projected, +2.8) 9.6
2022.12 (1)   (2A/2B) / 88.4 (2C) (107.1 projected, +4.8) ()
2023.01       (113.1 projected, +6.0)  
2023.02       (118.1 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (121.2 projected, +3.1)  
2023.04       (126.6 projected, +5.4)  
2023.05       (132.4 projected, +5.8)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.