The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm on October 3 under the influence of effects from CH1104. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 469 and 650 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to severe storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 155.1 - increasing 26.9 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 114.44). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 24 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 24.5). Three hour interval K indices: 43314463 (planetary), 43315553 (Boulder), 53315474 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 297) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 188) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13110 [N18W65] decayed quickly during
the latter half of the day. A small
magnetic delta remains at the center of the region and further M class flares are
possible. The negative polarity spots are slowly rotating westward compared
to the positive polarity spots.
Region 13111 [N27W07] was quiet and stable.
Region 13112 [N19E38] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC include
the spots from AR S7901 in this region.
Region 13113 [N16W56] decayed in the trailing spot section while most
of the leader spots merged into largest penumbra.
Region 13114 [S33E01] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13115 [S18E02] emerged on October 1
and was numbered by SPWC 2 days later. The region developed quickly on
October 3 and has minor polarity intermixing.
New region 13116 [N30E55] rotated into view on October 1 and received
its NOAA number 2 days later as slow development continued.
New region 13117 [S11E18] emerged on October 2 with SWPC numbering
the region the next day.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7901 [N22E47] decayed in the trailing spot
section with some penumbrae splitting into smaller parts. The leading spot
section is
still magnetically complex with multiple magnetic deltas.
A major flare is possible.
S7902 [N28E44] was quiet and stable.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C2.8 | 00:42 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| M2.6 | 02:33 | N23E64 | S7901 | GOES16 | LDE |
| C6.3 | 03:51 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 05:52 | 13110 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 06:40 | 13110 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.5 | 07:23 | 13110 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 08:14 | N24E60 | S7901 | GOES16 | |
| C3.2 | 08:37 | 13110 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.1 | 09:20 | 13110 | GOES16 | ||
| M4.2/2N | 10:11 | 13110 | GOES16 | LDE | |
| M1.1 | 10:53 | 13110 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.5 | 11:11 | 13110 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.3 | 12:24 | N18W59 | 13110 | GOES16 | |
| C2.9 | 13:18 | N18W60 | 13110 | GOES16 | |
| C3.7 | 14:22 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.1 | 14:51 | 13110 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.6/1N | 15:30 | N24E54 | S7901 | GOES16 | |
| C3.1 | 16:07 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.2 | 17:50 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.4 | 18:39 | 13110 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.0 | 19:46 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 20:28 | 13110 | GOES16 | LDE | |
| M1.7 | 21:22 | S7901 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.2 | 22:01 | | | S7901 | GOES16 | LDE |
| C2.8 | 23:40 | S7901 | GOES16 |
October 1: A filament eruption near AR 13113 peaked near 13h UT and
was associated with a partial halo CME. This CME could reach
Earth on October 4.
October 2: A faint full halo CME was observed after the M8 flare in
AR 13110 early in the day. The CME could reach Earth early on October 4.
October 3: A partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption
early in the day to the east and south of AR 13115. The eruption began a few
minutes after midnight and the CME was visible after 01h UT in LASCO
imagery. While the core of the CME is not headed towards Earth, some of the
ejecta could reach Earth on October 5.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent coronal holes (CH1104) was Earth facing on September 29 - October 1.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to major conditions are likely on October 4-6, first due to effects from CH1104, then due to CME effects.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13110 | 2022.09.22 2022.09.23 |
10 | 21 | 11 | N18W65 | 0180 | DAI | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-delta |
| 13111 | 2022.09.26 2022.09.27 |
1 | 10 | 1 | N28W08 | 0070 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: N27W07 |
| S7893 | 2022.09.28 | S15W48 | |||||||||
| S7894 | 2022.09.29 | N12W24 | |||||||||
| 13113 | 2022.09.29 2022.09.30 |
10 | 23 | 10 | N16W52 | 0100 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
area: 0190 |
| S7897 | 2022.09.29 | N31W26 | |||||||||
| 13114 | 2022.09.30 2022.10.01 |
3 | S34W02 | 0003 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S33E02 | |||
| 13112 | 2022.09.30 2022.09.30 |
36 | 17 | 8 | N23E46 | 0710 | FKC | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0200 location: N19E38 SWPC includes AR S7901 in this region |
| S7900 | 2022.09.30 | S26W50 | |||||||||
| S7901 | 2022.09.30 | 71 | 37 | N22E47 | 0550 | FKC |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta | ||
| S7902 | 2022.09.30 | 3 | 2 | N28E44 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S7903 | 2022.09.30 | S12W04 | |||||||||
| 13115 | 2022.10.01 2022.10.03 |
9 | 25 | 14 | S18E03 | 0060 | DAO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0240 |
| 13116 | 2022.10.01 2022.10.03 |
6 | 13 | 9 | N30E54 | 0010 | BXO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0050 |
| 13117 | 2022.10.02 2022.10.03 |
2 | 11 | 6 | S11E20 | 0020 | CRO | DRO |
 |
 |
location: S11E18 area: 0030 |
| S7907 | 2022.10.02 | S25W50 |
 |
||||||||
| S7908 | 2022.10.03 | N12W08 |
 |
||||||||
| Total spot count: | 74 | 197 | 98 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 144 | 297 | 188 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 107 | 238 | 139 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 158 | 163 | 150 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.8 (+4.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.9 (+4.1) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | (74.2 projected, +5.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (80.6 projected, +6.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | (86.5 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (93.7 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 75.4 | (100.2 projected, +6.5) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.3 | (105.2 projected, +5.0) | 12.2 |
| 2022.10 | 152.3 (1) | 11.2 (2A) / 115.3 (2B) / 114.7 (2C) | (108.3 projected, +3.1) | (12.8) | |
| 2022.11 | (111.2 projected, +2.9) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (115.9 projected, +4.7) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (122.0 projected, +6.1) | ||||
| 2023.02 | (127.0 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (130.0 projected, +3.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
