Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on October 6, 2022 at 03:55 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (October 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (October 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (October 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (October 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (October 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on October 5 under the influence of effects from CH1104 until approximately 16h UT. Another disturbance arrived just before 16h UT at DSCOVR, the most likely source is the October 3 CME. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 493 and 596 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 161.0 - increasing 34.4 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 114.84). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.0). Three hour interval K indices: 23322333 (planetary), 23423332 (Boulder), 43332366 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 12 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 315) and in 10 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 212) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13111 [N27W33] was quiet and stable.
Region 13112 [N20E11] was mostly quiet and stable. Note that SWPC include the spots from AR S7901 in this region.
Region 13113 [N17W84] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13115 [S18W23] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13116 [N30E28] developed gaining spots and area. C flares are possible. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 23:51 UT
Region 13117 [S11W10] was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7901 [N22E22] produced several C flares, none of which were impressive. The leading spot section is still magnetically complex with multiple magnetic deltas. A major flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.3 @ 04:04, C1.3 @ 10:40, C1.6 @ 12:52, C1.9 @ 13:14, C1.6 @ 14:32, C1.6 @ 16:31, C1.6 @ 17:11 UT
S7902 [N28E21] reemerged with several spots.
New region S7909 [N13E02] emerged before noon with a couple of spots, then decayed slowly.
New region S7910 [N09E76] rotated into view and produced a C flare.
New region S7911 [S15W51] emerged with tiny spots.
New region S7912 [N17E53] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C5.6 02:07 N21E35 S7901 GOES16  
C3.8 06:19 N22E38 S7901 GOES16  
C2.1 08:16 N22E29 S7901 GOES16  
C3.5 08:58 N20W90 13113 GOES16  
C2.7 11:01   S7901 GOES16  
C2.2 12:03 N26E33 S7901 GOES16  
C2.5 18:37   S7901 GOES16  
C2.8 19:28   S7901 GOES16  
C2.7 20:19   S7910 GOES16  
C2.8 21:19 N20W90 13113 GOES16 LDE

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 3: A partial halo CME was observed after a filament eruption early in the day to the east and south of AR 13115. The eruption began a few minutes after midnight and the CME was visible after 01h UT in LASCO imagery. While the core of the CME is not headed towards Earth, some of the ejecta could reach Earth on October 5 or 6.
October 4-5: No obvious CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent coronal hole (CH1104) was Earth facing on September 29 - October 1. A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1105) was Earth facing on October 5.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to active conditions are expected on October 6 due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on October 7 becoming quiet to active on October 8-9 due to effects from CH1105.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13110 2022.09.22
2022.09.23
2     N21W93 0060 CSO     rotated out of view
13111 2022.09.26
2022.09.27
1 7 1 N28W33 0060 HSX CSO

location: N27W33

S7894 2022.09.29       N12W50            
13113 2022.09.29
2022.09.30
3 5 3 N16W80 0090 CSO DSO

area: 0170

S7897 2022.09.29       N31W52            
13114 2022.09.30
2022.10.01
      S34W30         location: S32W23
13112 2022.09.30
2022.09.30
55 35 23 N22E21 0750 FKC DAO

area: 0200

location: N20E11

SWPC includes AR S7901 in this region

S7901 2022.09.30   67 41 N22E22 0700   FKC beta-gamma-delta
S7902 2022.09.30   8 5 N28E21 0020   BXO    
S7903 2022.09.30       S12W30            
13115 2022.10.01
2022.10.03
8 21 15 S18W24 0180 DAO DAI

 

13116 2022.10.01
2022.10.03
9 33 15 N29E28 0060 DAI DAI area: 0150
13117 2022.10.02
2022.10.03
3 8 5 S12W10 0010 BXO CRO location: S11W10

area: 0025

S7908 2022.10.03       N12W34            
S7909 2022.10.05   1   N13E02 0002   AXX    
S7910 2022.10.05   3 1 N09E76 0015   CRO    
S7911 2022.10.05   5 3 S15W51 0015   BXO    
S7912 2022.10.05   2   N17E53 0004   BXO    
Total spot count: 81 195 112  
Sunspot number: 151 315 212  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 116 236 153  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 166 173 170  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 (74.2 projected, +5.3) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (80.6 projected, +6.4) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (86.5 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (93.7 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (100.2 projected, +6.5) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (105.2 projected, +5.0) 12.2
2022.10 154.1 (1)   21.0 (2A) / 130.0 (2B) / 116.2 (2C) (108.3 projected, +3.1) (13.8)
2022.11       (111.2 projected, +2.9)  
2022.12       (115.9 projected, +4.7)  
2023.01       (122.0 projected, +6.1)  
2023.02       (127.0 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (130.0 projected, +3.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.