Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on October 10, 2022 at 05:50 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (October 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (October 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (October 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (October 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (October 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active on October 9 under the influence of effects from CH1105. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 499 and 670 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded unsettled to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 160.5 - increasing 10.1 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 115.64). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 24 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 24.1). Three hour interval K indices: 44334444 (planetary), 44443333 (Boulder), 56344666 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class C1 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 8 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 251) and in 8 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 170) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13111 [N28W84] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13112 [N19W39] was quiet and stable. Note that SWPC originally included the spots from AR S7901 in this region. SWPC split this region off from what they now consider to be AR 13112 on October 7 and named the group AR 13120.
Region 13116 [N29W28] decayed significantly in the trailing spot section while slow development was observed in the leading spot section.
Region 13118 [N09E22] developed with a weak magnetic delta forming.
Region 13119 [N29E09] developed further and has minor polarity intermixing. A minor M class flare is possible. C1 flares: C1.7 @ 06:32 UT

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7901 [N23W29] decayed significantly in the leading spot section while some development was seen in the intermediate and trailing spot sections. The magnetic delta in the leading spot section weakened. There is still a chance of M class flares. C1 flares: C1.6 @ 10:24, C1.3 @ 12:00, C1.3 @ 13:04, C1.4 @ 17:01 UT
S7912 [N18W00] was quiet and stable.
New region S7917 [S19E24] was observed with tiny spots in an old plage area.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C2.1 02:25 N23W11 S7901 GOES16  
C3.3 08:13   S7901 GOES16  
C2.9 08:25   S7901 GOES16  
C2.0 09:21 N22W23 S7901 GOES16  
C2.8 10:34   S7901 GOES16  
C2.6 10:43   S7901 GOES16  
C2.3 11:02   S7901 GOES16  
C3.9 14:27   S7901 GOES16  
C2.0 18:47   S7901 GOES16  
C3.6 21:57 N28E08 13119 GOES16  
C4.1 22:16   13119 GOES16  
C3.6 23:57   S7901 GOES16  

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 7-9: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1105) was Earth facing on October 5.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettøed conditions are expected on October 10 due to effects from CH1105 becoming quiet on October 11-12.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13111 2022.09.26
2022.09.27
1 1 1 N28W86 0010 AXX AXX

location: N28W84

13114 2022.09.30
2022.10.01
      S34W86           location: S32W75
13112

(13120)

2022.09.30
2022.09.30
14 11 5 N22W28 0400 FKI BXO

area: 0020

location: N19W39

Keeping the original SWPC number for data integrity

SWPC has split this off as AR 13120

S7901 2022.09.30   47 29 N23W29 0670   FKC beta-gamma-delta

SWPC has this as AR 13112

S7902 2022.09.30       N27W32          
13115 2022.10.01
2022.10.03
1     S18W79 0010 AXX     spotless
13116 2022.10.01
2022.10.03
10 35 17 N30W25 0140 EAI EAI beta-gamma

location: N29W28

area: 0200

13117 2022.10.02
2022.10.03
      S11W67           location: S10W62
S7909 2022.10.05       N13W50            
13118 2022.10.05
2022.10.06
4 15 8 N08E20 0030 DRO DRI beta-delta

area: 0060

location: N09E22

S7912 2022.10.05   6 2 N18W00 0010   BXO  
13119 2022.10.06
2022.10.07
12 47 26 N28E07 0140 DAI DAI area: 0260

location: N29E09

S7915 2022.10.07       N31E26            
13120 2022.10.07 2     N18W40 0010 AXX       see AR 13112
S7916 2022.10.09       N37E51          
S7917 2022.10.09   9 2 S19E24 0015   BXO    
Total spot count: 44 171 90  
Sunspot number: 114 251 170  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 67 194 113  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 125 138 136  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 (74.2 projected, +5.3) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (80.6 projected, +6.4) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (86.5 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (93.7 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (100.2 projected, +6.5) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (105.2 projected, +5.0) 12.18
2022.10 155.9 (1)   38.3 (2A) / 131.8 (2B) / 120.3 (2C) (108.3 projected, +3.1) (15.2)
2022.11       (111.2 projected, +2.9)  
2022.12       (115.9 projected, +4.7)  
2023.01       (122.0 projected, +6.1)  
2023.02       (127.0 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (130.0 projected, +3.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.