Solar Terrestrial Activity Report

Activity chart

Last major update issued on October 16, 2022 at 08:15 UT.

Charts (* = updated daily) Data and archive
  Solar wind (*) Solar and geomagnetic data - last month (*)
  Electron fluence (*) Archived daily reports and monthly data since 2003.01 (October 6, 2022)
Solar cycle Solar cycles 23-25 (October 1, 2022) Historical solar and geomagnetic data charts 1954-2006 (April 5, 2007)
  Cycle 24-25 progress (October 1, 2022) Noon SDO sunspot count 1K image / 4K (*)
  Solar cycles 1-24 (July 1, 2020) POES auroral activity level [October 2009 - December 2012]
  Comparison of cycles 21-25 (October 1, 2022) 3rd SSN Workshop, Tucson, 2013
  Comparison of cycles 12-14, 16, 24-25 (October 1, 2022) 4th SSN Workshop, Locarno, 2014
  Solar polar fields vs. solar cycles (August 21, 2022) Cycle 25 spots (final update December 25, 2019)
  Solar cycles 24-25 transition using 365d smoothing Research: Solar Cycle 25 Started on November 17, 2019 with 365 Days Smoothing

Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm on October 15 under the influence of coronal hole effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 434 and 642 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.

Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 115.1 - decreasing 21.0 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 116.51). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 16 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 15.9). Three hour interval K indices: 33232342 (planetary), 52232332 (Boulder), 43222364 (Andenes).

The background x-ray flux is at the class B5 level (GOES 16).

At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 10 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 181) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 123) SDO/HMI images.

Region 13119 [N28W64] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13121 [N23E29] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region 13122 [N24W27] emerged on October 13 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later as slow development continued.
New region 13123 [N27W52] emerged on October 13 and was numbered by SWPC 2 days later.

Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted differently) by SWPC:
S7918 [S28E13] was quiet and stable.
S7921 [S23E17] was quiet and stable.
S7922 [S14E17] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7927 [N36W25] reemerged with tiny spots.
S7930 [S24E29] was quiet and stable.
S7932 [S34W27] developed slowly and quietly.

C2+ flares:

Magnitude Peak time (UT) Location Source Recorded by Comment
C6.1 14:32 behind NW limb S7901 GOES16 LDE

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

October 13-15: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago: 28 days ago 27 days ago 26 days ago]

A recurrent and poorly defined trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1106) will rotate across the central meridian on October 15.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.

Forecast

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected on October 16 becoming quiet on October 17-18. Quiet to active aconditions are possible on October 19-20 due to effects from CH1106.

Coronal holes (1) Coronal mass ejection (2) M and X class flares (3)
     

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.

Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.

Active solar regions


(Click on image for 2K resolution). 4K resolution. Compare to the previous day's image.
0.5K image

When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.

Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.

Active region SWPC date numbered
STAR detected
Spot count Location at midnight Area Classification SDO / HMI 4K continuum
image with magnetic polarity overlays
Comment
SWPC/
USAF
Magnetic
(SDO)
SWPC STAR Current Previous
2K 1K
13118 2022.10.05
2022.10.06
      N09W61          

location: N08W57

13119 2022.10.06
2022.10.07
3 4 1 N29W68 0030 CSO CAO

location: N28W64

S7915 2022.10.07       N31W52            
S7917 2022.10.09       S15W54            
S7918 2022.10.10   7 4 S29E13 0015   BXO  
13121 2022.10.11
2022.10.13
1 4   N24E31 0010 AXX BXO

location: N23E29

S7921 2022.10.11   5 1 S23E17 0007   BXO  
S7922 2022.10.11   8 1 S14E17 0012   BXO    
S7923 2022.10.12       N15W07            
S7924 2022.10.12       S20W20            
S7925 2022.10.12       S27W42            
S7926 2022.10.13       S12W51          
S7927 2022.10.13   2 1 N36W25 0005   BXO    
13123 2022.10.13
2022.10.15
2 12 5 N27W54 0010 BXO BXO area: 0020
13122 2022.10.13
2022.10.15
4 12 7 N25W29 0030 CRO DRI area: 0050
S7930 2022.10.13   9 2 S24E29 0015   BXO  
S7931 2022.10.14       S13W08          
S7932 2022.10.14   18 11 S34W27 0030   DRI area: 0050
S7933 2022.10.14       S13W08          
Total spot count: 10 81 33  
Sunspot number: 50 181 123  (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions)
Weighted SN: 18 92 42  (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10)
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): 55 100 98  

Monthly solar cycle data

Month Average solar flux International sunspot number
(WDC-SILSO)
Smoothed sunspot number (4) Average ap
(3)
Measured 1 AU
2014.02 170.3
(cycle peak)
166.3 146.1 (SC24 peak) 110.5 10.70
2014.04 143.9 144.8 112.5 116.4 (solar max) 7.88
2017.09 91.3 92.3 43.6 18.2 (-1.3) 18.22
(cycle peak)
2019.11 70.2 68.7 0.5 2.0 (-0.6)
(Solar minimum using 365d smoothing:
November 17, 2019)
4.19
2019.12 70.8 68.6 1.6 1.8 (-0.2)
(ISN 13 months smoothed
solar minimum)
3.22
2021.03 76.0 75.2 17.2 21.7 (+2.7) 10.17
2021.04 75.9 76.4 24.5 24.8 (+3.1) 8.40
2021.05 75.3 77.1 21.2 25.8 (+1.0) 6.50
2021.06 79.4 81.8 25.0 27.6 (+1.8) 5.52
2021.07 81.0 83.6 34.3 31.4 (+3.8) 5.51
2021.08 77.7 79.7 22.0 35.4 (+4.0) 6.19
2021.09 87.0 88.2 51.3 40.2 (+4.8) 6.33
2021.10 88.9 88.3 37.4 45.2 (+5.0) 7.38
2021.11 86.2 84.4 34.8 50.8 (+5.6) 9.83
2021.12 103.0 99.8 67.5 55.9 (+5.1) 6.40
2022.01 103.8 100.5 55.3 60.1 (+4.2) 8.92
2022.02 109.1 106.5 60.9 64.8 (+4.7) 10.46
2022.03 117.0 115.8 78.6 68.9 (+4.1) 10.20
2022.04 130.8 131.7 84.0 (74.2 projected, +5.3) 11.79
2022.05 133.8 136.8 96.5 (80.6 projected, +6.4) 7.48
2022.06 116.1 119.8 70.3 (86.5 projected, +5.9) 8.20
2022.07 125.4 129.5 91.4 (93.7 projected, +7.2) 9.51
2022.08 114.2 117.1 75.4 (100.2 projected, +6.5) 10.92
2022.09 135.1 136.5 96.3 (105.2 projected, +5.0) 12.18
2022.10 148.2 (1)   52.0 (2A) / 107.5 (2B) / 114.6 (2C) (108.3 projected, +3.1) (12.8)
2022.11       (111.2 projected, +2.9)  
2022.12       (115.9 projected, +4.7)  
2023.01       (122.0 projected, +6.1)  
2023.02       (127.0 projected, +5.0)  
2023.03       (130.0 projected, +3.0)  
2023.11       (142.5 projected max SC25)  

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red are based on the definitive international GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.

Solar cycles 24-25

Smoothed SF and sunspot numbers

 

This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.

SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.