The geomagnetic field was quiet to active on October 16 under the influence of coronal hole effects. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 542 and 670 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to major storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 119.2 - decreasing 8.7 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 116.62). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 14 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 14.1). Three hour interval K indices: 32234324 (planetary), 21234323 (Boulder), 52234336 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class B6 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 9 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 178) and in 9 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 132) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13119 [N29W78] decayed slowly and
quietly.
Region 13121 [N23E14] developed slowly late in the day.
Region 13122 [N24W40] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13123 [N27W66] developed slowly producing a few low level C
flares. C1 flares: C1.5 @ 14:36, C1.8 @ 16:06 UT
New region 13124 [S35W40] emerged on October 14 and was observed by
SWPC 2 days later. The region developed quickly on October 16 and has minor
polarity intermixing.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S7918 [S29W03] was quiet and stable.
S7921 [S23E07] was quiet and stable.
S7930 [S25E13] was quiet and stable.
New region
S7934 [S10E57] emerged with tiny spots.
A long duration C1.2 event peaking at 12:52 UT, the source was AR S7901 behind the northwest limb. The same region produced a C1.6 flare at 19:24 UT.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
October 14-16: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A recurrent and poorly defined trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1106) closed on October 16 as it was rotating across the central meridian. A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1107) will likely be Earth facing on October 21-22.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected on October 17 becoming quiet on October 18-19. Quiet to unsettled conditions are possible on October 20 due to effects from CH1106.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13118 | 2022.10.05 2022.10.06 |
N09W75 |
location: N08W70 |
||||||||
| 13119 | 2022.10.06 2022.10.07 |
3 | 7 | 4 | N29W82 | 0030 | CSO | CRO |
 |
 |
location: N29W78 |
| S7918 | 2022.10.10 | 6 | 1 | S29W03 | 0010 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| 13121 | 2022.10.11 2022.10.13 |
3 | 2 | N24E17 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N24E14 |
||
| S7921 | 2022.10.11 | 4 | 2 | S23E07 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S7922 | 2022.10.11 | S14E04 |
 |
||||||||
| S7923 | 2022.10.12 | N15W20 | |||||||||
| S7924 | 2022.10.12 | S20W33 | |||||||||
| S7925 | 2022.10.12 | S27W55 | |||||||||
| S7927 | 2022.10.13 | N36W38 |
 |
||||||||
| 13123 | 2022.10.13 2022.10.15 |
6 | 16 | 8 | N27W66 | 0030 | CAO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0060 |
| 13122 | 2022.10.13 2022.10.15 |
5 | 16 | 7 | N25W43 | 0020 | CRO | DRI |
 |
 |
area: 0050 |
| S7930 | 2022.10.13 | 8 | 4 | S25E13 | 0020 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S7931 | 2022.10.14 | S13W21 | |||||||||
| 13124 | 2022.10.14 2022.10.16 |
5 | 24 | 12 | S35W40 | 0030 | DRO | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0180 |
| S7933 | 2022.10.14 | S13W21 | |||||||||
| S7934 | 2022.10.16 | 4 | 2 | S10E57 | 0010 | CRO |
 |
||||
| Total spot count: | 19 | 88 | 42 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 59 | 178 | 132 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 35 | 105 | 59 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 65 | 98 | 106 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.03 | 76.0 | 75.2 | 17.2 | 21.7 (+2.7) | 10.17 |
| 2021.04 | 75.9 | 76.4 | 24.5 | 24.8 (+3.1) | 8.40 |
| 2021.05 | 75.3 | 77.1 | 21.2 | 25.8 (+1.0) | 6.50 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.8 (+4.7) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.9 (+4.1) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | (74.2 projected, +5.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | (80.6 projected, +6.4) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | (86.5 projected, +5.9) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (93.7 projected, +7.2) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 75.4 | (100.2 projected, +6.5) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.3 | (105.2 projected, +5.0) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 146.4 (1) | 53.9 (2A) / 104.4 (2B) / 114.4 (2C) | (108.3 projected, +3.1) | (12.9) | |
| 2022.11 | (111.2 projected, +2.9) | ||||
| 2022.12 | (115.9 projected, +4.7) | ||||
| 2023.01 | (122.0 projected, +6.1) | ||||
| 2023.02 | (127.0 projected, +5.0) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (130.0 projected, +3.0) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
