The geomagnetic field was quiet on February 13. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 327 and 400 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to unsettled levels. SOHO MTOF data indicates the arrival of a weak CME early on February 14, probably the February 10 CME.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 189.2 - decreasing 33.5 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 132.59). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 4 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 3.5). Three hour interval K indices: 10112111 (planetary), 011121** (Boulder), 20001032 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux was at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 19 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 394) and in 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 237) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13213 [N31W74] produced several C flares
while rotating to the northwest limb.
Region 13214 [N12W58] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13215 [N24W34] was quiet and stable.
Region 13216 [N24W19] was quiet and stable.
Region 13217 [S12E08] decayed further and was mostly quiet.
Region 13218 [N10W08] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13219 [S07E00] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13220 [S13E25] was mostly quiet and stable.
Region 13221 [N16E21] was quiet and stable.
Region 13223 [N13E03] was quiet and stable.
Region 13224 [N21E22] was quiet and stable.
Region 13225 [S20W07] developed slowly and quietly.
New region 13226 [N10E34] emerged on February 12 and developed
quickly the next day when it was numbered by SWPC. The region is compact and
has multiple small magnetic deltas. Further M class flares are likely.
New region 13227 [S03E45] emerged on February 12 and was numbered by
SWPC the following day.
New region 13228 [S25E13] emerged on February 11 and was slowly
decaying on February 13 when it was noticed by SWPC.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8260 [S14W39] was quiet and stable.
S8264 [S10E18] was quiet and stable.
S8271 [S22W47] reemerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8279 [N22E43] was observed with tiny spots in an
old plage area.
C2+ flares:
Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
C3.3 | 00:04 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
C3.1 | 00:16 | S21E38 | 13220 | GOES16 | |
C2.7 | 00:58 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C2.7 | 03:29 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C3.4 | 04:00 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
C5.3 | 04:56 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
M1.0 | 05:18 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C6.2 | 07:05 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C4.8 | 08:07 | S25E25 | 13228 | GOES16 | simultaneous flares in ARs 13226 and 13213 |
C3.8 | 08:40 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C3.2 | 09:32 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C3.7 | 10:36 | 13213 | GOES16 | attributed to AR 13226 by SWPC | |
C4.5 | 10:47 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C4.7 | 11:42 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C3.7 | 12:11 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C3.7 | 13:05 | 13213 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to smaller, simultaneous flares in AR 13226 and 13217 by SWPC | |
C4.2 | 13:23 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
C3.9 | 13:40 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C6.5 | 14:35 | N11E41 | 13226 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13213 |
C4.5 | 14:48 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C7.7 | 15:40 | 13213 | GOES16 | incorrectly attributed to smaller, simultaneous flare in AR 13226 by SWPC | |
M1.4 | 15:56 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C3.3 | 18:17 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
C3.4 | 18:33 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C7.3 | 19:16 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
C3.1 | 21:01 | 13226 | GOES16 | ||
C3.3 | 21:35 | 13213 | GOES16 | ||
C2.9 | 23:51 | 13226 | GOES16 |
February 11: An impressive filament eruption began at approximately
10:50 UT to the east of AR 13216. The main part of the CME produced was fast
and not Earth directed, however, slower moving components of the CME
developed into a full halo CME. Effects could reach Earth on February 14.
February 12-13: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A northern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1130) will be Earth facing on February 14.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are likely on February 14-15 due to CME effects, isloated minor storm intervals are possible. Quiet to unsettled is expected for February 16.
Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
2K | 1K | ||||||||||
13209 | 2023.02.01 2023.02.03 |
N20W80 | location: N20W76 | ||||||||
13213 | 2023.02.04 2023.02.06 |
9 | 18 | 10 | N28W78 | 0140 | FAO | FAI |
beta-gamma location: N31W74 |
||
13214 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
6 | 11 | 7 | N11W60 | 0360 | EKO | EHO |
area: 0420 location: N12W58 |
||
13215 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
1 | N22W38 | 0001 | AXX |
location: N23W34 |
|||||
13216 | 2023.02.05 2023.02.06 |
1 | 9 | 3 | N24W22 | 0090 | HSX | CSO |
location: N24W19 area: 0150 |
||
S8250 | 2023.02.06 | S25W34 | |||||||||
S8254 | 2023.02.07 | N22W54 | |||||||||
13218 | 2023.02.07 2023.02.08 |
1 | 8 | 2 | N09W09 | 0005 | AXX | BXO |
location: N10W08 area: 0010 |
||
13217 | 2023.02.07 2023.02.08 |
7 | 27 | 10 | S10E08 | 0250 | DHO | CHO |
location: S12E08 area: 0320 |
||
13219 | 2023.02.08 2023.02.09 |
2 | 4 | 2 | S07W01 | 0010 | AXX | HRX | location: S07E00 | ||
S8259 | 2023.02.08 | N18E08 | |||||||||
S8260 | 2023.02.08 | 1 | S14W39 | 0003 | AXX | ||||||
S8261 | 2023.02.08 | S09W48 | |||||||||
13220 | 2023.02.09 2023.02.09 |
1 | 14 | 3 | S14E23 | 0150 | HHX | CHO |
area: 0270 location: S13E25 |
||
13221 | 2023.02.09 2023.02.09 |
4 | 20 | 7 | N14E21 | 0050 | CHO | CRO |
area: 0030 location: N16E21 SWPC classification is incorrect by a large margin |
||
S8264 | 2023.02.09 | 3 | S10E18 | 0007 | BXO | ||||||
13223 | 2023.02.10 2023.02.11 |
5 | 2 | N17E02 | 0008 | AXX | location: N13E03 | ||||
13224 | 2023.02.11 2023.02.11 |
3 | 8 | 3 | N51E21 | 0010 | AXX | HRX |
area: 0020 location: N21E22 SWPC location probably a typo |
||
13225 | 2023.02.11 2023.02.12 |
6 | 23 | 11 | S21W08 | 0030 | CRO | CRI |
area: 0050 location: S20W07 |
||
S8269 | 2023.02.11 | S23W40 | |||||||||
S8271 | 2023.02.11 | 1 | 1 | S22W47 | 0003 | AXX | |||||
13228 | 2023.02.11 2023.02.13 |
3 | 3 | 1 | S25E14 | 0010 | BXO | BXO | area: 0005 | ||
S8273 | 2023.02.11 | N27E33 | |||||||||
S8274 | 2023.02.11 | N22E41 | |||||||||
S8275 | 2023.02.11 | S04W12 | |||||||||
13226 | 2023.02.12 2023.02.13 |
9 | 36 | 21 | N11E33 | 0060 | DAI | DKC |
beta-gamma-delta location: N10E34 area: 0480 |
||
13227 | 2023.02.12 2023.02.13 |
3 | 8 | 4 | S03E42 | 0000 | BXO | CRO |
location: S03E45 area: 0035 |
||
S8278 | 2023.02.12 | S00W14 | |||||||||
S8279 | 2023.02.13 | 4 | N22E43 | 0010 | BXO | ||||||
Total spot count: | 55 | 204 | 87 | ||||||||
Sunspot number: | 185 | 394 | 237 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
Weighted SN: | 113 | 269 | 152 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 204 | 217 | 190 |
Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Measured | 1 AU | ||||
2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | 86.5 (+5.6) | 9.51 |
2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (92.4 projected, +5.9) | 10.92 |
2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (97.4 projected, +5.0) | 12.18 |
2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (100.5 projected, +3.1) | 11.16 |
2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (103.4 projected, +2.9) | 9.33 |
2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (108.2 projected, +4.8) | 10.99 |
2023.01 | 182.4 | 176.6 | 143.6 | (114.2 projected, +6.0) | 8.73 |
2023.02 | 172.8 (1) | 60.2 (2A) / 129.7 (2B) / 167.5 (2C) | (119.2 projected, +5.0) | (10.4) | |
2023.03 | (122.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
2023.04 | (127.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
2023.05 | (133.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
2023.06 | (136.8 projected, +3.3) | ||||
2023.07 | (136.3 projected, -0.5) | ||||
2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) |
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.