The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled on January 14. Weak CME effects were observed early in the day. A stronger CME was observed arriving at DSCOVR at 17:06 UT and caused minor storming early on January 15. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 404 and 601 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to minor storm levels.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 227.8 - increasing 72.2 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 127.43). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 9 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 9.3). Three hour interval K indices: 33220023 (planetary), 33222223 (Boulder), 54320134 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C4 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 451) and in 15 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 291) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13182 [S17W46] lost some area. Positive
polarity flux emerged and spearheaded negative polarity flux in the northern
spot section, a magnetic delta formed. Subsequently the region became
unstable and produced several C and M flares.
Region 13184 [S13E01] decayed slowly and was mostly quiet.
Region 13185 [N20W68] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13186 [N24E10] was mostly quiet and stable despite having a
weak magnetic delta in a trailing penumbra. A major flare is possible.
Region 13188 [S24E35] gained spots and was quiet.
Region 13189 [N20W40] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13190 [S14E59] has a huge leader spot and could produce a major flare.
Region 13191 [N10E52] developed further and has magnetic delta in a
northern penumbra. The region still has a compact spot layout and major
flares are possible.
Region 13192 [N18E62] was mostly quiet and stable. M flares are
possible.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8170 [N19E36] was quiet and stable. The region has reversed
polarities.
S8177 [N21E42] was quiet and stable.
S8178 [N10E62] was quiet and stable.
S8179 [S22E50] developed slowly and quietly.
S8181 [S21E42] decayed slowly and quietly.
New region S8182 [S22W18] emerged with many
tiny spots.
New region S8183 [S27W64] emerged with a tiny spot.
New region S8184 [S27E11] emerged with a tiny spot.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C6.2 | 00:27 | 13191 | GOES16 | ||
| M1.3 | 02:09 | 13191 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.5 | 04:38 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.7 | 07:07 | behind SW limb | S8155 | GOES16 | |
| C3.9 | 08:13 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.6 | 10:17 | 13192 | GOES16 | simultaneous flare in AR 13182 | |
| C7.0 | 11:06 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.6 | 11:28 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.8 | 11:42 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.9 | 12:07 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.9 | 12:46 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 12:54 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.0 | 13:50 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.7/1F | 14:39 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C6.8 | 14:58 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.5 | 15:33 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.5 | 15:54 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.5 | 16:32 | behind SW limb | S8155 | GOES16 | |
| C7.4 | 19:27 | 13192 | GOES16 | attributed to AR 13182 by SWPC | |
| C5.7 | 20:02 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| M3.5 | 20:21 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| M4.6 | 21:00 | 13182 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.3 | 22:38 | 13182 | GOES16 |
January 12-14: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1125) will likely become Earth facing on January 16.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to minor storm conditions are expected on January 15 due to CME effects. Quiet to unsettled is likely on January 16-17.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13182 | 2023.01.04 2023.01.05 |
15 | 49 | 24 | S18W48 | 0190 | DAI | DAI |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: S17W46 |
| 13185 | 2023.01.06 2023.01.09 |
6 | 10 | 3 | N19W69 | 0030 | CAO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N20W68 |
| 13184 | 2023.01.08 2023.01.08 |
13 | 45 | 24 | S12W00 | 0260 | EHO | FSO |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 0390 location: S13E01 |
| 13187 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
N16W38 |
 |
location: N14W35 | |||||||
| 13186 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
12 | 39 | 19 | N25E10 | 0410 | EKI | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: N24E10 area: 0750 |
| S8165 | 2023.01.09 | S07W52 | |||||||||
| 13188 | 2023.01.10 2023.01.12 |
5 | 17 | 11 | S23E33 | 0030 | DRI | DRI |
 |
 |
location: S24E35 area: 0080 |
| 13189 | 2023.01.11 2023.01.13 |
1 | 3 | 1 | N23W45 | 0010 | AXX | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N20W40 |
| S8170 | 2023.01.12 | 4 | 3 | N19E36 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
reversed polarities | ||
| 13191 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
9 | 18 | 13 | N11E55 | 0150 | DAI | DAC |
 |
 |
beta-delta location: N10E52 area: 0370 |
| 13192 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
8 | 24 | 11 | N19E61 | 0160 | DSI | FSI |
 |
 |
area: 0350 location: N18E62 |
| 13190 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
11 | 29 | 18 | S12E58 | 0510 | EKO | EKO |
 |
 |
location: S14E59 area: 0900 |
| S8174 | 2023.01.12 | N20W49 | |||||||||
| S8177 | 2023.01.13 | 4 | 2 | N21E42 | 0010 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8178 | 2023.01.13 | 4 | 2 | N10E62 | 0020 | AXX |
 |
 |
|||
| S8179 | 2023.01.13 | 17 | 6 | S22E50 | 0030 | BXO |
 |
 |
|||
| S8180 | 2023.01.13 | S18E07 |
 |
||||||||
| S8181 | 2023.01.13 | 1 | S22E42 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8182 | 2023.01.14 | 15 | 3 | S22W18 | 0030 | CRO |
 |
||||
| S8183 | 2023.01.14 | 1 | 1 | S27W64 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
||||
| S8184 | 2023.01.14 | 1 | S27E11 | 0002 | AXX |
 |
|||||
| Total spot count: | 80 | 281 | 141 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 170 | 451 | 291 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 133 | 327 | 187 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 187 | 248 | 233 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (86.0 projected, +5.1) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (91.4 projected, +5.4) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | 11.2 |
| 2023.01 | 179.6 (1) | 58.6 (2A) / 129.7 (2B) / 145.1 (2C) | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | (8.2) | |
| 2023.02 | (118.2 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (121.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (126.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (132.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (135.7 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
