The geomagnetic field was quiet on January 20. Solar wind speed at SOHO ranged between 350 and 541 km/sec. The high latitude magnetometer at Andenes recorded quiet to active levels. A coronal high speed stream, possibly associated with CH1125 began to influence the field early on January 21.
Solar flux density measured at 20h UT on 2.8 GHz was 217.5 - increasing 84.2 over the previous solar rotation. (Centered 1 year average SF at 1 AU - 183 days ago: 129.23). The Potsdam WDC planetary A index was 5 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap indices: 4.9). Three hour interval K indices: 11012211 (planetary), 11112322 (Boulder), 31001422 (Andenes).
The background x-ray flux is at the class C2 level (GOES 16).
At the time of counting spots (see image time), spots were observed in 17 active regions using 2K resolution (SN: 430) and in 14 active regions using 1K resolution (SN: 276) SDO/HMI images.
Region 13184 [S13W78] was mostly quiet and
stable.
Region 13186 [N22W72] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13188 [S23W42] was quiet and stable.
Region 13190 [S14W20] lost spots and area in the trailing spot
section. The region was the source of
several C flares and still has major flare potential.
Region 13191 [N11W28] was quiet and stable.
Region 13192 [N18W17] decayed slowly in the trailing spot section and
redeveloped a small magnetic delta in the leading spot section.
M class flares are possible.
Region 13195 [N21W32] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13196 [N12E17] decayed slowly and quietly.
Region 13197 [N17E29] developed slowly and quietly.
Region 13198 [N26E42] decayed slowly and quietly.
Spotted regions not observed (or interpreted
differently) by SWPC:
S8178 [N13W14] decayed slowly and quietly.
S8193 [N25E12] was quiet and stable.
S8194 [S25W32] was mostly unchanged and quiet.
S8195 [N12E60] was quiet and stable.
S8196 [N17E61] developed slowly and quietly. Note that SWPC considers
this and AR S8195 as one region.
S8198 [S14E17] was quiet and stable.
S8200 [N24E33] was quiet and stable.
C2+ flares:
| Magnitude | Peak time (UT) | Location | Source | Recorded by | Comment |
| C6.7 | 01:52 | S17W02 | 13190 | GOES16 | |
| C2.6 | 02:54 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.5 | 03:39 | 13196 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 05:44 | 13190 | GOES16 | LDE | |
| C4.5 | 06:32 | S8194 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.0 | 11:48 | S8194 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.8 | 12:57 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C5.3 | 14:07 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.4 | 16:39 | 13192 | GOES16 | ||
| C4.0 | 16:59 | 13192 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.1 | 17:43 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.7 | 18:39 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C2.9 | 20:21 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C7.3 | 22:47 | N10W14 | S8178 | GOES16 | |
| C2.4 | 23:12 | 13190 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 23:46 | 13184 | GOES16 | ||
| C3.0 | 00:00 | 13186 | GOES16 |
January 18-19: No obviously Earth directed CMEs were observed in available LASCO imagery.
January 20: A large filament eruption began near noon in the
southwest quadrant and apparently triggered a C5 flare in AR 13190 at 14:07
UT. A partial halo CME was observed in LASCO imagery. There is a slight
chance of CME effects at Earth on January 23 and 24.
[Coronal hole history (since October 2002)]
[Compare today's report to the situation one solar rotation ago:
28 days ago
27 days ago
26 days ago]
A small and poorly defined trans equatorial coronal hole (CH1125) was Earth facing on January 16. A southern hemisphere coronal hole (CH1126) will likely rotate across the central meridian on January 21.
Long distance low and medium frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation along paths north of due west over upper middle and high latitudes is poor to fair. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor.
Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are likely on January 21 due to a high speed coronal hole stream. Quiet to unsettled is expected for January 22-24 with a chance of active and minor storm intervals on January 23-24 should the January 20 CME arrive.
| Coronal holes (1) | Coronal mass ejection (2) | M and X class flares (3) |
1) Effects from a coronal hole
could reach Earth within the next 5 days. When the high speed
stream has arrived the color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48 hours.
Green: 0-30% probability, Yellow: 30-70% probability, Red: 70-100% probability.
(Click on image for 2K resolution).
4K resolution.
Compare to the previous day's image. 0.5K image
When available the active region map has a coronal hole polarity overlay where red (pink) is negative and blue is positive.
Data for all officially numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by NOAA/SWPC, all other regions are numbered sequentially as they emerge using the STAR spot number. Comments are my own, as is the STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SWPC or where SWPC has observed no spots. SWPC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region map above are the historic SWPC/USAF numbers. SWPC data considered to be not sufficiently precise (location, area, classification) are colored red.
| Active region | SWPC date numbered STAR detected |
Spot count | Location at midnight | Area | Classification | SDO / HMI 4K continuum image with magnetic polarity overlays |
Comment | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWPC/ USAF |
Magnetic (SDO) |
SWPC | STAR | Current | Previous | ||||||
| 2K | 1K | ||||||||||
| 13184 | 2023.01.08 2023.01.08 |
2 | 7 | 5 | S12W80 | 0090 | HSX | CSO |
 |
 |
location: S13W78 area: 0180 |
| 13186 | 2023.01.09 2023.01.10 |
4 | 3 | 2 | N24W67 | 0230 | ESO | CHO |
 |
 |
location N22W72 area: 0350 |
| 13188 | 2023.01.10 2023.01.12 |
5 | 1 | S23W37 | 0008 | BXO |
 |
 |
location: S23W42 | ||
| 13191 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
8 | 18 | 11 | N12W30 | 0220 | DAO | DAO |
 |
 |
location: N11W28 area: 0170 |
| 13192 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
32 | 55 | 29 | N16W15 | 0330 | FKI | EAI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma-delta location: N18W17 |
| 13190 | 2023.01.12 2023.01.13 |
14 | 54 | 32 | S15W18 | 0710 | EKI | EKI |
 |
 |
beta-gamma area: 1070 location: S14W20 |
| 13195 | 2023.01.13 2023.01.17 |
4 | 6 | 2 | N21W36 | 0010 | BXO | BXO |
 |
 |
location: N21W32 |
| S8178 | 2023.01.13 | 28 | 15 | N13W14 | 0050 | CRI |
 |
 |
|||
| 13194 | 2023.01.13 2023.01.15 |
4 | S24W31 | 0040 | CAO |
 |
location: S22W27 spotless, SWPC has moved the group to AR S8194 |
||||
| S8185 | 2023.01.16 | S13E19 | |||||||||
| S8186 | 2023.01.17 | S27W15 | |||||||||
| 13196 | 2023.01.17 2023.01.18 |
4 | 14 | 6 | N12E16 | 0010 | BXO | DRO |
 |
 |
area: 0025 |
| 13198 | 2023.01.18 2023.01.19 |
6 | 10 | 4 | N27E45 | 0030 | CAO | CAO |
 |
 |
area: 0110 location: N26E42 |
| 13197 | 2023.01.18 2023.01.19 |
4 | 15 | 8 | N24E32 | 0010 | BXO | CRI |
 |
 |
location: N17E29 SWPC position is way off area: 0035 |
| S8193 | 2023.01.18 | 4 | N25E12 | 0007 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8194 | 2023.01.19 | 19 | 12 | S25W32 | 0100 | DAI |
 |
 |
|||
| S8195 | 2023.01.19 | 1 | 1 | N12E60 | 0020 | HRX |
 |
 |
|||
| S8196 | 2023.01.19 | 17 | 8 | N17E61 | 0080 | DRI |
 |
 |
|||
| S8197 | 2023.01.19 | S11W25 |
 |
||||||||
| S8198 | 2023.01.19 | 1 | S14E17 | 0001 | AXX |
 |
 |
||||
| S8199 | 2023.01.19 | S49E13 |
 |
||||||||
| S8200 | 2023.01.19 | 3 | N24E33 | 0004 | BXO |
 |
 |
||||
| S8201 | 2023.01.19 | S16W51 |
 |
||||||||
| 13199 | 2023.01.20 | 5 | N15E61 | 0040 | CAO | SWPC apparently considers ARs S8195 and S8196 to be one group | |||||
| Total spot count: | 87 | 260 | 136 | ||||||||
| Sunspot number: | 197 | 430 | 276 | (total spot count + 10 * number of spotted regions) | |||||||
| Weighted SN: | 137 | 325 | 201 | (Sum of total spot count + classification weighting for each AR. Classification weighting: X=0, R=3, A/S=5, H/K=10) | |||||||
| Relative sunspot number (Wolf number): | 217 | 237 | 221 | ||||||||
| Month | Average solar flux | International sunspot number (WDC-SILSO) |
Smoothed sunspot number (4) | Average ap (3) |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Measured | 1 AU | ||||
| 2014.02 | 170.3 (cycle peak) |
166.3 | 146.1 (SC24 peak) | 110.5 | 10.70 |
| 2014.04 | 143.9 | 144.8 | 112.5 | 116.4 (solar max) | 7.88 |
| 2017.09 | 91.3 | 92.3 | 43.6 | 18.2 (-1.3) | 18.22 (cycle peak) |
| 2019.11 | 70.2 | 68.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 (-0.6) (Solar minimum using 365d smoothing: November 17, 2019) |
4.19 |
| 2019.12 | 70.8 | 68.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (-0.2) (ISN 13 months smoothed solar minimum) |
3.22 |
| 2021.06 | 79.4 | 81.8 | 25.0 | 27.6 (+1.8) | 5.52 |
| 2021.07 | 81.0 | 83.6 | 34.3 | 31.4 (+3.8) | 5.51 |
| 2021.08 | 77.7 | 79.7 | 22.0 | 35.4 (+4.0) | 6.19 |
| 2021.09 | 87.0 | 88.2 | 51.3 | 40.2 (+4.8) | 6.33 |
| 2021.10 | 88.9 | 88.3 | 37.4 | 45.2 (+5.0) | 7.38 |
| 2021.11 | 86.2 | 84.4 | 34.8 | 50.8 (+5.6) | 9.83 |
| 2021.12 | 103.0 | 99.8 | 67.5 | 55.9 (+5.1) | 6.40 |
| 2022.01 | 103.8 | 100.5 | 55.3 | 60.1 (+4.2) | 8.92 |
| 2022.02 | 109.1 | 106.5 | 60.9 | 64.7 (+4.6) | 10.46 |
| 2022.03 | 117.0 | 115.8 | 78.6 | 68.7 (+4.0) | 10.20 |
| 2022.04 | 130.8 | 131.7 | 84.0 | 73.0 (+4.3) | 11.79 |
| 2022.05 | 133.8 | 136.8 | 96.5 | 77.2 (+4.2) | 7.48 |
| 2022.06 | 116.1 | 119.8 | 70.3 | 80.9 (+3.7) | 8.20 |
| 2022.07 | 125.4 | 129.5 | 91.4 | (86.0 projected, +5.1) | 9.51 |
| 2022.08 | 114.2 | 117.1 | 74.6 | (91.4 projected, +5.4) | 10.92 |
| 2022.09 | 135.1 | 136.5 | 96.0 | (96.3 projected, +4.9) | 12.18 |
| 2022.10 | 133.5 | 132.7 | 95.4 | (99.5 projected, +3.2) | 11.16 |
| 2022.11 | 123.4 | 120.7 | 77.6 | (102.3 projected, +2.8) | 9.33 |
| 2022.12 | 147.9 | 143.4 | 113.1 | (107.1 projected, +4.8) | 11.13 |
| 2023.01 | 193.1 (1) | 93.1 (2A) / 144.6 (2B) / 163.6 (2C) | (113.1 projected, +6.0) | (9.2) | |
| 2023.02 | (118.2 projected, +5.1) | ||||
| 2023.03 | (121.3 projected, +3.1) | ||||
| 2023.04 | (126.7 projected, +5.4) | ||||
| 2023.05 | (132.5 projected, +5.8) | ||||
| 2023.06 | (135.7 projected, +3.2) | ||||
| 2023.11 | (142.5 projected max SC25) | ||||
1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux value at 2800 MHz
and any corrections applied to that measurement.
2A) Current impact on the monthly sunspot number based on the Boulder (NOAA/SWPC) sunspot number (accumulated daily sunspots / month days).
2B) Boulder SN current month average to date.
2C) STAR SDO 1K Wolf number 30 day average.
3) Running average based on the quicklook and definitive Potsdam WDC ap indices. Values in red
are based on the definitive international
GFZ Potsdam WDC ap indices.
4) Source: SIDC-SILSO.
This report has been prepared by Jan Alvestad. It is based on the analysis of data from whatever sources are available at the time the report is prepared. All time references are to Universal Time. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.
SDO images are courtesy of NASA/SDO and the AIA, EVE, and HMI science teams.
